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For a
country where astrology plays such a significant part in
people's lives, it is unsurprising that observers are
seeking to foretell election strategies from the results
of the current round of state elections. As the
situation in Delhi illustrates, there is, however, much
more at play in the political landscape than just divine
timing.
Speculation is rife. A solid Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) win in two of the four state polls
this week will result in elections earlier next year
than the scheduled October date for national elections,
possibly as early as February. This assumes, however,
that politics is fought on the same issues at state and
federal level, which it clearly isn't. It is, for
example, difficult to imagine the rising price of onions
thwarting the BJP's national chances, as it did during
Delhi's last elections in 1998. Similarly, it is
unimaginable that Sheila Dikshit would have anything
like the power and presence in the federal arena that
she enjoys as Delhi's chief minister. The electorate
votes on very different issues locally than it does
during parliamentary polls, otherwise, on the back of
its representation in state governments, the pundits
would have already forecast a Congress win in national
polls, packed their crystal balls and gone home.
That is not to say that elections will not take
place early in 2004. After all, if the BJP performs well
in this election round, it might attempt to maintain the
election-winning momentum with a speedy election
campaign and early polls. (Early trends show that the
BJP is leading in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, while
Congress is gaining in Chattisgarh and Delhi). Early
polls would evidently limit the potential for things to
go wrong, such as a poor monsoon during 2004 that would
prompt a slump in both growth and public goodwill, or a
breakdown in the fledgling peace process with Pakistan.
Furthermore, there has been considerable speculation as
to whether the government can afford another populist
budget, and holding elections in February would
effectively bypass the issue, allowing it to push
through a tighter budget in March.
Similarly,
however, there are equally compelling reasons why it
will schedule elections for later in the year. On a
practical level, later elections will provide the BJP
with the opportunity to try to enhance its prospects in
the larger states, particularly Uttar Pradesh (UP). By
all accounts, the party is in a mess in UP. Bettering
its chances in UP, along with other electorate-heavy
states, would secure the party a greater chance at
taking power at federal level. From a more symbolic
perspective, the government is likely to wait until late
2004 so that it can cement its claim to be the only
non-Congress government to have lasted a full five-year
term in office, following the 1999 rather than the 1998
elections. This is a significant achievement, and would
be a fitting high point on which the popular Prime
Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee could bow out of politics.
To some extent, however, all this forecasting
misses the point. As hard as it might be to believe,
there is something more interesting going on in these
state elections than just the impact that they might
have on the timing of 2004's elections. One striking
feature of these polls is the issue of good governance
and public accountability. Somewhat ironically,
considering the scandals that have intermittently dogged
the current government, it was the BJP and its coalition
allies who campaigned on the issue, aiding their win in
1999. That said, while it remains a weak concept at
national level, good governance is becoming a feature of
political life at state level. Nowhere is this more
apparent than in Delhi, where Congress is almost assured
of victory as a result of its performance in office.
During the past five years, among other things,
Delhi's authorities can point to a 30 percent reduction
in pollution levels as a result of the introduction of
compressed natural gas across the whole of the public
transport sector; the opening of the first section of an
ultra-modern subway system, which will by 2007 form an
important part of the capital's wider integrated
transport system; and most recently an "effective"
campaign against dengue fever, which may in fact have
been more the result of a natural decline in the disease
with the onset of the cold weather than any proactive
public health measures. Still, the authorities have
showed a willingness and ability to respond to the
citizens' needs and importantly, have made this concept
of performance a credible election platform. This
demonstration of good governance and its evident success
could end India's traditional tendency towards
anti-incumbency voting, and marks a significant
development in the democratic process. As a result, for
the first time in recent decades, the electorate is
expected to give credit to good performance in the case
of Delhi.
If this correlation between
performance and electoral support can be emulated more
widely, the potential impact could be wide-ranging,
providing India with a significant opportunity to tackle
some of its most fundamental issues. Corruption and
widespread bureaucratic inefficiency remain the twin
bugbears of all foreign investors to India. Federal
government has traditionally squirmed at the prospect of
redressing the system, not least because large swathes
of it have an interest in maintaining the status quo.
Think of the potential though, if the electorate demands
results and performance becomes a deciding factor in
election outcomes. Here, we have to be careful not to
get carried away; the idea of accountability remains in
its infancy in Delhi, and in large parts of India, isn't
even in an embryonic stage of development. Returning
once more to Delhi, Dikshit recently lamented in an
interview with the United Kingdom's Financial Times that
widespread corruption continues within Delhi's civil
service. She also told of her administration's attempts
to introduce mechanized garbage removal procedures
meeting with resistance from municipal workers fearing
for their jobs; and revealed that yes, the price of
onions was still a serious issue and had resulted in
lorry loads being delivered ahead of the elections in an
attempt to keep local prices stable.
As this
testimony illustrates, problems remain, but a Congress
win in Delhi will underline the trend towards political
performance being rewarded with electoral support. If
the major parties are prepared to seriously note these
developments, this relationship with the electorate has
the long-term potential to take the fortunes of the BJP
and Congress beyond the celestial boundaries. Crystal
balls aside, this continued democratic development could
ultimately herald the day when India sees the return of
a strong, single-party federal government.
Elizabeth Mills is an Asia analyst for
the London-based consultancy, World Markets Research
Centre.
Speaking Freely is an Asia
Times Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click hereif you
are interested in contributing.
(Copyright 2003, Elizabeth Mills)
Dec 5, 2003
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