NEW DELHI - US Secretary of State Colin Powell
couldn't help but be impressed during his just-concluded
South Asia visit with the positive result of his efforts
in the past two years to further peace between two
nuclear neighbors, India and Pakistan. There is an
extraordinary atmosphere of goodwill in the subcontinent
with the resumption of official-level dialogue and
confidence-building measures such as the resumption of
travel, transport and, above all, cricketing ties.
But when the time came for the United States to
distribute rewards for good behavior, India received a
bit of a shock. Before Powell's visit, speculation in
Delhi was about what rewards India - the peacemaker and
responsible nuclear power - would be granted and what
punishment Pakistan would receive for its mischief after
the revelation that it had been proliferating weapons
technology to so-called rogue nation Libya and the
remaining members of the US-designated "axis of evil" -
Iran and North Korea.
This isn't the way things
panned out. It was the bad boy on the block who was
rewarded, perhaps understandably so from the US point of
view. After all, it is harder for the bad boys to
reform. Pakistan has taken measures to stop infiltration
of terrorists from its side of the Line of Control (LOC)
that separates the Indian and Pakistani state of Jammu
and Kashmir, promised to stop the nuclear-proliferation
activities of its scientists. and is fighting the
Taliban and al-Qaeda remnants within its borders.
But though Powell is mumbling a lot of sweet
nothings, India is deeply disappointed. Instead of
receiving a sharp rap on the knuckles, and a very
well-deserved one too, the Pakistan military has been
designated a major non-NATO (North Atlantic Treaty
Organization) military ally of the United States for the
purpose of future military-to-military relations,
facilitating its acquisition of military hardware and
other goodies that were not available to Pakistan
before. It will enhance military cooperation between the
two countries dramatically. The tangible military
benefits will include priority delivery of the US
military's "excess defense articles".
Powell has
assured India, however, that no decision had yet been
made on selling F-16 aircraft to Pakistan. He has also
said that the US is considering a similar relationship
with India too.
Of course, India is rattled.
Pakistan, though always a major non-NATO ally of the US,
has now formally become part of a privileged group of
countries that includes Australia, New Zealand, Israel,
Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Egypt and
Argentina.
The timing of the move is very bad
from the point of view of India's ruling party. One of
the main planks in its re-election bid is the success it
claims to have achieved in building close strategic ties
with the United States. The special relationship with
the sole superpower was an important part of Prime
Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee's "feel good" electoral
package. The opposition will inevitably use this slight
by the US to highlight the hollowness of the Indian
government's claims.
To be fair, the United
States is willing to reward India in a variety of ways
as well. Washington has expressed a desire for India to
participate in its controversial Proliferation Security
Initiative (PSI) and is beginning official-level
discussions on how the Indian navy and air force can
contribute to the US-led non-proliferation coalition
established to stop "suspect" shipping on the high seas.
The US is also trying to encourage Pakistan to bring
about a permanent end to "cross-border violence" in
Kashmir.
But the United States is also asking
India to open up its markets further and outsource some
of its services to the US, if it wants to continue to
benefit from the outsourcing of US jobs to India.
India's hopes that US President George W Bush's "Next
Steps in the Strategic Partnership with India" would
lead to easier access to US high technology have also
been dashed. A senior US official stated recently that
India would receive no substantial technology unless the
US was satisfied that India had tightened export
controls. The US had placed severe restrictions on the
transfer of dual-use technologies, which have both
civilian and military applications, to India after its
1974 nuclear tests.
Powell and the peace
process The first hiccup on the hitherto smooth
peace process between India and Pakistan took place just
a couple of days before Powell's visit. Vajpayee, who is
seeking re-election nine months before it was due, was
hoping to cash in on the peace process, which is
immensely popular in the country - particularly among
its 150 million Muslim population. The ruling Hindu
fundamentalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is for the
first time appealing for Muslim votes on the same
ground.
But Pakistani President General General
Pervez Musharraf once again emphasized the importance of
Kashmir while addressing Indian strategic intellectuals
through satellite. In his prepared speech last Saturday
for an international conference organized by India Today
magazine in New Delhi, Musharraf was more than explicit
in restating his country's traditional position on
Kashmir. In fact, the Pakistani president referred to
Kashmir as the central issue of Indo-Pakistani relations
a half-dozen times.
Musharraf also indicated
that confidence-building measures would be held hostage
depending on the progress of Kashmir, as recently
happened in the case of official-level talks on resuming
transport links between the Indian state of Rajasthan
and the Pakistani state of Sindh. He made a thinly
veiled call for the United States to broker a Kashmir
solution if it really wants to dampen the fires of
Islamic militancy. He even indirectly raised the United
Nations plebiscite bogy, though he had himself
discounted the possibility only a few months ago on the
eve of the summit meeting of the South Asian Association
of Regional Cooperation held in Islamabad.
This
is certainly not the first time Musharraf has changed
his tune. Some observers have, however, blamed
"provocative questioning" on the part of Indian
strategic thinkers for his "combative demeanor". He is
known to behave more like the trained commando that he
essentially is than like a diplomat when under pressure.
Indians wanted him to clarify his stand on Kashmir. He
felt that Indians were implying that he was
unnecessarily raising the Kashmir issue and, if so, they
were divorced from the reality on the ground. Even if he
himself wanted to, he said, he could not change the fact
that Kashmir was the main dispute between India and
Pakistan.
