Afghanistan: Dogs of war in full
cry By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - United States-led coalition forces
stationed in Afghanistan have launched operation
"Mountain Storm" - the beginning of their spring
anti-terror offensive - with the aim of hunting down
suspected Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters on the
Afghanistan-Pakistan border. But unlike previous
lackluster operations, the mechanisms of Mountain Storm
are envisaged to entail better aims and intelligence,
and will target prominent commanders such as Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar, the leader of Afghanistan rebel group
Hezb-i-Islami, as well as Ustad Fareed and Kashmir Khan,
two big names in the resistance movement.
The
focus of Mountain Storm is broader than past US
operations, and will cover the provinces of Nagarhar
(which includes Jalalabad), Kunhar Valley and Nooristan,
Khost, Gardez, Kandahar, Gazni, Oruzgan, Kunduz and
Logar (which also includes the outskirts of Kabul). It
is believed that the Hezb-i-Islami has established a
strong hub in the thick jungles and mountains of
Nooristan and Kunhar Valley, and Hekmatyar is said to
control the activities of the group from places like
Kunduz and Kabul. Meanwhile, high-level sources told
Asia Times Online that the dimensions of this latest
operation are very much evident in Pakistani tribal
areas, where 70,000 Pakistani troops have mobilized -
especially in South Waziristan, Bajur Agency and Mohmand
Agency.
The political factors Despite
rounding up dozens of Afghan citizens allegedly linked
to tribes and clans of the commanders wanted by the US,
the situation has been virtually static in Afghanistan,
with the US failing to make any significant captures
during previous operations. On the contrary, with the
passage of time, the grip of the guerrilla movement is
becoming stronger with each passing day.
The
coalition's past failures are said to be linked to the
Afghan administration, which was comprised of former
jihadi commanders and, more interestingly, former
officials and office bearers of Hezb-i-Islami. But well
before Mountain Storm, the Kabul administration brought
about major changes in the nine different provinces
where the operation is taking place, including a change
of security chiefs and governors.
Meanwhile, US
authorities have made it clear to Pakistan that if it
fails to help the US smash the network of the
resistance, one way or other it will find itself
swimming in a cesspool of troubles. In fact, US
Secretary of State Colin Powell - confirmed to arrive in
Pakistan on March 17 - is bringing with him a strong
agenda, in which he aims to discuss the ties of
Pakistani scientists to Libya, North Korea and Iran in
detail. Following this discussion, the US is likely to
put the breaks on Pakistan's enriched uranium
production, and the reduction of Pakistan's arms is
another issue. After that, the dangling sword of
sanctions is likely to fall.
Just this week, US
Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz acknowledged
publicly for the first time that Washington is expecting
favors in return for its tolerance of President General
Pervez Musharraf’s pardon of Abdul Qadeer Khan, the
scientist who in February confessed to selling nuclear
secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea . "We feel it
gives us more leverage," he told the Far Eastern
Economic Review news magazine.
As soon as
Powell's visit was confirmed, Musharraf rushed to
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he held meetings with Crown
Prince Abdullah in an effort to convince him to renew
the kingdom's oil supply contract with Pakistan on
deferred payment, so that Pakistan would be able to
weather any tough storms ahead. In 1998-99, Saudi Arabia
provided oil worth US$2 billion to Pakistan on deferred
payments at the request of then-prime minister Nawaz
Sharif, following sanctions imposed against Pakistan by
the world community because of its nuclear detonations.
A major portion of this amount was later converted into
a grant and the facility was extended in the subsequent
years and continued until December 2003.
But
Saudi authorities gave Musharraf the cold shoulder, and
so far have given no indication that any more oil supply
contracts will be granted on a deferred payment basis.
So with non-cooperation from Saudi Arabia,
Pakistan is in real political isolation. On the one
hand, it has made a complete u-turn in its relations
with India and is now ready to sacrifice the pursuit of
its contentious issues to end enmity with New Delhi. On
the other hand, it has been forced to station 70,000
troops on its western borders to contain the activities
of the Afghan insurgence. Furthermore, Pakistan is under
US pressure to force pro-Pakistan forces in Afghanistan
to lay down their weapons in favor of those who happen
to be anti-Pakistan forces. For the last few months,
Pakistan has also compromised on this issue, supporting
the US with full force against pro-Pakistani forces in
Afghanistan. But still, the US failed to see desirable
results and the ghosts of Taliban and al-Qaeda continue
to haunt it - and, perhaps even more so, Pakistan.
The fact of the matter is that things are not
really in Pakistan's hands anymore, as far as Afghan
resistance forces are concerned. The resistance of the
present is an indigenous force, with no help from any
region or any country in the world.
Two years
back, when the Taliban retreated from Kabul, they were
the most popular force in the Afghan Pashtun belt. In
the two-month-long US bombardment of Afghanistan,
nothing much changed until the Taliban themselves
decided to retreat, as they did not have any shield
against the US bombardment. Despite all the odds, it is
a fact that the Taliban are still the most popular force
in the Pashtun belt and they have successfully retained
their rule in most of the suburbs of the urban centers.
That fact is now admitted by the major international
press.
The spring offensive Asia Times
Online reported earlier that April is the month when the
US-led spring offensive will reach its climax.
Meanwhile, high-level-sources maintain that al-Qaeda is
preparing for its own attack US interests in April -
within the US as well - aimed at shaking the nerves of
the Bush administration at a time when the Afghan
guerilla movement will attempt to retake the major
Afghan cities from US forces.
In this regard, Thursday's train bombings
in Madrid - allegedly planned by al-Qaeda - have shown
a very different picture ahead. One has to keep in mind
that Spain has the highest number of al-Qaeda cells in
comparison to the rest of Europe. It is al-Qaeda policy
to use places like France, Pakistan and Spain as
transit points and use these places only for
planning their activities, because if they target the place that
shelters them, it would be difficult for them to
survive. However, if the Madrid attack was indeed carried
out by al-Qaeda, it clearly indicates that the group would have
had to shut down its cells in Spain well in
advance of the attack. This implies that preparations are underway
for major attacks against US allies.
High-level
sources told Asia Times Online that although a
retaliation against the US-led coalition's presence in
places like Kabul and Jalalabad is likely, the biggest
blunder of the US was to set off on its Mountain Storm
operation into the jungles and mountains of Nooristan,
as the entire area is pro-resistance; US casualties are
therefore a certainty.
A
foiled attempt
An attempt to blow up the
US consulate in Karachi was cut short Monday
morning. What is telling is that it happened just a few days
after the US kicked off operation Mountain Storm, a time
when there are clear signals that al-Qaeda will attempt
to carry out big attacks on US interests as soon as the
US and Afghan resistance clashes in Afghanistan.
The work was not carried out by an al-Qaeda
or jihadi outfit, instead believed to have been
initiated by underworld mercenaries who snatched a van at
gun point, loaded it with hydrogen peroxide, and parked it
near the US consulate. According to police officials,
there was not enough hydrogen peroxide to destroy the
consulate, and only partial damage would have resulted.
The purpose of the bombing attempt, therefore, was to
create a scare.
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