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Al-Qaeda turns against Pakistan, Saudi
Arabia
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - With the recent release of audio and
video tapes of Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman
al-Zawahiri - which US intelligence experts say are
"most likely authentic" - debate has once again
intensified on al-Qaeda, and just how successful the
"war on terror" has been in curtailing its activities.
Asia Times Online investigations, based on
interviews with intelligence sources of various
backgrounds, police experts and decisionmakers, reveal
that in the two years since September 11, when the US
vowed to eliminate bin Laden and al-Qaeda, the terror
organization has suffered numerous setbacks, but it has
been forced to redefine its operations, tactics and
targets.
Bin Laden's International Islamic
Front, an umbrella organization for jihadi terrorist
organizations of which al-Qaeda is an element, has
focused its attention primarily on attacking US and
Western interests in a number of countries, and this
will continue.
For al-Qaeda in particular,
though, it has been badly affected by a change of
fortunes in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, where it had
enjoyed what amounted to a truce, if not active support
from some quarters. A number of al-Qaeda suspects are
now believed to be in Saudi jails, while in Pakistan,
which has come under intense US pressure, the blind eye
that once gazed on al-Qaeda is now looking with 20-20
vision.
As a direct result of this, al-Qaeda
will open a new front in these two countries. Indeed,
the "ceasefire" that it followed in Saudi Arabia - bin
Laden's country of birth - has already been broken.
Among the 14,000 male members of the Saudi royal
family there is a strong but sidelined lobby of princes
who support bin Laden. They do not necessarily agree
with his strict Wahhabi agenda, rather, they seek to use
him as a means of getting at the ruling elite. In terms
of its new mission, al-Qaeda will actively play along
with this. After all, if nothing else, it still needs
the funds that apparently flow from its supporters in
the kingdom.
In Pakistan, too, the knives,
literally, are going to be drawn. From the early stages
of the "war on terror", al-Qaeda and the Taliban were
assured by Pakistan that the country would wear two
faces - one acceptable to the US, the other friendly
towards al-Qaeda and the Taliban, the latter,
especially, having enjoyed long-time support from
Pakistan. As a result, President General Pervez
Musharraf made much of his alliance with counterpart
George W Bush on the international stage, while on the
domestic front the crackdown on terror was token, at
best.
This changed, though, and in time, whether
through US insistence or for another agenda, Musharraf's
crackdown has begun to bite. And it hurts.
In
the past, Pakistan has figured only as a transitory port
for al-Qaeda, and its members have not been involved in
any operations in the country - neither the murder of US
journalist Daniel Pearl nor the Sheraton bomb blast in
which a number of French civilian workers were killed.
These and other missions were carried out by local
groups. Indeed, only one Pakistani is known to have
entered into the ranks of al-Qaeda.
Contrary to
widespread belief, Shiekh Omar, who was arrested in
connection with the Pearl killing, although he had
contact with a few al-Qaeda people, was an independent
operator. The only Pakistani with a record of closeness
to al-Qaeda is Maulana Fazalur Rehman Khalil, chief of
the banned Harkatul Mujahideen, who is now underground
on the instructions of Pakistani intelligence
organizations.
At present, according to the
contacts that Asia Times Online spoke to, there is a
realization in al-Qaeda that Musharraf is their only
enemy in the country as he is the one now orchestrating
the crackdown. Remove him, they argue, and the
environment will once again be favorable to them. As a
result, according to these same well-placed sources,
Musharraf has been pencilled in at the top of al-Qaeda's
hit list, and attempts on his life can be expected in
the near future.
Pakistani security agencies
have made Musharraf fully aware of these developments.
President House in the capital Islamabad is now
offlimits as it is too difficult to secure. Musharraf
spends most of his time in Army House in Rawalpindi, or
in general headquarters there, even when performing his
day-to-day civilian functions.
Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan, then, remain al-Qaeda's new and immediate
targets, even before US-related targets. This includes
Iraq, too, where it has only a few operators, mostly
from Jordan of Iraqi origin who had contact with Saddam
Hussein's Ba'ath Party before the war. They are now in
Iraq, but they are not top line operators and not
capable for carrying out high-profile action against the
US-led forces.
Al-Qaeda's
weapons
There is no proof of al-Qaeda possessing
weapons of mass destruction. However, some Western
intelligence networks believe that it has now developed
a strategy to use small chemical and biological weapons
that can be obtained or developed with limited
facilities. There are several reasons for this:
Their undetectability by traditional anti-terrorist
sensor systems (and hence by conventional
countermeasures)
The time-lag (in many cases) between release of an
agent and its perceived effects on humans, allowing the
perpetrator(s) to escape
In at least some cases, the lack of a "signature",
enabling an assassin, for example, to disguise the cause
of death
Their adaptability to small demonstration attacks as
an indication of resolve and ability to carry out the
threat of a much more devastating attack
Their capacity - unobtainable by other means - to
inflict heavy casualties on the military forces of a
state or to seriously damage its economy
The degree of sheer terror (and hence social
disruption) that may be instilled in a target
population, due to the particularly insidious nature
(microscopic, colorless, and/or odorless) of the agents
in question.
In this regard, a key leader who
had the opportunity to act at the forefront of the
campaign against terror gave his views to Asia Times
Online.
Former Pakistan interior minister,
retired Lieutenant-General Moinuddin Haider, was one of
the most powerful people to occupy the position, during
which time he forcibly opened the previously closed
tribal areas to the Pakistani armed forces in their
efforts to track down terror networks in Pakistan - a
mission that led to his elder brother being killed by
terrorists.
"All militant groups have
traditionally used light weapons against their enemies.
Then they started using ordinary explosive material, and
now they have started using human bodies [strapped] with
explosives for suicide attacks. This is the kind of
strategy I am familiar with about al-Qaeda. As far as
chemical weapons are concerned, I have never come across
any information which confirms this kind of information.
Moreover, the US has been in Afghanistan for a long
time. I do not know of any labs it has discovered where
al-Qaeda developed chemical weapons," Moinuddin Haider
said.
During Haider's time more than 400
al-Qaeda suspects were rounded up, but he still believes
that the network is intact. "We had a list of those who
were high profile figures. I believe that there are a
lot of unidentified faces who are roaming freely."
Haider maintains that al-Qaeda and other
militant groups tend to react to situations, so as long
as there are events for them to react to, they will
flourish.
"We conducted a psychoanalysis of all
prisoners who were arrested crossing the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border after the US invasion [early
2002]. You will be surprised that many of them come from
urban and cosmopolitan backgrounds. Their reason for
fighting in Afghanistan was a kind of reaction. You
know, everybody can view what is happening in Palestine
and Chechnya, but nobody speaks against that terrorism.
People's houses are demolished and missiles are fired on
their populations, so they think that if they are going
to die, why not make a suicide attack and kill their
aggressors too. This is the thinking that is growing all
over the Muslim world, it is a reaction. I think the
real and long-term remedy is not suppression, but
justice," Haider says.
Al-Qaeda's objectives
now, then, are to deal with what it considers "traitors"
in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. However, this is not all.
Asia Times Online has learned that new
operations are being planned for a new team against US
interests in the Central Asian republics, where
apparently, there are about 2,000 al-Qaeda operators
made up of Uzbeks and Chechans returning from
Afghanistan.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online
Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
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