South
Asia peace process to please
Powell By Sultan Shahin
NEW
DELHI - On the eve of United States Secretary of State
Colin Powell's visit to India and Pakistan, the peace
process between the two nuclear-armed neighbors,
consistently encouraged by the US, seems to have taken
on a momentum of its own. With thousands of Indian
cricket fans roaming the streets of Pakistani cities and
enjoying the country's famous hospitality, the two
nations are now straining their imaginations to dream up
new areas of mutual cooperation. Some military top brass
are even visualizing the possibility of joint military
exercises in the not too distant future, making it
appear that there will be no turning back.
What,
then, is Powell, the peace facilitator, going to do in
this atmosphere of bonhomie? No one seems to know what
Powell's "full" agenda for the region really is, but it
is reasonably certain that America's "war on terror"
will be more on his mind than blossoming India-Pakistan
relations.
However, the report card on Indo-Pak
relations that Powell will get to see should please him
to no end. Not only are pre-determined official-level
talks going on as scheduled, government departments are
taking it one step further. The Indian Ministry of
Health and Family Welfare, for instance, has decided to
cash in on the cricket fever to create awareness on
polio, a scourge that both nations are battling. Pegged
to the cricket series is a polio eradication campaign, a
50-second advertising spot that has Amitabh Bachhan and
Sachin Tandulkar, India's biggest film and cricket stars
respectively, advocating the cause. Indian Health
Minister Sushma Swaraj, the hardliner who had been
accused of having wrecked the 2001 India-Pakistan summit
at Agra with misinformation in her role as the
then-information minister, has even taken a personal
interest in the campaign, writing to her Pakistani
counterpart to utilize the cricket series as a platform
to create awareness on polio.
Transportation:
An 'S' for satisfactory The report card would
have looked even better if the two-day technical-level
talks on the possibility of starting a bus service
between India's Rajasthan state and Pakistan's Sindh
province had succeeded in sorting out the bottlenecks.
But the meeting ended on Wednesday without the
two sides reaching an agreement. An intriguing press
statement on the outcome of the talks said: "Both sides
affirmed their commitment to commence the bus service
between Khokhrapar and Munnabao, and agreed to meet
again to continue discussions."
This is being
seen in India as a delaying tactic on the part of
Pakistan. Both sides had already agreed in principle to
start the bus service and hence the technical-level
talks. It appears the focus of the talks was to create
"necessary infrastructure"; the condition of the
45-kilometer road on both sides needs to be improved and
immigration and customs offices have to be established.
The stretch on the Pakistani side is 35km and on the
Indian side it is 10km. The Indian delegation informed
Pakistan that it was ready to create the infrastructure
by August 1, but Pakistan said that it would require
"more time".
Diplomatic observers find it
difficult to understand why the two sides should meet
again when they are already committed to running the bus
service, and the issue of creating the infrastructure is
something that can be tackled at lower levels. Kokhrapar
and Munnabao were linked by rail before 1965. But now,
it would require a lot of investment and time to repair
the dilapidated track. That is why both sides have
decided to go for the bus link.
There is a
feeling in New Delhi that Pakistan is not in favor of
quick progress on confidence-building measures (CBMs) -
like the new routes with India - without some progress
on the "core issue" of Kashmir. This was indicated by
Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf on February
5. The CBMs with India would be in tandem with progress
on Kashmir talks. A substantial dialogue on Kashmir,
however, can only start after a new government takes
office in New Delhi following general elections to be
held in April and May.
The Munnabao-Khokhrapar
service would be the second bus link between India and
Pakistan following the Delhi-Lahore bus service that
resumed last year. This service is being eagerly awaited
in Karachi, Asia Times Online discovered during a recent
visit. The Samjhauta (accord) express train between
Delhi and Lahore and air links between the two sides
have also been revived. An Indian delegation will visit
Islamabad on March 29 to discuss the modalities to run
the much-awaited Srinagar-Muzzafarabad bus service,
linking the Indian and Pakistani sides of the state of
Jammu and Kashmir.
Weapons woes and military
cooperation Like the delay in finalizing the
technical details for the bus service, Pakistan's
test-firing of its long-range ballistic missile this
week has left a bad taste in India's mouth, particularly
because of its timing. With a range of 2,000km, the
Shaheen-II missile, which can deliver a nuclear load to
any part of India, was fired even as the Indian cricket
team was readying for Lahore for a month-long season in
an unprecedented atmosphere of public warmth after years
of acrimony.
Indians, of course, recognize that
Pakistan is within its sovereign rights to do so. It had
also given India and others adequate advance notice, as
is now the norm. Missile tests need preparation, and the
scheduling might have preceded the finalization of the
cricket tour. But Indian observers feel Islamabad could
surely have deferred the launch of the deadly weapon,
which amounts for all practical purposes to be nothing
more than a show of strength against India.
Some
charitable observers like The Hindu newspaper, however,
feel that the testing is intended less as a warning to
India than as a reassurance to Musharraf's hard-line
critics who worry that, under American pressure, he
might sacrifice Pakistan's strategic capabilities.
