Sri Lanka's bad moon keeps
rising By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Sri Lanka's general election has, as
expected, thrown up a fractured mandate. While President
Chandrika Kumaratunga's United People's Freedom Alliance
(UPFA) has emerged as the largest single party, it has
fallen short of a simple majority. However, what is more
worrying than the fractured mandate is that the UPFA
government is likely to be a fractious one.
A
sample of what lies ahead became evident even as it
became clear that the UPFA would be forming the new
government. Sharp differences within the Sri Lanka
Freedom Party (SLFP), the senior constituent of the
UPFA, surfaced over the issue of who would be the new
prime minister. Kumaratunga was keen to swear in
Lakshman Kadirgamar, a former foreign minister, as prime
minister. Fierce opposition from within her party to
that decision forced her to retract and name Mahinda
Rajapakse as the country's new premier. More serious
are the tensions between the SLFP and its ally in the
UPFA, the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), a party of
former Marxist revolutionaries, now Sinhalese
nationalists. There are differences on economic policy
as well as on the ethnic conflict.
On the ethnic
conflict, although Kumaratunga has bitterly criticized
outgoing prime minister Ranil Wickremesinghe for giving
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) too much
ground during the peace talks, she has stressed
commitment to the ceasefire and will be keen to see the
revival of the talks. Besides, she is not opposed to a
federal solution to the problem.
The JVP is
virulently anti-Tiger, even anti-Tamil, and is opposed
to a federal solution to the ethnic conflict. It is
against devolution of power to the Tamil areas and
instead wants decentralization of administration -
something the LTTE will never accept. The JVP has even
said that it did not intend to carry the truce forward.
How the new government resolves these differences to
revive the deadlocked peace process remains to be seen.
Of the 105 seats in the 225-member parliament
that the coalition won in last Friday's election, the
JVP accounts for 40. The new government is a minority
government and it cannot ignore the demands and
pressures that the JVP is sure to impose on it in the
coming months. The last time Sri Lanka had a minority
government was in the early 1960s. That government
lasted for two months.
Complicating the
government's effort to find a solution to the ethnic
conflict is the emergence of the Tamil National Alliance
(TNA) as the third largest party in the new parliament.
The TNA is a coalition of pro-LTTE parties that are
expected to function as a mouthpiece of the LTTE in
parliament.
Amid allegations of intimidation and
vote rigging by the LTTE, the TNA won eight of nine
seats in Jaffna - the heartland of Tamil politics - and
12 seats from the rest of the north and east, which the
LTTE calls the "traditional homeland" of the Tamil
people. Under Sri Lanka's complex electoral laws, the
TNA is eligible for an extra seat, taking its tally in
parliament to 22.
Many have described the TNA's
good showing in the elections as Tamil endorsement for
the peace initiative of the past two years and of the
LTTE.
The LTTE itself has projected the verdict
as a victory to the Tigers. An official communique
released by the LTTE and quoted by the pro-LTTE Tamilnet
website states that the verdict in the election shows
that the concepts of Tamil homeland, Tamil nationalism
and the right for Tamil self-rule should be the basis
for resolving the ethnic conflict. Otherwise, "the Tamil
people will fight to establish Tamil sovereignty in
their homeland on the principle of self-determination",
the LTTE has warned.
If talks between the new
government and the LTTE are revived, a significant
hardening of positions on both sides is very likely.
This hardening on the government's side will be because
Kumaratunga has been critical of Wickremesinghe's many
concessions to the LTTE over the past two years. Her
party cannot now be seen to be caving in to LTTE
demands. Besides, the JVP is unlikely to give much
ground to the LTTE.
The LTTE can be expected to
harden its position because of the recent split in the
organization, following the rebellion of its former
eastern commander, "Colonel" Karuna. Karuna has accused
the LTTE leadership of discriminating against eastern
Tamils and Tigers. Being seen to be weak at the
negotiation table with regard to issues of concern to
the eastern Tamils will be playing into Karuna's hands.
