WINDOW ON INDIA Not a bad year for Mother
India By Sanjiv Kumar
NEW
DELHI - India sang songs - from Bollywood hits to
nuanced diplomatese in 2003, and joint peace drills and
peace theater attempted to stitch together its
unraveling relations with Pakistan. In the process,
India took center stage in the sub-continent, despite
communal violence and terrorism, corruption in politics
and sundry domestic problems. An upsurge in the economy,
an assertive international presence at the World Trade
Organization in Cancun, Mexico, Bollywood winning
hearts, if not minds, even overseas, and the feel-good
cricket win Down Under - all in all, it has rather been
a satisfactory year for the world's most populous
democracy.
India's offer of the "hand of
friendship", and Pakistan's cautious but positive
response, leave the world waiting to see if the two
nuclear adversaries really mean what they say. Is this a
turning point for lasting peace between India and
Pakistan? Or is it yet another false dawn like the 1999
Lahore, Pakistan, and the 2001 Agra summits. The present
moment could well produce a breakthrough if both sides
seize the opportunity and do the necessary spadework
without raising unrealistic expectations.
History calls for caution,
though. Every time India and Pakistan resume talk with
zest, they discuss everything except the perennial
issues, especially the disputed territory of Kashmir,
for which the meetings are convened, and later both
characterize their dialogue as "constructive".
Interestingly, but not surprising, the history of talks
between the two neighbors is littered with failed
promises and false claims.
Women make
headway The temple-mosque tangle remained
unresolved, after the Shankaracharya of Kanchi Kamakoti
Peetam, Sri Jayendra Saraswati's negotiations with the
All India Muslim Personal Law Board over the Ram
Janmbhoomi-Babri Masjid site ran into rough weather. The
matter remains sub-judice. However, the related evidence
of terrorism was not as perceptible as last year.
It seems that the healing touch of Jammu and
Kashmir chief minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed paid some
dividends, but the larger question still remains. On the
brighter side, stray incidents notwithstanding, major
communal violence did not surface again and the country
is well on the way to exorcising the ghost of
Hindu-Muslim communal violence in Gujarat.
Though India has improved its position on the
survey of the world's most corrupt nations, where it
ranked 82nd out of 133 countries, several episodes
proved once again that corruption has become a way of
life in the country. Two episodes involving politicians
were a "disgrace and a black spot" on the future of
Indian democracy, said Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vaypayee, and he questioned how long the country would
depend on capitalists to fight elections. Visibly upset
over such incidents, the prime minister had a reason to
be happy as his Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, won
state assembly elections in three Congress-governed
states - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan.
Also, for the first time Rajasthan elected a
female chief minister, Vasundhara Raje. Three women
chief ministers, out of the four states that went to
polls earlier this month, represent an increasingly
positive trend for women politicians, though a tonsured
Uma Bharati and a sophisticated Sheila Dixit comprise a
motley group. Meanwhile, the saffron juggernaut prior to
the general election next year puts Congress president
Sonia Gandhi and her gang in a real dilemma over the
charisma and prospects of the dynasty.
Disasters, carnage and stampedes As
in other years, Indian Railways sustained a bleak
accident record. Fifty-one people were killed when three
coaches of a train of the Konkan Railways derailed at a
tunnel entrance near Kankavali in Sindhudurg district of
Maharashtra, after rain washed boulders onto the track.
Then 36 people died from a fire which broke out in a
rear car of the Golden Temple Express. At least 100
people were killed in Himachal Pradesh when a flash
flood swept through a make-shift tent site where
laborers were sleeping. They were building a tunnel
through a mountain near the popular summer resort town
of Kulu, as part of a hydro-power project.
As
many as 40 people were feared dead and 30 others injured
after a stampede broke out at the Kumbh Mela in Nashik.
The stampede occurred as an estimated 4,000,000 pilgrims
crowded to bathe in the Godavari River. In a another
disaster, 21 people were burned to death because of a
row over jobs at a tea plantation in the Dooars area of
West Bengal. The dispute began when a local union leader
at the Dalgaon Tea Estate wanted to hire three
"outsiders", sparking outrage among local workers.
