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Pakistan plays a canny
game
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - President General Pervez
Musharraf's latest offer to India under which he
says that Pakistan is ready to drop its
long-standing demand for a plebiscite in the
disputed territory of Kashmir and resolve the
issue by "meeting halfway somewhere" appears at
first glance to be another U-turn in Pakistan's
policy.
In fact, it is a marvelous piece
of diplomacy on the part of Pakistan and a
reflection of the mindset of the person
(Musharraf) who was the architect of the audacious
Kargil incident in 1999 that led to a brief war
between the two countries.
Behind
Musharraf's latest offer is the "Chanab" formula,
which envisages the division of Muslim-majority
Kashmir along religious lines. The formula was
basically devised by a United States think tank,
and it has officially been rejected by both India
and Pakistan.
Musharraf's offer is
seemingly a bold one designed to put India on the
back foot, for the longer Delhi dithers, the more
they will appear to be the recalcitrant party,
especially as the United States is exerting
pressure on both sides to resolve the problem "by
meeting each other halfway". In US terminology,
though, this is tantamount to calling for the
Chanab formula, or any other formula that will
divide Kashmir between the two countries.
Under the Chanab solution, the parts of
Kashmir that are presently administered by
Pakistan and India would be partitioned instead in
such a way that the Muslim-majority areas would be
allowed to join Pakistan, and the areas where
Hindus and Buddhists are in the majority would
remain with India.
If put into effect,
most of the areas that are already in Pakistan's
control would remain with it. However, Pakistan
would also get most parts of Jammu and Kashmir
state (Indian-run Kashmir), including the summer
capital Srinagar. India would retain most of the
Jammu region, as well as Ladakh and some of the
areas adjoining it. At present, India holds about
45 percent of the disputed region, Pakistan over
33 percent and China the remainder.
Pakistan has recently begun informally
floating this idea, for, as mentioned, it is
backed by the US as being the only way in which
the only war theater left in South Asia can be
tackled, even though Islamabad and Delhi are not
keen on the idea.
On the Indian side,
acceptance of a formula based on religious lines
would be the antithesis of the Indian
establishment's mindset, which opposed the
partition plans of British India in 1947 that led
to the creation of India and Pakistan. At the same
time, Kashmiri Pundits (Brahmins) want their own
Kashmir identity, and they would not back such a
partition plan.
On the Pakistan side, such
an agreement would not be backed by China - a
major ally - because if Ladakh remained with
India, the only supply line to the Indian arsenal
in Ladakh near the Chinese border would be though
the Kashmir Valley, which would be under
Pakistan's control. So if the Chanab formula is
adopted, or a similar agreement, India and
Pakistan would have to sign some sort of treaty
that would guarantee passage for the Indian army
and supplies for Ladakh. This would in other words
be a clear military alliance that would be viewed
in China as against its interests.
So by
initiating talks on any give-and-take now,
Musharraf is really buying some time, which he can
use to reestablish supply lines to militants now
stuck in the Kashmir Valley as a result of
Musharraf, under US pressure, being forced to
withdraw support to them.
The general's
latest move, perhaps, is no more than a diplomatic
Kargil.
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