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India pulls Sri Lankan
strings
By Ramtanu Maitra
A
two-pronged intervention by India and the United States
over the past several days has helped avert a full-blown
crisis in Sri Lanka, following President Chandrika
Kumaratunga's peremptory sacking of three cabinet
ministers - including the powerful Defense Minister
Tilak Marapana - as well as the dismissal of parliament
and a day later the imposition of a nationwide
emergency.
Kumaratunga's actions, which have all
the earmarks of a coup attempt, coincided with Sri
Lankan Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's meeting
with US President George W Bush in Washington. The
crucial White House meeting was to secure formal US
support for the peace-process to end the two-decade-old
ethnic war between the Tamils and Sinhalas of Sri Lanka,
and to enhance trade and economic ties with the US. The
meeting took on added significance as it followed
similar meetings Wickremesinghe has recently held with
the heads of state of Japan, India and the European
Union.
By November 5, in response to growing
international concern over the future of the peace
process, Kumaratunga pledged her commitment to the
ceasefire between the government and the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and declared that she had
no intention of "resuming or provoking" hostilities with
the rebels. But it is no secret that her actions are a
deliberate strike at the Norwegian-brokered peace
efforts and the ceasefire that has been in force for
some time.
Two days later, on November 7, Indian
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee told Kumaratunga
that India was "anxious" about the recent political
developments on the island, and that a constitutional
crisis must be avoided. The peace process needs to
continue, he told her, and a solution to current
problems found through "internal political dialogue".
That same day, Kumaratunga called for a "grand alliance"
of all "national and patriotic forces", and backed down
on the declaration of a state of emergency.
India's advice had also been delivered by the
US, which in addition withheld the signing of the free
trade agreement that had been slated for the Washington
visit. Later, to underscore that instability would not
be tolerated, the US announced that joint US-Sri Lankan
military exercises were to continue as scheduled.
The upheaval in Colombo may eventually lead to
an attempt to form a new government under the People's
Alliance, backed by Kumaratunga. In the meantime,
however, the danger is that with the prime minister
ostensibly weakened and Kumaratunga's credibility
already low, the most aggressive factions within both
the Tamil and the Sinhala communities will find in the
president's moves an open invitation to provoke a
violent showdown. India's ability to weigh in critically
and constructively in the current turmoil is testimony
to the progress New Delhi has made in reshaping and
deepening ties with Sri Lanka.
Behind New
Delhi's constructive role
Over the past few
years, the relationship between New Delhi and Colombo
has improved dramatically. Today, the Delhi-Colombo tie
is a privileged one, based on total trust and
willingness to cooperate on each side. Moreover, India's
present-day policies toward Sri Lanka have Washington's
open endorsement.
Speaking to rediff.com on
November 3, US Deputy Secretary of State Richard
Armitage said it is up to India whether to play a
"catalytic role" in the Sri Lankan peace process.
Expressing concern over the on-going violence in Sri
Lanka, Armitage said: "The overwhelming interest we have
is one of humanity. And that is the development of Sri
Lanka. We want this island - this nation of over 20
million - to be a full, complete partner in the economic
life not only of South Asia, but of the globe. We see no
reason why Sri Lanka can't be an engine of growth in
South Asia and I look forward to the day when it will
be."
US support to bringing Sri Lankan security
under the Indian umbrella was evident when the USS Sides
(FFG 14) completed port visits to Cochin, India and
Colombo in May. At the time, USS Sides commander Octavio
Manduley issued a statement saying, "The United States
shares many common interests with India and Sri Lanka as
well as the other countries of the Indian Ocean region,
including mutual security and the prosperity of our
people. Port visits like these two help contribute to
those goals."
Along with security concerns that
India and Sri Lanka share, Armitage was referring to the
recent strengthening of the Indo-Sri Lanka relationship
with a qualitative boost in economic ties - a
development identified with Wickremesinghe.
In
1998, India and Sri Lanka signed a free trade agreement
(FTA). Despite India's reluctance to sign it at the
time, the accord was inked because of the Sri Lankan
initiative. Under the agreement, India vowed to
eliminate tariffs on 1,000 Sri Lankan products over a
period of three years, and Sri Lanka promised to do away
with tariffs on 900 Indian products within eight years.
The development was hailed by a section within Sri Lanka
as a "landmark agreement" because it provided Sri Lankan
manufacturers with access to the vast Indian market.
