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Elections fuel the India-Pakistan
dynamic
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Will the exigencies of electoral
politics in India stall the peace process with Pakistan?
The indications are that the ruling Bharatiya Janata
Party (BJP) may not want any substantial progress in
India-Pakistan entente until parliamentary elections are
over.
This has to do with the dynamics of Indian
politics, with the nation probably going to the polls in
the next couple of months, rather than in October, as
scheduled. The BJP national executive met in Hyderabad
on Monday and adopted a resolution recommending that the
government seek a fresh mandate at the earliest possible
date.
The recently concluded South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit in
Islamabad was historic, with leaders of both India and
Pakistan shedding the baggage of the past and agreeing
to address the core issues affecting relations between
the two countries. India agreed to talk about Kashmir,
and Pakistan promised India that it will ensure that the
terrorist infrastructure within the country is
dismantled.
The two countries also agreed to
initiate a composite dialogue encompassing the above two
issues, as well as providing a structural framework to
other people-to-people-contacts that have gone a long
way in defusing tensions. During the SAARC summit,
Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was hailed as
a statesman of the highest stature, with the Pakistanis
perhaps for the first time willing to repose a lot of
trust on an Indian leader. Pakistan President General
Pervez Musharraf was commended for turning over a new
leaf and elevated his status from that of a mere
dictator to a man of peace, though there are still many
who doubt the general's real intentions.
But
Vajpayee's homecoming after the highs of the SAARC
summit has brought him face to face with another
reality. There is increasing pressure to bring the
general elections forward to as early as February or
March.
The thinking within the BJP is that this
is the right time to go to the electorate when the going
is good - the party has registered wins at recently
concluded state elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan
and Chattisgarh. The opposition is in disarray, with the
leading opposition party, the Congress, yet to work out
electoral arrangements and tie-ups with future coalition
partners.
The monsoon was good in 2003,
providing a huge fillip to the economy, which is still
largely dependent on agriculture. India's forex reserves
have crossed an unprecedented US$100 billion, and the
stock exchange is booming as a result of large
investments by foreign institutional investors.
But most importantly, the stature of
octogenarian Vajpayee, who is being projected as the
BJP's prime ministerial candidate, has never been on a
higher plane. The BJP wants to encash what has been
termed as the "feel good" and "shining India" factors.
But herein lies the catch - the fear is that if it is so
good now, it can only get worse.
One key issue
that hangs in the balance given its fickle nature is
Indo-Pak relations, which are being showcased by the BJP
as one of the major achievements of the party and
Vajpayee. With Vajpayee the star persona around which
the BJP expects to garner the votes, it has also become
a moot point whether the success in Islamabad will
actually translate into votes. From reports that are
emerging quoting sources within the Sangh Parivar
(fraternity of Hindu right-wing organizations - the BJP
and its affiliates), there does not seem to be a
whole-hearted agreement.
While the agreement at
the SAARC summit is historic, it does not carry the
pan-Indian nationalistic appeal of unifying voters the
way it turned out in the October 1999 elections soon
after the Kargil conflict - a short but bloody military
exchange with Pakistan over Kashmir.
There is
still a large degree of skepticism attached to the
actual intentions of Musharraf, who has a history of
turning back on promises. Musharraf, after all, usurped
power in a 1999 bloodless coup, deposing then prime
minister Nawaz Sharif, who was accused of selling out on
Kashmir.
The BJP thinking seems to be: what if
Musharraf is actually buying time to strengthen his
position vis-a-vis the United States, given the jihadis
who are now baying for his blood consequent to his
anti-Taliban crackdown. It will take one bloody
terrorist strike in India orchestrated from across the
border or one disparaging speech or remark by Musharraf
accusing India of curbing a genuine freedom struggle in
Kashmir to undo all the good work at SAARC.
In
such a situation, should the BJP go to the people
brandishing Vajpayee's success at Islamabad that could
yet turn out to be based on such tenuous grounds? It is
apparent that even if matters do take such a negative
turn, it is unlikely to dent Vajpayee's leadership
position, with people seeing it as a genuine attempt to
get a recalcitrant neighbor on the right path. But going
further ahead in trying to make the composite dialogue
process a success may be fraught with risks for the
party.
There are opinions within the BJP that
espouse the view that going the whole hog on Indo-Pak
relations may actually be detrimental to the party's
poll prospects. At the national executive meeting in
Hyderabad, External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha was
evasive about the future of consultations. On being
queried about the date for the resumption of the
composite dialogue, and also on the level and venue for
the talks, Sinha said: "That I can't say at this point
of time. This is something that will have to be mutually
decided. We will consult with the government of Pakistan
in the next few days, weeks. We will fix a date, we will
fix the level, we will fix the venue. We will fix how
the talks should proceed."
Indeed, the feeling
is that while the moderate Hindu, which actually means
the country's middle class, seems to be sold to the idea
of building bridges with Pakistan, it is the more
fundamentalist Hindu that may be a problem. As the BJP
sees it, the middle class votes are already pocketed,
given the performance of the economy, as well as the
leadership vacuum in the opposition parties. A slew of
excise and custom duty cuts that have brought prices of
white goods down was announced by Finance Minister
Jaswant Singh last week aimed at making this section
happy.
The worry is the more rabid Hindu, a
creation of the BJP itself, sold on the idea of building
the Ram temple at Ayodhya where the Babri Masjid once
stood. This section inundates states such as Uttar
Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Gujarat and Maharashtra. As a
matter of fact, the BJP is on the weakest ground at UP,
which returns the maximum number of parliamentary seats
and on which the crucial aspect of government formation
depends. Both the BJP and the Congress have been at
pains to revive their fortunes in the state that so far
has seen the votes falling into the lap of regional
outfits such as the Samajwadi Party, with its base among
Muslims and backward castes, and the Bahujan Samaj
Party, with its dalit vote bank.
If the
BJP is to make a dent among these sections, excluding
Muslims, it will be vital to play down a pro-Muslim
image that goes with mollycoddling Pakistan and bringing
back its old Hindutva card that centers around the
philosophy of majority Hindu rule as well as the temple
issue of Ayodhya. There is no way that Muslims are going
to vote for the party, given the past record of the BJP.
They will either align themselves with the Congress or
such regional outfits as the Samajwadi Party, with its
stronghold in the most populous state of UP.
Thus, by all indications, the BJP brass seem to
be inclined towards bringing the Ayodhya issue back to
the center stage to appease the hardline section of
Hindus, with the moderates already in the kitty. The
strategy is likely to be the same as played out in the
recent state elections, which saw a subtle yet distinct
use of Hindutva cadres without antagonizing the more
mainstream and moderate Hindus.
On the crucial
aspect of what line Vajpayee is going to take, given his
past behavior, whether on Kashmir, disinvestment or
Gujarat, he has always taken the view which suits his
party's best interests. Vajpayee is a consummate
politician who understands the pitfalls and vagaries of
Indian vote bank politics, as well as the dynamics
within the Sangh Parivar, better than anyone else. It is
because he flits between being a moderate and a
hardliner with ease which makes him the leader that he
is - unlike others in the BJP he is the only one who has
managed to straddle both streams of thought without
being labeled as belonging to either camp.
So,
which way will Vajpayee tilt? More than likely the way
which will bring electoral gains, which means that the
high-drama as well as symbolic gestures that have become
the order of Indo-Pak relations are likely to be
relegated to the backburner for the time being. There
will be talks as promised, but likely only at levels
that will matter little.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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