KARACHI - While the United States-led coalition
makes its latest attempt to round up Taliban and
al-Qaeda fighters on the Pakistan-Afghan border, new
evidence is reinforcing the certainty that the Afghan
resistance isn't just sitting around waiting to get
caught, and nor is the International Islamic Front going
to relent in its determination to wreak havoc on the US
and its allies elsewhere.
High-level sources
tell Asia Times Online the Afghan resistance movement
and the International Islamic Front - a loose umbrella
for a network of cells dedicated to jihad against
America - have finalized plans to enter a decisive phase
of their offensive, aimed at forcing the US-led
coalition out of Afghanistan by inflicting injuries on
the interests of the US and its allies both on and off
the battlefield.
On the Afghan-Pakistan
front Pakistan was informed quite some time ago
that US forces will be launching operations that will
result in a major clashes with Afghan guerrillas, who
are expected to try to melt into the Pakistani
mountains. However, this is not the complete story.
According to sources, different groups of trained
jihadis left Karachi for Pakistan's tribal areas of
South and North Waziristan about two weeks ago, where
they have now taken up position for their own attacks on
the US-led forces. These jihadis are said to have been
trained for suicide attacks in Kashmir against Indian
troops. Now their targets will be both Pakistani and US
troops. Pakistan has already mobilized 70,000 troops in
those same tribal areas - especially in South
Waziristan, Bajur Agency and Mohmand Agency.
The
Afghan resistance has adopted a strange modus operandi.
Though the resistance is clearly does not follow an
organized pattern yet, orders are trickling down from
Taliban leader Mullah Omar, not by any modern means but
through Mullah Obaidullah and Mullah Bruther. These two
Taliban officials hold meetings with different
commanders once every six months, when the commanders
are informed of the plan of action and targets. Even
their warfare strategies are quite basic; however the
Afghan resistance is sure to make an impact on the US as
soon as the snow melts from Afghan terrain.
Pakistani authorities, meanwhile, have set up
another operation in Wana to compliment the US's
recently launched operation Mountain Storm. But in a
dramatic development, Pakistani tribals have refused to
comply with federal government orders and have jointly
demanded the withdrawal of Pakistani forces. Tribal
groups are even said to have threatened Pakistan that if
tries to launch another operation there, war will be
inevitable. As a result, the operation has come to a
halt while Pakistan seeks ways of taking face-saving
steps in front of US authorities.
Since the
US-led "war on terror" began over two years ago, it has
brought little other than despair to Afghanistan. Though
the US disposed of the Taliban regime after two months
of intense bombardment, it has failed to fill the
political vacuum. Anarchy and instability remain the
order of the day. Because of this, the "war on terror"
has been taking on an unseen enemy with no known hide
outs. It emerges from somewhere, attacks, and disappears
to somewhere else. This game of hide-and-seek is able to
continue through the Taliban's proven ability to regroup
after carrying out small attacks and suicide missions.
The Taliban is now aiming to retake major Afghan cities
in the near future.
But this is not the lone
aspect of the US dilemma in Afghanistan. The areas which
are out of Taliban trouble - Kabul, Pansher,
Mazar-i-Sharif, etc - are controlled by warlords. At
present, there are at least 30 powerful warlords who do
not listen neither to Afghan interim President Hamid
Karzai nor the US. There is now strong cognizance on the
US's part that with the passage of time, several factors
are compounding to US woes in Afghanistan.
Therefore, the aim of the US is to catch Osama
bin Laden dead or alive and leave Afghanistan, saving
face by handing over the reins of power to "moderate
Taliban".
This week's visit of US Secretary of
State Colin Powell to Pakistan and Afghanistan is
expected to involve the finalizing of agendas in the
US's ongoing offensive. Powell's ultimate mission is to
arrive at strategies that will free the US from the
Afghan quicksand into which the Bush administration is
sinking ever deeper.
Meanwhile, well placed
sources maintain that in a review meeting between
Pakistan and US intelligence officials recently, the
failures of previous operations in Pakistani tribal
areas were discussed. The blame was leveled at several
Pakistani officials connected with the planning of the
operations, who are said to have been part of an
organized system of leakages.
Pressure is
mounting on Pakistan to help the US complete its agenda
in Afghanistan, or face the possibility of sanctions
over the country's nuclear proliferation through the
ties of Pakistani scientists to Libya, North Korea and
Iran.
The global plan of attack The
International Islamic Front's global operations are
likely to kick off when the Afghan resistance clashes
with US coalition forces in major Afghan cities in the
coming weeks. It is then that the network is expected to
exert pressure on the US and its allies through more
terror attacks, a new game that is likely to begin in
Pakistan.
The present war - the US versus the
International Islamic Front - is a situation
unprecedented in history, involving a superpower and an
opponent with no state, no organized force, only a few
known people, and a live-wire ideology that is creating
an expanding network of cells inspired by al-Qaeda. In
many radical Muslim organizations, breakaway factions
are being established which support and follow bin
Laden's program - whether they are in touch with him or
not. This is the situation in Iraq, where even the Baath
Party split and gave birth to jihadi factions. This is
happening within Pakistani jihadi outfits as well, with
members breaking away and becoming bin Laden followers.
Amid these developments, bin Laden is unlikely
to surface. Sources say the International Islamic Front
will carry out operations on the directives of just a
few individuals who visit their contacts only
occasionally in various regions. There is, once again, a
likelihood that the coming months will see a major
attack: a plane hitting a skyscraper in the US or a
"dirty bomb" being detonated in a strategic place in the
United Kingdom.
(Copyright 2003 Asia Times
Online Co, Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication
policies.)