Terrorist strikes continued. The Mumbai blasts
in the diamond market of Zaveri Bazaar and at the
Gateway of India revived the memories of previous years'
disasters. The terrorists were successful in their
Mumbai mission, killing 52 and wounding more than 150 in
India's economic capital.
Record
reserves The year ended with a bang as the
country's foreign exchange reserve crossed the historic
US$100 billion mark, vaulting India into the big league
of only five emerging market nations that have such high
reserves, though still falling behind its nearest
competitor China by almost $300 billion. The economy has
been humming with a feel-good factor, mainly due to a
good monsoon and excellent corporate performances.
Economic activity picked up, boosted by
restructuring efforts in the industrial sector, a drop
in interest rates to 30-year lows and the best monsoon
since 1988, which is likely to augment food grain output
this year to a record 220 million tons. The spurt in
agricultural production gave momentum to output in
industry and services as well. Adding to the good news,
only a brief and small spike in inflation took place
just after the war in Iraq.
Tax collections have
been by and large on target. Declaring the economy's
fundamentals to be strong, the Vajpayee government
jacked up its projection for GDP growth for the current
financial year to more than 7 percent from 6 percent,
outpacing the previous year's 4.3 percent. Further,
private investment in industry has revived. The present
spell of buoyancy in the capital market, if it lasts,
will encourage outlays.
The fear of imports
still haunts industry but the China syndrome that seemed
to weaken confidence in the late 1990s has largely
disappeared. Both should push investment in industry.
But revival of private investment does not reflect its
counterpart's health: public sector investment. Bogged
by policy uncertainty and government indifference, it is
most evident in petroleum and telecom sectors. And less
said the better about capital expenditure by the center
and the state governments.
As the events leading
to the collapse of the WTO talks at Cancun unfolded,
India's fortunes swayed dramatically as it took to
center stage the concerns of developing countries. The
most important factor, which helped the Indian
delegation in the Mexican meeting, was unanimity of
national opinion behind the broad stand. It was well
that the government consulted with political parties,
trade unions, industry associations and other
stakeholders prior to the meet. However, back home, the
government got a jolt as the Supreme Court restrained
the center from proceeding with the privatization of two
major public sector enterprises, Hindustan Petroleum
Corporation Ltd and Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd,
holding that disinvestment in them could not take place
without prior Parliament approval.
But the
biggest blow of the year was received by the two
multinational soft drinks giants. The expose by the
Center for Science and the Environment on the presence
of pesticides in Pepsi and Coca-Cola bottles dealt a
body blow to the two arch-rivals, so much so that they
joined forces to contest the findings. But the sales of
both the soft drinks brands took a nosedive despite an
advertising blitzkrieg with repackaged Shah Rukh Khan
and Aamir Khan.
India keeps distance from
Iraq War War was the buzz theme in the global
arena as the US waged the battle against Iraq to "save
the world" from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, which
never materialized. In the beginning, the US reason
seemed to be convincing. Later, the US claim and
reasoning proved hollow after US troops swept through
Iraq, and combed the country - but no weapons were
found.
India, which opposed the war and US
unilateralism in waging it, did not contribute troops.
Eight months later, America found a grubby and
bearded Saddam Hussein hiding in an underground "spider
hole" near a farmhouse outside his hometown of Tikrit,
in a swift raid conducted without casualties. And now
the former dictator of Iraq will face the justice he
denied to the millions.
Sport milestones and
magic After 20 years, India got a chance to
win the cricket World Cup again, making the final, but
the team collapsed like a house of cards against Ricky
Ponting's Australian squad. Thus the dream of captain
Sourav Ganguly and his band of merry men turned sour as
they lost to the Aussies by 125 runs, failing to repeat
their 1983 feat. The only saving grace was that master
blaster Sachin Tendulkar became ''Man of the Series'' in
the World Cup. The Indian batting maestro with 669 runs
had an unassailable lead in the race for World Cup's top
individual prize.
However, every dog has his day
and that came when India defeated the world champions in
their own den by four wickets after 22 years. It was an
amazing come-from-behind victory at the Adelaide Oval,
similar to a marathon runner storming his way home to
the victory podium after being hopelessly placed at the
beginning of a gruelling 42 kilometer run.
