Afghanistan: The spring trap is
sprung By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - In a clear indication
that the spring offensive against suspected Taliban and
al-Qaeda fighters on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border
will be launched soon, United States Secretary of State
Colin Powell is scheduled to arrive in Pakistan on March
17, a visit that comes on the heels of British Foreign
Secretary Jack
Straw's own journey to Islamabad last
week. After Powell's trip, US Chief of Central Command
General John Abizaid will also make his way to Pakistan.
These visits are all in preparation for
the upcoming "game", one that will have broad
consequences for the region. At a time when rebellious feelings
are quickly taking root in the Pakistani tribal regions
of South and North Waziristan - tribal leaders have
unanimously demanded the withdrawal of Pakistani forces
from the tribal areas - plans for the new operation are
nearing their final stages.
An operation
outline The scope of the upcoming operation is
far broader in both Afghanistan and Pakistan than it has
been in the past, and is likely to be launched in April,
according to high-level sources that spoke to Asia Times
Online. An important development has already taken place
on the Afghan front: access to Tora Bora has been
restricted by international and Afghan military forces.
While this piece of information made news around the
globe, what is little known is that there is a truce
between local Afghan military bosses in Jalalabad and
local warlords associated with Hezb-i-Islami, the
Afghanistan rebel group led by Gulbuddin Hekmatyar that
is spearheading the Afghan resistance movement.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the border
in Pakistan's Khyber agency and surrounding areas, it
is alleged that Osama bin Laden built bunkers and
tunnels, echoing the path he took in the Tora Bora
mountains, from where he escaped advancing US-led troops in
early 2002 after the fall of the Taliban. Sources
maintain that if bin Laden is not arrested in Khyber agency,
it is unlikely he will be located as it is the only
static refuge besides Tora. At the same time, the region is
where guerrilla fighters take refuge for longer periods
to plan their next guerrilla attack. This information is
very much known to US authorities, which is why Khyber
agency is one of the next targets for the operation
against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.
It is also
believed that the spring operations will cover not only
Afghan and the Pakistani tribal areas, but the city
centers of both countries. The high-level sources say
that the US is working to paralyze all possible support
systems to the Taliban and al-Qaeda from cities in
Pakistan.
In the next sweep, the US is expected
to play an active role within Pakistan; however, the
mission has been kept secret as this is a very sensitive
issue in the country. The owners of major Pakistani
press organizations have already been warned against
coverage of events showing US involvement in Pakistan.
And for foreign media correspondents, new proposals are
under review to restrict their movements, as well as
monitor their writing.
Pakistan's President
General Pervez Musharraf, who faces significant domestic
political pressure against US deployments in Pakistan,
has repeatedly denied the presence of US troops.
Putting on the pressure The US
has already pressured Pakistan to take all the
necessary steps to ensure the spring operation will be a
success. In an extraordinary development highlighting
the intricacies of the operation, the Corps Commander
in Peshawar, Lieutenant-General Ali Jan Orakzai,
has retired a month prematurely. Major General
Safdar Hussain will take his place. Sources from
Peshawar maintain that Orakzai will be installed as governor
of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province in
compensation for his premature retirement.
Orakzai has been in Washington's bad books
since last year, when he visited the US and openly
condemned the behavior of US authorities towards
Pakistanis. Orakzai was an official guest, but was forced to
go through a plethora of screenings and checks at
the immigration counter on his arrival. As well
as complaining about this particular incident,
Orakzai spoke against what he felt was discriminatory
behavior against Pakistanis at functions hosted by the Pakistani
embassy in the US.
These changes in command come
amid word that US authorities have made a special
request: in the next phase of operations, all Pashtun
officers should be separated from those officers
actually involved in the spring offensive, whose names
would be vetted by US authorities. (Pashtuns are
generally sympathetic to the ethnic Pashtun Taliban.)
Orakzai is a Pashtun. Meanwhile, the new corps
commander, Hussain, is from Punjab and enjoys good
relations with US authorities. Previously posted in
Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) , where he
coordinated with US forces, Hussain is highly
knowledgeable about the north western Pakistani region.
Traditionally, the Pakistan army has been dominated by
Punjabi and Pashtun officers, but for the past two years
Pashtun officers have been greatly cut to size. In
recent promotions, 18 brigadiers were elevated to the
position of major-general, while only one Pashtun was
given the same title.
Elsewhere, a list of
Pakistan's most-wanted terrorists has been compiled by a
newly formed group called the Special Investigation
Cell. This group is headed by a Federal Investigation
Agency director from the Pakistani side and by a Central
Intelligence Agency official from the US side. As per
the list, several top jihadis were recently picked up
and interrogated. These events were not reported in the
media.
This correspondent spoke with one of the
men picked up, who once belonged to the banned
Lashkar-i-Taiba and who is now an inactive office
bearer. He was previously picked up by ISI and US
Federal Bureau of Investigation officials and jointly
and separately interrogated by these agencies, which
wanted to know the whereabouts of Arab fighters hiding
in the port city of Karachi.
The man was given clearance
after several days of interrogation, but was picked
up again for the same reason, and once again set free
after he went through several stages of screenings and
investigations. He has been told that since he is on the
US's most-wanted list, he will be in contact with these
agencies in the future.
Under the new
operation, many big names associated with the
Jamaat-i-Islami, the Jamiat-i-Ulema-i-Islam (Fazalur
Rehman) , Jaish-i-Mohammed and the Lashkar-i-Taiba are
expected to be interrogated. The names include Maulana
Masood Azhar and Abdullah Shah Mazhar, two top-ranking
jihadis.
At the same time, all those who
previously fought alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan,
since released from Afghan jails, will be required to
report weekly to their local Afghan police stations and
will occasionally be picked up by intelligence agencies
for screening. Those Pakistanis released from Afghan
jails will not be set free by Pakistani authorities and
will be dealt with under a stringent legal clause.
From Kabul to Jalalabad and from Khyber agency
to Karachi, an infrastructure is being put in place, all
of which is being supervised by US authorities, to make
the spring operations a success. The depth of these
plans suggests that the battlefields will heat up in the
near future, on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan
border. But whether these steps will actually help the
US catch Osama remains the million-dollar question.
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Straw's own journey to Islamabad last
week. After Powell's trip, US Chief of Central Command
General John Abizaid will also make his way to Pakistan.
