John Kerry: A thorn in India's
side By Indrajit Basu
KOLKATA
- When Massachusetts senator John Kerry captured the
Democratic nomination on Tuesday to challenge United
States President George W Bush in the November fight for
White House, those who want to see change come to
America may have cheered, but it has certainly raised
concerns in India, which, following three years of
sharing an unexpectedly cozy relationship with the Bush
administration, foresees considerable diplomatic
challenges in the months ahead.
Kerry has forced
the country's money-spinning outsourcing industry to
experience renewed worry pangs as his win, which could
turn his obsessive singling out of the outsourcing of
jobs to countries such as India as the principal cause
for American unemployment, into a ticking time bomb. And
for the country as a whole, there are other strategic
concerns, such as Kerry's insistence on India signing
the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT); Kashmir,
where Kerry's policy is not very clear; and the issuing
of H1-B visas to Indians wanting to work in the US.
Already, India's back office - or business
processing and outsourcing service providers - are
squirming in their seats. "Part of the popular
enthusiasm for Kerry in the unfolding presidential
campaign stems from his promise to stop outsourcing
American jobs to India and other countries," said a
member of TiE, an association of Indian software
outsourcing entrepreneurs. "And on Tuesday, when Kerry
was crowned as the presidential nominee of the Democrats
scoring a string of coast-to-coast wins, it became clear
that outsourcing would become an explosive poll issue."
Kerry won the Democratic presidential nomination
in a huge victory on "Super Tuesday" after sweeping nine
out of the 10 states in California, New York,
Connecticut, Ohio, Rhode Island, Maryland, Massachusetts
and Minnesota, defeating his main rival John Edwards,
forcing him to withdraw from the race. With this, the
60-year-old senator has won 27 of 30 primaries and
caucuses held so far. Kerry is expected to be formally
named later this summer as the party's choice to
challenge President George W Bush during the November
national election. Although primaries are still due in
20 states, since Kerry has no viable opponent in the
fray, analysts say that Tuesday's victory makes him the
only contender against Bush, and possibly, as many
predict, "a sure fire winner for the president's
office".
There's another reason why Kerry stands
a good chance; he has the backing of most major labor
unions and middle class working families for his
anti-outsourcing views. Protests by anti-outsourcing
factions have kicked off again with renewed vigor
following Kerry's presidential nomination. In Florida on
Wednesday (the day after Kerry won), reports say the
fight over the export of American jobs spilled over into
the streets, when, encouraged by Kerry's victory, a
group of protesters chanting "stop outsourcing"
trespassed into Walt Disney property to attack those
attending an outsourcing conference.
On the same
day, the state of Minnesota joined the group of
half-a-dozen other states in the US that have introduced
anti-outsourcing bills. Senator Norm Coleman introduced
yet another bill before US Congress that aims to prevent
federal, state and local governments from outsourcing
contracts for goods or services.
There is one
interesting feature in that bill though: Coleman is a
Republican (like Bush), generally known for their
commitment to the principles of free market, and
therefore not supporters of protectionism. However,
Coleman called the bill "common sense legislation".
What's more, shortly after his triumph, Kerry
launched a major attack on Bush's domestic, economic and
foreign policies. He also said he now wants the
government to deny tax breaks to multinationals
outsourcing jobs and wants the companies to notify
employees and the federal labor department before moving
jobs overseas.
Kerry's view on India and the
nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) is another
irritant for the country. He has already gone on record
asking India to sign the NPT, and has made his
endorsement of India's claim to a permanent seat in the
US Security Council conditional and half-hearted. "While
I think that in may ways India would be a good
candidate, there is one notable problem, India is not a
party to the NPT," said Kerry. "All the nuclear powers
on the council not only directly shape the NPT, but also
are parties that abide by it. This may be the most
serious issue with respect to India's candidacy and one
that must be addressed by India."
On the issue
of Kashmir, Kerry feels that India should practice
tremendous restraint because there is already "enough
blame to go around". Besides, India will also have to
give the H1-B visa an added push because, "those who
oppose the import of Indian professionals have a major
voice among Democrats, whose pleas Kerry will find hard
to ignore", fear many software industry experts.
The H1-B visa issue - work permits that the US
issues to foreign professionals to work in that country
- has become an additional irritant for India since the
US reduced the number of visas issued drastically (from
165,000 to 95,000) this year, a move that has had a
negative impact on India's information technology (IT)
industry. India's IT sector is the highest user of these
visas globally, used to send its software professionals
to the US for providing outsourced services onshore.
With some 200 trade bodies, including the US
Chamber of Commerce, the Business Roundtable, the
American Bankers Association, the National Association
of Manufacturers and the Information Technology
Association of America, all of which support
outsourcing, India has created a Coalition for Economic
Growth and American Jobs, which has been trying to
reverse this H1-B visa cut for the past few months.
Meanwhile, a section of the Indian diaspora is
trying hard to contain the increasing popularity of
Kerry. As reports suggest, US-based top executives of
Indian IT and business process outsourcing (BPO) outfits
have started boycotting all fund-raising dinners for the
democratic frontrunner in the presidential election, who
is privately referred to as a "BPO party spoiler" within
the community.
Therefore, a second term for Bush
is clearly what India favors, particularly given the
improvement in bilateral relations over the past few
years. But as there is the possibility that may not
happen, the Indian embassy in Washington, its lobbyists,
the Indian ambassador-at-large - with his political
contacts across the board - and the Indian American
community are all gearing up in the mean time to promote
India's views to Kerry in the coming months.
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