The
men to be admired for making possible this fantastic
fight-back are Rahul Dravid, who has slowly and surely
taken over the mantle from Tendulkar as the kingpin of
the Indian batting lineup, and Venkatasai Laxman, the
Hyderabadi with the magical wrist. There was another man
in the scheme of things. A bowler who has come out of
the woods - Ajit Agarkar. His 6 for 41 was nothing short
of a magical performance.
At last, hockey has
bounced back to rekindle memories of India's golden
past. It came a close second to cricket in terms of
victories and popularity, if not on the financial
fronts. India won the Asia Cup after beating Pakistan in
the final, and booked a World Cup ticket three years in
advance. They again defeated Pakistan in the Afro-Asian
Games to clinch the gold, but lost to the arch-rival for
the bronze medal in the Champions Trophy. Golf had also
its say in the year as Arjun Atwal became the first
Indian ever to make it to the most prestigious golfing
circuit in the world - the US PGA Tour - after a
sterling final round performance in the Qualifying
School. His card of three-under 69 in the final stage of
the US PGA Tour Qualifying School ensured him a pride of
place in India's golfing history.
In athletics
this was a year no less memorable for India. Anju Bobby
George hasn't made it to the Athens Olympics yet but the
bronze medal at the World Athletics Championships was an
achievement that made the country proud after a very
long time. The year also saw the World Snooker Crown
firmly on the head of 18-year-old Pankaj Advani ending a
19-year drought for India. He outplayed second seed
Saleh Mohammad of Pakistan 11-6 at Jiangmen in China.
The first snooker title for India came in 1984 when late
O B Agarwal won it in Dublin defeating T Parson of
Wales.
Boom time for Bollywood Reeling
under flop after flop for the past two years, Bollywood
heaved a sigh of relief with mega hits evenly
distributed across the year, though it could not stave
off its usual share of big budget disasters. At the top
of the list of major disappointments were Sooraj
Barjatya's Main Prem Ki Diwani Hoon, Honey
Irani's Armaan, Anil Sharma's spy thriller The
Hero and Kaizad Gustad's Boom. These films
raised high hopes but faced equivocal rejection from the
masses.
Don't believe what the dissenters say.
As the year draws to a close, the picture at the box
office is rosy all the way. Seldom in recent times has
Bollywood witnessed such a rewarding year. As 2003
closes, the hits seem to multiply manifold. While the
audience wept copiously for a dying Shah Rukh Khan in
Kal Ho Na Ho, "producer" Karan Johar laughed all
the way to the bank.
The question is not which
movies were the biggest grosser: KHNH or
Hrithik-starrer Koi Mil Gaya or Bachchan-led
Baghban, but these blockbusters effected a
turnaround in the fortune and future of the dream world.
And the industry is set to start the new year with a
string of promising films.
Off the screen,
actress Aishwarya Rai broke up with Salman Khan in the
beginning of the year, calling the chapter a "nightmare"
and later vowed never to work with him again.
Life, at times, can be stranger than fiction.
(Trans World Features)
Dec 25, 2003
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2003, Asia Times Online, 4305 Far East Finance Centre, 16 Harcourt Rd,
Central, Hong Kong
History calls for caution,
though. Every time India and Pakistan resume talk with
zest, they discuss everything except the perennial
issues, especially the disputed territory of Kashmir,
for which the meetings are convened, and later both
characterize their dialogue as "constructive".
Interestingly, but not surprising, the history of talks
between the two neighbors is littered with failed
promises and false claims. 
After 20 years, India got a chance to
win the cricket World Cup again, making the final, but
the team collapsed like a house of cards against Ricky
Ponting's Australian squad. Thus the dream of captain
Sourav Ganguly and his band of merry men turned sour as
they lost to the Aussies by 125 runs, failing to repeat
their 1983 feat. The only saving grace was that master
blaster Sachin Tendulkar became ''Man of the Series'' in
the World Cup. The Indian batting maestro with 669 runs
had an unassailable lead in the race for World Cup's top
individual prize. 
