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Now you're talking
Siddharth Srivastava
NEW
DELHI - After the high-profile meeting of leaders during
the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation
(SAARC) summit last month, India and Pakistan set about
the tough business of actual talks on Monday, after a
gap of nearly three years. The last time the two
countries met for talks at the official level was during
the Agra summit in India that failed.
The Indian delegation led by Arun
Singh, joint secretary in the foreign ministry, will initiate
talks with Pakistani counterparts, led by Jalil
Abbas Jilani, director-general of the foreign ministry's South
Asia section. The two-day talks will prepare the agenda
for discussions between foreign secretaries Riaz Khokhar
of Pakistan and Shashank of India on Wednesday.
It is likely that Shashank and Khokhar will
iron out a joint statement in Islamabad that is likely to
be a structural roadmap for further talks in future. It
is being said that not much can be expected from the
talks as the prime minister of India, Atal Bihari
Vajpayee, now heads a caretaker government as parliament
was dissolved earlier this month. The country goes to
the polls in a couple of months, and the new government
will have a fresh mandate entrusting it with the task of further
progress in Indo-Pakistan talks.
Yet the first
official level contact between the two countries after a
period during which Pakistan threatened to nuke its neighbor,
while India amassed troops along the border for a
possible strike, is significant. For one, they
might not have taken place at all, despite the bonhomie
of SAARC.
Given the happenings over the past
month since Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf
and Vajpayee met in Islamabad, the talks could well have
failed before they started had not both the countries
handled a potentially disastrous situation with a
maturity woefully missing earlier.
India has
shown surprising restraint following Pakistan's illegal
sale of nuclear technology to Libya, Iran and North
Korea that has embroiled the rest of the world;
Pakistan, too, has sought to internalize the issue
instead of its usual knee-jerk reaction of blaming India
for all its ills, including turning nuclear.
Consider the following possible
scenarios had the cold war between the two countries been
continuing: cornered by increasingly foolproof evidence against
Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan as well public protests against
his arrest, Musharraf could have taken the easy route.
He could have lashed out at India, justifying
Pakistan's nuclear program by the enormous threat that his country
faced. Maybe he could have orchestrated a return of
hostilities to end the ceasefire along the border, in
order to divert attention. Politicians and dictators are
known for such strategies anywhere. While it would not
have absolved Khan, it could still have earned Musharraf
some respectability in the eyes of the Islamists and
jihadis, as well as elements within the Inter Services
Intelligence and the military who have thrived due to
the covert proxy war against India.
India, for
its part, has sought to keep mum on the issue, despite
many officials privately indicating that in more "normal
circumstances" India would probably have gone for
Musharraf's jugular, as well as an open criticism of the
United States for siding with the Pakistani president.
There was always the route of pointing a finger at
Pakistan and saying to the rest of the world: "We have
told you all along that Pakistan is a rogue state."
Instead, there have only been a couple of subdued
reactions by Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha on the
matter. In one of these he actually came out slightly in
favor, by saying that it was unfair to single out
Pakistan when several Western countries were also part
of the nuclear proliferation black market.
It is tempting to dismiss the current
soft Indian attitude as being opportunistic, with the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government flaunting peace
with Pakistan as one of its major achievements. But, as
time elapses, the peace process does seem to be firming up
to gain a momentum of its own that may be difficult
to stop, whatever new government takes over.
Indeed, while there are those who do not desire
an Indo-Pakistan entente, there is also a growing
constituency within Pakistan that aspires to normal ties
with India so that Pakistan can focus on the path of
progress and economic prosperity like its neighbor.
Ironically, the same jihadis that are a creation
of the Pakistani military and intelligence are now
gunning for Musharraf, as evidenced by the two close
assassination attempts on his life. That jihadis can be
buttressed only at one's own peril is a natural
corollary.
After the Khan episode, India and
Pakistan find themselves on the same side of the fence
in remaining outside the nuclear non-proliferation
treaty regime and have refused to sign the agreement in
its present form in which their nuclear status is not
recognized. Further concrete action is in evidence as
India has said that there are indications that the
Pakistan army has been dismantling terror operations in
Pakistan-administered Kashmir.
In another
significant announcement, Vajpayee has given the green
light to the upcoming tour of the Indian cricket team to
Pakistan, despite security fears. Cricketers on the
sub-continent are icons and considered national
treasures. If something untoward does happen, it could
boomerang very badly on the BJP during the elections.
Though the economics of such a series did play a role,
it is another sign of trust on the Pakistan
establishment that the tour is on.
India
restored sporting links with Pakistan only three months
ago as a sign of improving ties between the two nations,
which suspended overflights and downgraded diplomatic
missions in each other's countries following an armed
attack on India's parliament in December 2001. New Delhi
blamed Pakistan-related groups for that attack.
As events unfold, it does become clear
that the United States has pitched for Musharraf as he
is still the best bet towards a road to a moderate
Pakistan. It is also becoming quite apparent that India,
too, thinks that given the turbulent situation within
Pakistan, any chance of lasting peace rests with
Musharraf. Musharraf, for his part, is also aware that it has boiled down to
a choice between siding with elements that promote
jihadi culture within Pakistan, or the US, which will not stand
for any overt or covert support to any terrorist
infrastructure. The spectacle of a spider-holed Saddam
Hussein will continue to haunt for a while.
The first
round of official talks may not result in significant
movement forward on any substantive issues concerning
security, Jammu and Kashmir, nuclear proliferation,
or cross-border terrorism. They are being
touted as "talks about talks" that will happen in the
future. Yet the fact that they are happening, despite
the turmoil of the past month, is in itself a major step
in bringing about peace between the two warring nations
in the sub-continent, a reflection of changed attitudes
and building the right atmosphere.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist
(Copyright 2004 Asia
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