Musharraf may have wanted to pass a
message to the United States as well. He may have wanted
both India and the US not to be beguiled by the largely
successful progress of peace talks and the general
atmosphere of extraordinary bonhomie on the subcontinent
with growing people-to-people contacts. The gentlemanly
cricketing behavior of spectators of both the Karachi
and Peshawar one-day matches has indeed earned a large
measure of goodwill for Pakistan in India. Indian
cricketers too appear to have won the hearts of
Pakistani cricket fans, as per the advice of the Indian
prime minister, who had specifically asked them to win
not only matches but also Pakistani hearts. But
Musharraf apparently doesn't want anyone to become too
mesmerized by the goodwill generated by recent events
and forget about Kashmir.
Not that anyone in
India is enthralled by the peace atmospherics or
Musharraf's promises. Indian forces are on alert as
melting snow on the LOC eases the possibility of
militant infiltration. Security officials in Jammu and
Kashmir have constantly remained doubtful about
Pakistan's commitment to completely end infiltration.
A senior army intelligence official told Asia
Times Online that the real test of the promise of peace
begins now that melting snow has opened up new routes
for terrorist groups to replenish and reinforce their
cadre in the state. Only two terrorists infiltrated in
the month of February, but the figure was the same last
year too, he said.
He was also hopeful, however,
because infiltration would have begun picking up from
the beginning of March in the absence of any peace
initiative as had happened last year. The army did
detect two simultaneous infiltration attempts on the
night of March 3. Three of four terrorists who had come
across from the Poonch district were killed, while one
escaped. The forces recovered two AK rifles, currency
and three cameras. The second attempt took place in
Rajouri district near Thana Mandi. The security forces
killed both terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba.
Two AK rifles, currency, medicines and a radio set were
recovered.
Only three groups were detected while
attempting to enter the state from Pakistan until
Monday, and eight militants belonging to them were
killed. Two militants of a group trying to leave Kashmir
and return to Pakistan were also intercepted and killed
while trying to cross the border. Only if infiltration
does indeed remain down in the coming weeks compared
with previous years, one may be able to conclude that
the Pakistani government is keeping its word. So far the
prognostication is not bad.
From the remarks
made by Powell, it is clear that the US too is watching
the situation very carefully. Powell said in Delhi he
would speak to Musharraf about taking action against
terrorist camps. The dismantling of terrorist
infrastructure from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir is a
long-standing Indian demand. On whether Pakistan had
taken steps to dismantle terrorist training camps, he
said one of the "essential elements" of the recent
agreement between India and Pakistan was an end to
cross-border violence. Saying he was "pleased" that
activity across the LOC had come down significantly,
Powell added that he hoped it would stay that way. "We,
of course, will be watching as the spring season
approaches," he said, aware of Indian concerns about
renewed infiltration once the snows melt.
Addressing a joint press conference with Indian
External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, Powell said he
would also speak to Musharraf about "any involvement" of
past Pakistani governments in nuclear proliferation, or
anything "contemporary" in nature relating to what
Washington refers to as the "A Q Khan network". Asked
whether his comment that no decision had been made on
selling F-16s to Pakistan reflected a shift in the Bush
administration's position, Powell said: "My comment over
here was that we have to take into consideration any
requests that are made of us; but no decisions have been
made with respect to any particular military package,
especially F-16s." He said last year's US$3 billion
economic aid package for Pakistan did not include F-16s.
Another area of major concern for India was what
the US was doing to ensure that Pakistan was not able to
continue its nuclear-proliferation activities. About the
"role" of the Pakistani government in nuclear
proliferation, Powell said: "We certainly know the role
played by Dr [Abdul Qadeer] Khan for some time now ...
We are pleased that Dr Khan has acknowledged what he has
done and we are pleased that we are getting a great deal
of information from Pakistani authorities as a result of
their interrogation of Dr Khan and his associates." He
said the "Khan network" was "being broken up", making it
clear that more had to be done. "I think we have had a
real breakthrough with what Dr Khan has acknowledged and
our ability to roll up different parts of the network.
We cannot be satisfied till the entire network is gone -
branch and root."
Powell said he was confident
that if Musharraf was determined to get to the heart of
this network, then the residual elements could be dealt
with. "With respect to who else was involved ... in past
Pakistani governments or anything ... contemporary in
nature, I will speak to President Musharraf about this,"
he said. "There is much more work to be done."
Meanwhile, Powell said he had had a "good
discussion" with Sinha on Indian participation in the
PSI. Stating that the US wanted India to participate in
the security initiative, Powell said officials of the
two countries would now discuss the issue. Meanwhile,
according to Sinha, there was no discussion on India
signing the International Atomic Energy Agency's
Additional Protocol to curb nuclear proliferation. It
was originally feared that the US would pressure India
to sign.
Despite disappointment in India across
the board, particularly on account of Pakistan being
officially designated a major non-NATO ally of the US,
some Indian observers are willing to take a more
charitable view. The major newspaper Indian Express, for
instance, commented in an editorial written before the
announcement about Pakistan's new status: "What we need
to remember is that the core interests of India and the
US converge across a whole range of issues. But it would
be unrealistic to believe that there will be no
differences. There is a need, therefore, to ensure that
divergences of perceptions, interests and policies
between the two countries are also managed in a mature
fashion as much as the convergences are taken forward
from strength to strength. For example, unsolicited
'advice' from the US State Department on missile testing
by India, when actually it was Pakistan that had tested
missiles imported clandestinely, is not very helpful.
Nor for that matter would equating outsourcing with the
omnibus mantra of opening up the economy. In this
context, Powell's reassurances to India on outsourcing
are most welcome."
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