Sri Lanka's Tigers: Down but not
out By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Despite the blow it has suffered
following the rebellion of its eastern commander
"Colonel Karuna", it does seem that the Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) will play a significant
role in Sri Lanka's post-election government formation.
The LTTE is expected to emerge as a kingmaker, despite
the fact that the split in the organization has injected
new uncertainties into Sri Lankan politics.
Sri
Lanka goes to the polls on April 2 to elect a new
parliament. Two coalitions with roughly equal support -
the United National Front (UNF) and the United Peoples
Freedom Alliance (UPFA) - are in contention for control
of the 225-seat parliament. While the UPFA is a
coalition of President Chandrika Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Janata Vimukti Peramuna
(JVP), the UNF is led by Prime Minister Ranil
Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP).
Given Sri Lanka's proportional representation
electoral system and the fact that neither the UNF nor
the UPFA are expected to win a clear majority, it does
seem that the country is heading for a hung parliament.
This means that the minority - Tamil and Muslim -
parties will play a decisive role in government
formation.
Although the LTTE itself is not
contesting the election, it is backing the Tamil
National Alliance (TNA), a coalition of Tamil parties,
which accepts the LTTE as "the sole representative of
the Tamil people".
In previous elections, the
LTTE adopted an ambiguous strategy. It called on Tamil
voters to boycott the polls. Simultaneously, it signaled
who it wanted them to vote for. During the 1994
presidential and parliamentary elections, for instance,
it signaled support for Chandrika Kumaratunga. In 2001,
it called on Tamil voters to defeat Kumaratunga. Its
boycott of elections notwithstanding, the LTTE would
quietly back pro-Tiger candidates among the contestants.
This time the LTTE is playing a more visible and
direct role. It has publicly endorsed the TNA and called
on Tamils to vote for TNA candidates. The LTTE is said
to have vetted the TNA's list of candidates and some of
its leaders are openly campaigning for the TNA.
The LTTE may not be calling for a boycott of
elections as it used to in the past, but little seems to
have changed otherwise in its approach to democratic
politics. Its participation in the elections is
determined by its belief that nobody but the Tigers and
their proxies can claim to represent or seek to
represent the Tamil people. It has clearly expressed its
opposition to Sinhalese parties contesting in the Tamil
areas. In a statement that was published in the Jaffna
daily, Uthayan, the LTTE's political leader, Tamil
Chelvan, said that "majoritarian" parties (those from
the Sinhalese south) would not be permitted to contest
in the northeast, which the LTTE claims as the "Tamil
homeland". The Tigers are said to be obstructing the
election campaigns of non-TNA candidates. Several
non-TNA candidates have pulled out of the electoral race
and the LTTE is said to be behind the recent
election-related killings in Sri Lanka's Eastern
province.
A fortnight ago, Sinnathamby
Sunderapillai, the UNP's Batticaloa candidate, was shot
dead in a hospital, allegedly by the LTTE, where he was
being treated for injuries suffered during an earlier
attack. Another victim was P Yogeswaran, a 26-year old
member of the Eelam People's Democratic Party (EPDP) who
was gunned down in Batticaloa.
In the last
general election in 2001, the TNA won 15 seats in the
225-member Parliament. It is expected to increase its
tally in the upcoming elections. However, the split in
the LTTE following Karuna's rebellion has introduced an
element of uncertainty, especially in the Batticaloa
district in the east - Karuna's turf. While the TNA will
do better than in 2001, its performance might fall short
of initial expectations.
While the LTTE-backed
TNA is expected to sweep the seats in the overwhelmingly
Tamil Northern province, in the multi-ethnic Eastern
province, its victories could be limited to the
Tamil-dominated district of Batticaloa. Voting in the
east is usually along ethnic lines and Muslim and
Sinhalese voters are unlikely to vote for the TNA.