But the delay in finalizing the Khokhrapar bus
route and the insensitivity of the missile test launch's
timing have failed to dampen the extraordinary hopes
generated by the cricket season following the recent
resumption of some rail, road and air links. Some army
top brass have even started visualizing a period when
there would be India-Pakistan joint military exercises
as there used to be between 1952 and 1965 - and even
joint action to quell Islamic militants.
Articulating these hopes is retired Admiral J G
Nadkarni in an article in Asian Age entitled "Let's try
for military cooperation". He visualizes the following
scenario: "It is 2008. The military rule of President
Pervez Musharraf continues in Pakistan although it is
increasingly coming under pressure from militants in the
northwest. The rebellion had started in 2006, the same
year in which India and Pakistan signed a military
cooperation agreement with the help of the United
States. The rebels, with the help of the Taliban and
al-Qaeda, have taken control of the western part of the
country and have been advancing against the capital.
Pakistan invokes the military agreement and requests
India for help in the form of troops to fight the
rebels. In self-interest, India obliges and the joint
coalition succeeds in routing the militants."
Like many other commentators and even lay
persons, Nadkarni bases his hopes on examples from
history. He cites the following: "France and Germany
were bitter enemies for over 1,000 years. The two have
fought bitter wars and lost millions of their men to
each other's bullets. Military defeats? Both countries
have not only defeated each other but have occupied
territories. France was defeated, not only in the
Franco-Prussian war of 1870 but also in World War II,
Paris being occupied on both occasions.
"Religion? Both are separated by language and
religion. France is 80 percent Catholic; Germany, the
birthplace of Protestantism. Territory? The entire
provinces of Alsace and Lorraine were handed over to
Germany after 1870 and regained years later. Yet today,
both are not only members of the European Union but
military allies in NATO. Both have a common currency and
recently were united, along with Russia, in their
opposition to US action in Iraq. Surely, if these two
one-time arch enemies can find a way to better
relations, it should not be too difficult for India and
Pakistan to find a way of forging closer military
cooperation."
Similar sentiments come from a
retired Pakistani general, Ali Quli Khan Khattak, who
was superseded for the post of army chief by former
prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who had preferred the
younger Musharraf instead. Having resigned as the senior
most army general at the time, Khattak went into
business and is now visiting India as the chairman of
the Karachi-based General Tyre Company to participate in
the just ended, hugely successful 10-day-long "Made in
Pakistan" exhibition of Pakistani manufactured products
in Delhi. In an interview with The Times of India, he
said New Delhi should not worry about the Pakistani army
reversing its present India policy once Musharraf hangs
up his military uniform this December. Pakistan's India
policy is a "corporate decision" of the army and not
that of an individual that can change with somebody
coming or going, he said.
Khattak's reasoning
for optimism: "I think people on both sides have
realized that the world lies in commerce and business
and that the hostile and unfriendly relationship we have
had is something unhelpful. I think the realization is
there in Pakistan that one must get along. I know the
checkered history of our relations, but I think possibly
a time of maturity is here. I feel India-Pakistan
relations will thrive, I am confident of that. But
anything to succeed must always be fair in all respects,
and in that there is a lot of give and take ... If
things are fair, they will succeed."
India
looks to Powell for assurance Colin Powell plans
to drop by Delhi on March 15 and will be leaving for
Islamabad the following day. Before returning home, he
also plans to fly to Kabul. Two years ago his agenda for
the subcontinent was to try to prevent India and
Pakistan from going to war, but this time he is likely
more preoccupied with preparations for the US's spring
offensive against Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters in
Afghanistan and Pakistan, expected to be launched in
April.
Nonetheless, India plans to seize the
opportunity to further its own agenda. Although Powell's
visit is still being given the final touches, there are
media reports that New Delhi will ask him to share the
basis of Pakistan's "400 percent" - a commitment to
completely stop nuclear proliferation in the backdrop of
the sordid Abdul Qadeer Khan affair. India is likely to
seek an assurance that henceforth there will be no
exportation of nuclear technology from Pakistan. It's
also reported that India will ask Powell to amplify US
President George W Bush's new seven-point initiative on
curbing proliferation. While New Delhi has broadly
welcomed the initiative, it would like the two sides to
look afresh at the entire proliferation issue and seek a
larger involvement in the US and a global bid to shut
the doors on nuclear technology export.
On the
Indo-Pak dialogue front, New Delhi will be sharing with
Powell its assessment of the Foreign Secretary-level
talks held in Islamabad last month. It will also share
with him information on the terrorism front. While
cross-border infiltration has dipped to a historic low
in Jammu and Kashmir, New Delhi will point out the
marginal increase in violence in the state, including
Wednesday's attack by Lashkar-e-Taiba on the Jammu jail.
It will likely convey to Powell that though infiltration
is down, more needs to be done by Islamabad on
dismantling the terrorist infrastructure inside
Pakistan. Only then can a sustained dialogue process
take place.
At any rate, India is eager to hear
Powell's latest message for the South Asian
subcontinent, given that such promising developments
have already taken place.
(Copyright 2004 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