But others in Sri Lanka criticized it, fearing a
danger of downsizing and closures with resultant mass
unemployment and a setback to indigenous technologies.
However, the success of the FTA became visible within a
short period of time. According to recent statements by
Central Bank of Sri Lanka Governor A S Jayawardena,
there has been a huge improvement in two-way trade
between India and Sri Lanka since the FTA was signed. He
views it as a prospective model for similar agreements,
not only with countries in the South Asia region, but
elsewhere. For instance, Sri Lanka has signed a
preliminary agreement with the US, and a final agreement
is expected in the near future.
"Even a small
country can have an advantage over a large country
because of specialization," Jayawardena points out,
discussing the accomplishments of the FTA. Likewise,
Indian industry was worried about products from Sri
Lanka flooding the market. That also did not happen. The
genius of Wickremesinghe was in realizing the essence
that economic relations could be increased multifold,
and made a precursor to the much broader regional
economic cooperation which has so far eluded the South
Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in
its two decades of existence. The Sri Lankan prime
minister's vision is for regional economic integration
through free trade, shared infrastructure and expanded
physical connectivity across borders. On paper, all
seven of SAARC's member nations - Bangladesh, Bhutan,
India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka - are
committed to such an agenda.
Economic
partnership
The fast growing economic and trade
ties between Sri Lanka and India were given a boost when
the prime ministers of the two countries formally
received the first two copies of the reports of the
Indo-Lanka Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement
(CEPA) in New Delhi last month. A decision had been
taken in June 2002 to expand economic ties from the
current trade in goods to cover new areas of economic
cooperation. The two prime ministers appointed an
India-Sri Lanka joint study group in April to make
recommendations for the establishment of a partnership.
Its report subsequently pointed out that entering into a
comprehensive partnership agreement would take the two
countries to a qualitatively new level of engagement.
The CEPA replaces the existing trade agreement,
which was restricted to a list of goods for trade
between the two countries and covers a very wide
spectrum of trade and economic areas such as service,
aviation, transport, tourism and investment. In fact,
the agreement in general allows the two countries to
enter into broad negotiations covering all service
sectors and modes of supply within the GATT framework.
Besides, it facilitates greater investment flows by
addressing identified regulatory and operational
constraints, helps implement measures to enhance
economic cooperation, and paves the way for trade and
investment liberalization.
In addition to the
economic ties now enhanced, Sri Lanka has indicated that
it is most likely to award oil and gas exploration
rights off the island's northwest coast to India's Oil
and Natural Gas Corp.
"We feel that Indian
companies will be at an advantage, especially in the
Cauvery Basin, because they are familiar with the
region," Daham Wimalasena, chairman of Ceylon Petroleum
Corp, said recently. Records indicate that Sri Lanka had
carried out a drilling exploration program more than 20
years ago, but did not find any oil. Now, Wimalasena
concludes, the government cannot afford further
drilling.
The peace process
The moves
to enhance bilateral economic relations between India
and Sri Lanka were not being carried out in a vacuum.
They were triggered at a time when international efforts
were afoot to bring about a political solution to the
two-decade-old ethnic hostilities in Sri Lanka. They
took place also at a time when New Delhi was pushing
hard to develop concrete economic and investment ties
with Southeast Asia, East Asia, China and the SAARC
nations. In addition, India, too, has endorsed the peace
moves.
It is no secret that Wickremesinghe's
three official working visits to India since his
government came to power in December, 2001 have brought
about a sea of change in Indo-Sri Lankan relations. It
is widely acknowledged both in Colombo and in New Delhi
that the Sri Lankan prime minister considers relations
with India one of the cornerstones of his foreign,
economic and national security policies. In fact,
whether it is publicly admitted by Colombo or not, the
Sri Lankan government has long realized that the peace
process between the Tigers and Colombo is a non-starter
without acknowledging the fact that India is a vital
component of the process. In recent months, the
Europeans and Americans have also made clear India's
importance in working out a solution of the Sri Lankan
imbroglio.
