Musharraf left counting the
cost
By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
KARACHI - The 12-day Pakistani
army operation in the South Waziristan tribal area near
the Afghan frontier is winding down following the
release on Sunday of 12 government officials and
soldiers seized by alleged al-Qaeda fighters and tribal
allies. Similarly, a number of tribal suspects held by
the army have been set free or will be released soon.
Those released by the tribals were among 14
people captured at the start of a clash in which more
than 100 people have been killed. After cordoning off
the area around Wana in South Waziristan with over 5,000
troops and losing about 50 soldiers in the offensive,
the military says that "we have almost achieved our set
targets" in driving al-Qaeda fugitives and Afghan
resistance fighters from the region.
Tension has
been high after the execution of eight Pakistan
soldiers, who had been taken hostage by the fighters
during an ambush on an army convoy last Tuesday.
The end of open hostilities, however, is only
the beginning, and far from achieving its targets, the
army, and Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf,
are left with far bigger problems than when they first
embarked on the mission into the tribal region nearly
two weeks ago.
Call for help
Although
the Pakistan army has put a brave face on its South
Waziristan escapade, claiming that its job has been
done, in reality it had to rely on outside help to
extricate itself with a semblance of its "face" intact.
After all efforts to pacify the hostile tribals
failed - the semi-autonomous regions are notoriously
anti-central authority - the government persuaded
leading clerics to bring pressure to bear on the tribals
to negotiate a truce. The clerics, who belong to the
six-party Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) religious
political party that is well represented in the National
Assembly as well as the provincial governments of North
West Frontier Province and Balochistan, are usually
perceived as anti-US, but in fact, when the chips are
down, they dance to Musharraf's tune.
The army
sought help from the clerics on two fronts:
To use their influence among the tribes to get them
to compromise;
To prevent the spread of a campaign started by some
extreme religious leaders in Islamabad in which soldiers
serving in the tribal regions were to be denied funeral
rites.
Winners and losers
Despite
heavy United States pressure for a sustained campaign in
Pakistan to once and for all drive all insurgents (both
foreign fighters and Afghan resistance) from their
sanctuaries in the tribal areas, the operation has now
ended.
In terms of the broader picture, the plan
was for the Pakistan army on the one side and US troops
across the border in Afghanistan to sandwich all
resistance between a "hammer and an anvil" and drive
them from the Shawal area - an inhospitable no man's
land that straddles the border. This is nowhere near to
being achieved.
And there has been a strong
backlash against the Pakistan establishment, both in the
tribal areas and in the country in general, the extent
of which has severely rattled the country's leaders.
Indeed, according to insiders who spoke to Asia Times
Online, there is a perception that, given the failings
of the South Waziristan operation, there is an "an
intelligence within an intelligence" and "an army within
an army" in Pakistan and that factions in these
organizations backed the tribals "in the name of Islam".
According to sources, more than 150 soldiers of the army
and para-military forces refused to take part in the
action, including at least one colonel and a major.
The release of a tape last week purported to
have been made by Ayman al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's
No 2 in al-Qaeda, also shook the establishment.
Al-Zawahiri was reported to be the "high profile target"
of the South Wazaristan operation. In the tape,
al-Zawahiri called Musharraf a "traitor" and urged
people to overthrow his government. "Musharraf seeks to
stab the Islamic resistance in Afghanistan in the back.
Every Muslim in Pakistan should work hard to get rid of
this client government, which will continue to submit to
America until it destroys Pakistan," the speaker on the
tape said.
As a result, for the first time ever,
the Inter-Services Intelligence, Military Intelligence
and the Intelligence Bureau on Friday conducted a survey
in which they canvassed the opinions of professionals,
including writers and lawyers, on the possible
repercussions of the taped speech.
The political
backlash of the South Waziristan operation has been so
powerful that Musharraf has inducted former dictator
General Zia ul-Haq's son, Ejazul Haq, into the federal
cabinet as minister for religious affairs in order to
use his good offices - as the son of the staunchly
pro-Islam leader - with the religious segments of
society.
Tribals take stock
Soon after
the truce was announced on Sunday and the Pakistan army
began returning to its camp, pamphlets in the Pashto
language were widely distributed in Bannu, North
Waziristan and South Waziristan. They claimed: "Do not
ever make the mistake of chasing the mujahideen of the
Taliban and al-Qaeda." The pamphlets clearly warned
those tribals who had cooperated with Pakistan and spied
on the fugitives.
In a public gathering on
Monday in Wana in South Wazaristan, religious and tribal
leaders gathered to take stock. "It was just like
Jasn-e-Fatah [D-Day-like celebrations]," a contact who
was present told Asia Times Online. "Wazir tribals
presented turbans to more than 100 jirga
[council] people as a gesture of thanks and confidence."
Members of the National Assembly in Islamabad
and others gave speeches, the gist of which can be
summarized as follows:
Congratulations to all the tribes for fighting as a
united nation.
The tribes had once again proved their "glorious
traditions" of fighting evil.
The Federally-Administered Tribal Areas will remain
independent.
The Central administration is always hostile to the
tribal people and has established new traditions of
"cruelty and barbarism".
Musharraf was misguided about the alleged presence
of bin Laden and al-Zawahiri and other al-Qaeda people.
The meeting concluded that the army had
destroyed 84 houses in its search for fugitives, and
that claims that the fugitives had used long tunnels to
escape were nonsense. In fact, these are trenches that
have been used for many years to carry water. Now the
army has destroyed them - and with it the region's water
system.
The meeting concluded by saying that
those who died in the trouble were shaheed
(martyrs), and apologized for the army personal who
died, saying it was the fault of the "high ups".
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