Tigers' shadow over Sri Lankan polls
By Sudha Ramachandran

BANGALORE - Sri Lanka goes to the polls on Friday to elect a new parliament. The election, the third in four years, is unlikely to render a clear verdict, and a hung parliament is in the cards. What is near certain, however, is that politics and the peace process on this island are heading towards choppier waters.

The contest for control of the 225-seat parliament is a neck-and-neck race between two coalitions - the United National Front (UNF) and the United People's Freedom Alliance (UPFA). Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe's United National Party (UNP) is the core component of the UNF. The UPFA is a coalition of President Chandrika Kumaratunga's Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) and the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP).

The election campaign has been marked by violence, although it is much less than witnessed during the election campaign in 2001. On Tuesday, Rajan Sathyamoorthi, a candidate of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) was shot dead in the eastern district of Batticaloa. This was the third political killing in three days. Earlier this month, the UNP's Batticaloa candidate and a member of the anti-Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) party, the People's Democratic Party (EPDP), were gunned down in Batticaloa. About 1,200 incidents of election-related violence were reported across the island during the election campaign.

Neither of the two main contenders is expected to obtain the 113 seats required for a simple majority in parliament. The problem in part is because Sri Lanka has a proportional representation system, an electoral system wherein a two-thirds majority is near impossible to attain. Besides, there is no wave in favor of one bloc. With the two main contenders enjoying roughly equal support, it does seem that even a simple majority will elude them.

Friday's election comes three years ahead of schedule. Months of bickering between the president and the prime minister culminated in the former dissolving parliament and calling for elections. One of the key issues of contention between them was Wickremesinghe's conduct of the peace talks with the LTTE. Kumaratunga has accused Wickremesinghe of conceding too much ground to the LTTE.

Kumaratunga's gamble in calling for elections at this juncture appears to have been prompted by the hope that the electorate, tired of the instability inherent in the cohabitation arrangement over the past two years, would give the UPFA a clear mandate. However, it was clear even at the time she dissolved parliament that fresh elections would only plunge Sri Lanka into more political uncertainty. If anything, the election has only worsened the rivalry between Kumaratunga and Wickremesinghe.

With the two main contenders unlikely to be able to form a government on their own, the support of smaller parties will prove critical, rendering the government vulnerable to pressures from them.

If the UPFA forms the new government, both the president and prime minister will be from the same party. While this will bring to an end the uneasy cohabitation arrangement of the past two years, it spells bad news for the peace process.

For one, while Kumaratunga has said she is in favor of a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict, she is opposed to the way Wickremesinghe's government conducted the talks with the LTTE. A UPFA government is sure to call for a re-negotiation of some of the terms on which agreement was reached by the precious government. This will not be acceptable to the Tigers.

Then there are serious concerns about the JVP, Kumaratunga's main ally in the UPFA coalition. The JVP's position on the peace process - it is virulently opposed to talks with the LTTE and also to any devolution of power to Tamil areas as a way to resolve the conflict - is worrying as it will lead to the complete collapse of the already ailing initiative. Even if Kumaratunga pursues negotiations with the LTTE, the UPFA government's dependence on the JVP and pressure from the latter will prevent the peace initiative from moving forward. There are fears that a UPFA victory will not only result in the complete collapse of the peace process but also a return to war.

If Wickremesinghe is returned to power, the bickering between him and the president will continue. The problems he faced over the past year in negotiating a settlement to the conflict will persist. He will, of course, be emboldened by the fresh mandate but that will not make compromise with the president any easier.

A UNF government is expected to be propped up by the Tamil Nationalist Alliance (TNA) a coalition of Tamil parties that is expected to win 18-20 seats. The TNA is backed by the LTTE and its candidates are viewed as Tiger proxies. If the UNF government is dependent on TNA support, its vulnerability to Tiger pressure will be immense.

Opinion polls indicate that the UPFA has a slight edge over the UNP and could emerge as the single largest party. It is advantage Kumaratunga. A sizeable section of Sri Lankan voters do not want another spell of cohabitation. They are fed up with a president and prime minister from different parties battling constantly for supremacy. Since Kumaratunga will remain in office until next year, many are expected to vote for the UPFA, if only to end the cohabitation arrangement.

In the last election, the UNF came to power with around 45 percent of the vote. The People's Alliance, of which the SLFP was the core component, secured around 37 percent of the votes and its current ally, the JVP, got 9 percent of the votes. Now together, the SLFP-JVP combine expect to edge out the UNF.

Moreover, the UPFA is expected to be the main beneficiary of the Election Commission's decision not to set up polling booths in the "uncleared areas" , the areas under Tiger control. The move to exclude these areas from the election (around 275,000 Tamil voters will not be able to exercise their franchise) will undercut the vote for the TNA, which is expected to back the UNF.

Besides, the UPFA has successfully managed to put the UNF on the defensive during the election campaign. The ceasefire with the LTTE has been the main election plank of the UNF. Wickremesinghe has been pointing out to the voters that he alone can bring peace to the island. However, Kumaratunga has skillfully shifted the focus of the debate away from peace to the state of the economy.

While the peace dividend set the tone for the early days of the election campaign, Kumaratunga managed to put her rivals on the back foot by shifting the focus of the campaign to the UNP's non-performance on the economic front. The ceasefire, she has pointed out, is the UNP's only achievement. She has drawn the attention of the voters to the high cost of living and unemployment under the Wickremesinghe government. She and her JVP allies seem to have successfully convinced a sizeable section of the electorate, especially in rural southern Sri Lanka, that the ceasefire has brought only peace but no economic dividend to the rural poor, that prosperity has not come with the "flawed peace process".

But even if the UPFA manages to emerge as the largest party in this election, there is a possibility that the UNF, with support from the TNA, could end up forming the government. This would be a case of the UPFA winning the battle for the ballot and losing the war to form the new government. This scenario could again weaken the peace process, as the president is sure to attribute the UPFA's victory at the ballot box to the electorate's rejection of the UNF's peace initiative.

Meanwhile, tension in Batticaloa is mounting. The rebellion of the LTTE's eastern commander, "Colonel" Karuna, and his subsequent expulsion from the organization has led to fears that Tigers loyal to the LTTE leader Velupillai Prabakaran and those loyal to Karuna will settle scores in the coming weeks. Sathyamoorthi, the TNA candidate who was assassinated earlier this week, is reported to have been pro-Karuna and had apparently organized anti-Prabakaran rallies in the east. The assassination is said to be the work of the LTTE.

The likely Karuna-Prabakaran bloodletting has triggered of fears that the ceasefire could unravel, as there is a possibility that the Sri Lankan armed forces could be drawn into the fighting. Karuna has demanded that the government must negotiate a new ceasefire agreement with him. How the new government will tackle this explosive issue remains to be seen. It is unlikely that the new government, whether one headed by the UNF or the UPFA, would concede Karuna's demand, for that would put Prabakaran on the warpath.

Sri Lankans will go to the polling booths with little to look forward to from this election. The future is tense.

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