In an attempt at winning the Muslim vote, the
TNA has included Muslims in its list but that is
unlikely to cut ice with the community. Muslims believe
that the LTTE is behind the Tamil-Muslim riots that have
periodically rocked the Eastern province.
How
the rebellion by LTTE's erstwhile eastern commander,
Colonel Karuna, will play out in the electoral arena is
still not clear. Karuna is from Kiran in the eastern
district of Batticaloa, and while his rebellion has much
to do with his personal ambitions, the issues he has
raised reflect the rift not only between the eastern and
northern wings of the LTTE but also the deep antipathy
that eastern Tamils have toward their counterparts in
the north. Political commentators have suggested that
given Karuna's support in the east, the split could cut
into the TNA votes here.
Karuna's rebellion has
exposed the fissures within the LTTE. It has revealed
holes in the LTTE's claim to be the sole representative
of the Tamils. It has laid bare the fact that Velupillai
Prabakaran cannot lay claim to represent all Tigers.
This makes it all the more imperative for the LTTE that
its proxies to do well in the eastern districts in the
upcoming general elections.
The LTTE will look
to its proxies to validate its claims to being the sole
representative of the Tamils. A stepping up of
intimidation and violence against Tamil rivals can be
expected in the coming weeks.
With fighters
loyal to Prabakaran and Karuna preparing for a
confrontation, tension is mounting in the eastern
districts. People are afraid that when the bloodletting
begins, they will be caught in the crossfire. The Sunday
Leader reports that election campaign in the Batticaloa
district has been rather "low-key". With most political
parties postponing their meetings in the town, the only
indication of the impending polls are the cardboard
cut-outs of candidates that have been put up in party
offices and the election posters on walls.
The
TNA, which was the only party that was freely
campaigning in Batticaloa, has toned down its campaign
following the split in the LTTE. With fighters close to
Karuna and Prabakaran poised for a bloody showdown and
with parts of the district under Karuna's control, the
TNA is wary of being attacked by Karuna's men.
In Batticaloa, Karuna is seen as someone who
stood up for the eastern cadres and articulated the
grievances of eastern Tamils. However, war-weary Tamils
in the east are anxious for the ceasefire to continue. A
Batticaloa resident who now lives in India told Asia
Times Online that the primary interest of the Batticaloa
Tamil today is peace. "Karuna's rebellion has
jeopardized the ceasefire and people are upset about it.
Like the Jaffna Tamil in the 1980s who didn't mind which
militant outfit ruled him so long as the bloody
inter-group feuds ended, the Batticaloa Tamil doesn't
mind who controls the area so long as there is no
bloodletting," he explained.
Karuna's impact on
the election will depend on how he will consolidate his
position in the coming week. The Hindustan Times'
Colombo correspondent, P K Balachanddran writes that
Karuna's rebellion "is showing distinct signs of
weakening. Even though his revolt is 12 to 13 days old,
Karuna has failed to whip up tangible public enthusiasm
even in his fiefdom of Batticalao-Amparai, leave alone
the rest of the Sri Lankan east he claims to speak for."
At the same time, that Prabakaran has not been
able to eliminate Karuna yet cannot be ignored.
Even if the split in the LTTE cuts into the
TNA's votes, the TNA's electoral fortunes are likely to
gain considerably by the Election Commission's decision
to make arrangements for those living in "uncleared
areas" (areas under LTTE control) to vote. Batticaloa
District accounts for five seats in parliament.
The 2001 election saw three Tamils and two
Muslims winning the seats. In that election, a sizeable
section of the Tamil population in the uncleared areas
was prevented from voting by the security forces. Tamil
votes from the uncleared areas will help the TNA win
four of the five seats in Batticaloa. Gains for the TNA
because of arrangements for voting in the uncleared
areas in the Northern province are expected to be
larger.
A fortnight before voting, it is
impossible to predict which party will form the new
government in Sri Lanka. But one thing seems near
certain: the LTTE role - by proxy - in parliament is set
to increase.
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