Of the 22 candidates who won on the TNA ticket,
five are said to be Karuna loyalists. They are all from
the east. Four of them are from Batticaloa and one from
Amparai. Karuna, who was the LTTE's commander in charge
of Batticaloa-Amparai area, has considerable support in
this area. Karuna, it appears, ensured before his
rebellion that the TNA list of candidates from the east
consisted of persons loyal to him.
Tamil
watchers perceive the victory of Karuna's candidates in
the east as a setback to the LTTE. What would add salt
to the Tigers' injuries in the east is the defeat of
Joseph Pararajasingham, a staunch loyalist of Tiger
supremo Velupillai Prabakaran. During his election
campaign, Pararajasingham pitted his advocacy of Tamil
nationalism against Karuna's regionalism.
On the
eve of polling, Rajan Sathiamoorthi, a TNA candidate and
Karuna loyalist, was gunned down - allegedly by the
LTTE. That killing is believed to have taken place not
only to intimidate Karuna loyalists, but the eastern
Tamil electorate as well. However, voters in the east
appear to have not paid heed to the LTTE's warnings.
Voter turnout in Karuna's turf was as high as 70
percent; that in other Tiger areas was between 35 to 40
percent.
Media reports had suggested that the
five pro-Karuna members of parliament would extend
support to the UPFA government and that Karuna would ask
for ministerial posts in return. That has not happened
so far.
Taking support of the Karuna loyalists
is a tempting option for the new government. Some see
this as a strategy that has the potential to worsen the
rift within the LTTE and to weaken it.
Karuna
has already indicated that the government cannot ignore
him in the peace talks. The elections have given him -
through his five loyalists in parliament - some
political clout in Colombo. Much, of course, depends on
whether the five remain loyal to him - and he will do
his best to maneuver some mileage for himself from this.
However, wooing Karuna at this juncture will
destroy whatever little remains of the peace process.
The LTTE has warned that if the government tries to cut
a separate deal with Karuna, it will be the end of the
peace process.
What role the Karuna loyalists in
the TNA will play in the new parliament is unclear. They
are likely to be in a dilemma as they are under threat
from both Karuna and Prabakaran. Prabakaran is notorious
for his ruthlessness and has shown little mercy in the
past to those he regards as traitors to the Tamil cause.
A statement issued by the LTTE to eastern Tigers on
March 25 accused Karuna of betraying "the freedom
struggle. To safeguard our nation and our people, it has
been decided to get rid of Karuna from our soil," it
warned.
The LTTE ordered its cadres "to
comprehend Karuna's treachery and keep away from him.
Anybody who opposes disciplinary action against Karuna
will be considered as a traitor to the Tamil national
cause."
Since the split in early March, tension
between those loyal to Karuna and the LTTE headed by
Prabakaran has deepened. Several eastern Tamils
suspected to be close to Karuna have been killed. And
Karuna has struck back. He issued a public notice
calling on all "treacherous elements" to quit the east
within 24 hours. There are a sizeable number of people
of Jaffna origin in Batticaloa and Karuna's cadres have
taken over their property and business assets. An exodus
of Jaffna Tamils residing in the east has begun.
Karuna's assertion in last week's election is
likely to worsen the tension in Sri Lanka's east. While
the likely fratricidal fighting between Karuna and
Prabakaran loyalists is itself worrying, what is likely
to be a bigger challenge for the new government is
dealing with the situation in the event of the fighting
spreading and involving ordinary civilians - Tamils,
Muslims and Sinhalese. Should this happen, the Lankan
army cannot look the other way. If it is drawn into the
fighting, that will be the end of the ceasefire.
Those who can flee the likely fratricidal
fighting are doing so. This is a luxury the five
pro-Karuna TNA MPs do not have.
While other
victors in last week's elections will be celebrating
their entry into parliament, the five pro-Karuna TNA MPs
will be regretting having contested the poll in the
first place. They are damned if they extend support to
Prabakaran and doomed if they remain loyal to Karuna.
(Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