It is widely known by now that in the
1980s, particularly during Indira Gandhi's regime, India
harbored and trained Tamil Tigers, and provided
operational intelligence to the LTTE. There was a time
when the Tigers used Tamil Nadu, the southernmost Indian
state of some 55 million Indian Tamils, as a sanctuary
for Tamil opposition groups, including the LTTE. It was
pointed out by Sri Lankan analyst Gaston de Rosayro that
as late as 1996, New Delhi had warned Colombo that a
former south Indian-based militant group had been
attempting to mobilize political support among radical
groups for the Tigers. But it became evident later that
the overtures by the Tamil Nadu-based Eelam National
Democratic Left Front to garner support for the Sri
Lankan guerillas had had little impact on the Indian
Tamils. The goodwill that the Sri Lankan Tamil
extremists once enjoyed among Indian Tamils had
evaporated like a bottle of camphor during the 1990s.
This development provided New Delhi with a mandate to
act tough against the Tigers, but without taking
recourse to vengeance.
Sri Lanka recognizes that
India has been circumspect throughout the last 20 months
of peace talks between Colombo and the Tigers. By not
demanding extradition of Tiger supreme Velupillai
Prabhakaran, who has been tried in absentia in India and
found guilty of the murder of former Indian prime
minister Rajiv Gandhi, at an early stage of talks, New
Delhi paid heed to Colombo's concerns on the sensitive
extradition issue. Colombo feared that a demand for
extradition of Prabhakaran by New Delhi would
preemptively collapse the peace talks.
Security concerns
New Delhi appears to
be aware at this point that it cannot afford to
perpetuate yet another serious security problem in the
neighborhood. According to analysts in Colombo,
Wickremesinghe's official visit to Delhi last month was
not only to strengthen economic ties, but also to
establish formal military ties constituting a defense
pact.
As the joint statement issued subsequently
said: "The two prime ministers discussed the ongoing
cooperation in training and supply of equipment to the
Sri Lankan defense forces, and agreed that the two sides
will commence discussions with a view to conclude a
defense cooperation agreement at the earliest."
Wickremesinghe reportedly pressed for the
signing of a Defense Cooperation Agreement. India is
understood to have kept the door open for discussions on
the matter at an appropriate time, as reported by the
Delhi-based news daily, The Hindustan Times. It is a
moot question whether Kumaratunga's sudden act was to
bring about an end to that process.
On the other
hand, it should be noted that although there had been no
formal agreement between New Delhi and Colombo on joint
naval surveillance, the two countries joined hands
during these 20 months to put up a joint naval blockade
across the Palk Strait, which separates Sri Lanka's
northernmost tip from the Indian state of Tamil Nadu.
This blockade was aimed at preventing the Tiger cadres
from running guns and drugs, ferrying the Tiger cadres
and smuggling in fuel from the Indian coastal areas.
It is evident that no matter what New Delhi and
Colombo work out as a security arrangement, the vital
Tamil issue will be subsumed within it. Those in Colombo
who find it difficult to accept the growing power of
India in the region will eventually come to recognize
that the huge Indian republic cannot allow the festering
of an on-going security problem on its threshold.
India's priority on resolving the Tamil-Sinhala
conflict reflects the international convergence on
security issues. Recent reports from the US embassy in
Colombo indicate that about 30 US Air Force experts have
begun a joint survey of Sri Lanka's airfields to assist
their local counterparts with their security, medical
and engineering needs. For the past eight years or so,
the Tigers have claimed that Sri Lankan troops were
being afforded extensive combat-training in the southern
Wirawila district, where US Special Forces have set up a
sophisticated military training camp. The Colombo
government, while maintaining a diplomatic silence on
the issue of foreign intervention, had not denied any of
the rebel allegations.
In reality, the US is not
only involved in training the Sri Lankan military, but
is also selling military hardware to Colombo. Despite
the measures undertaken by Colombo, India is aware that
the Tamil Tigers remain a potent force. In mid-October,
Defense Minister Tilak Marapana admitted that the Tigers
"have gradually crept in and established a stronger
foothold". As a result of this aggressive posture by the
Tigers during the period of ceasefire, Colombo has
increased defense outlays in its budget and made some
procurements from Russia, China and Israel to update
equipment for the military.
The threat posed by
the LTTE was also addressed recently in the United
Kingdom, which had long been the international
headquarters of the Tamil Tigers. Recent reports
indicate that the Tigers are in the process of winding
down operations in London in the wake of tough UK
anti-terrorism laws. Sri Lanka has conveyed its "serious
concerns" to South Africa that the violent separatist
group may shift its headquarters there. "The South
African government has been forewarned about this
possibility and they have taken this question on board,"
said foreign ministry spokesman Ravinatha Aryasinha.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times Online Co, Ltd. All
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