MUMBAI -
Satish Mathur, commissioner of police for traffic in
Mumbai, doled out numbers that could cripple the city's
stature as a leading business hub in Asia: 1.6 million
vehicles on overloaded roads and 300 new vehicles a day.
With a 30 percent projected annual increase, traffic
congestion in Mumbai could make Bangkok's legendary
Sukhumvit Road appear as a fast-paced freeway in
comparison.
"Traffic management in Mumbai is a
serious problem," Mathur nodded, with one eye on the
live India versus Pakistan cricket match from a muted
television in his spacious office. With Maruti cars
available for a monthly installment of less than US$100,
and Indian auto giant Tata Motors ($3.4 billion turnover
last fiscal) planning to sell a $2,000 car, future
Mumbai traffic chiefs will unlikely find the time to
enjoy sports telecasts during office hours.
Rising incomes, an increased population, easier
loans from cash-flush banks, cheaper cars, insufficient
public transport and limited land all contribute to a
crisis with implications beyond returning home late for
dinner. A Texas Transportation Institute study says Los
Angeles loses $1.5 billion a year from traffic
congestion; Bangkok loses up to 6 percent of its
economic production. Mumbai contributes over one-third
of India's tax revenues, generates about 5 percent of
the national gross domestic product, and any
work-related crisis here hammers a large dent into the
Indian economy.
The World Bank says urban motor
vehicle ownership and usage is growing faster worldwide
than the urban population. Mathur's 2,300 traffic
officers and their 70 vehicles serve a city of 14
million people, estimated to reach 22 million by 2011.
Presently, 88 percent of Mumbai residents use public
transport. But even a 10 percent shift to private
vehicles, Mathur declared, would make the city's road
traffic unmanageable. Mix these figures with terrible
road discipline and Mumbai is cruising towards having
the world's worst urban traffic chaos.
"Use
public transport. Save Mumbai" urges graffiti outside a
bus stand in the Tardeo area of Mumbai, another
traffic-snarled area. But a shockingly overcrowded
public transport system turns such sentiment into a
cruel joke. A peak hour average of over 4,000 passengers
pack into a hot, badly ventilated electric train against
its capacity of 1,800 and a crush load capacity of 2,600
per train. Bus queues outside Andheri railway station
are so long that they wind back up the staircase of the
railway station.
The Mumbai topography abets the
crisis, with a forefinger-shaped 18 kilometer peninsula
pointing down the Arabian Sea. Three arterial roads
carry the brunt of the traffic. The expansion of old
roads needs the politically tall order of removing
pavement dwellers and street traders. Hawkers at
Kalbadevi, a bustling business area, spread their wares
on bonnets of parked cars that they know will not be
moved during the day.
Hotly debated alternatives
have not made much headway. They include sky trains a-la
Bangkok, sea transport and behemoth plans like the $943
million Mumbai Urban Transport Project - with a $542
million World Bank loan - to improve travelling
conditions in Mumbai.
A recent Mumbai High
Court-supported scheme wants vehicles with a designated
last digit registration number grounded for four days a
week. Commissioner Mathur dismissed the idea as
impractical. "They want manual implementation, and so do
my officers want to spend their entire day staring at
license plates?" he demands. Instead, he wants to
discourage the purchase of cars. "Don't allow
depreciation," he says. "Now you can actually make money
by selling your car after two years and buying a new
car."
But the great Indian middle class dream of
owning a car looks rosier than ever. The Society of
Indian Automobiles Manufacturers says car sales grew
from 31 percent between April 2003 and February 2004.
With auto majors such as Mercedes, BMW, Chrysler, Ford,
Hyundai, Toyota, Honda and Skoda unveiling ambitious
plans for the Indian market, car sales head for an
extended boom.
"Fortunately, I see more
suburbanites using public transport on weekdays and
their cars on weekends," says Ralph Pais, Western India
general manager of a leading Indian newspaper, who has
been driving on Mumbai roads for 30 years. But suburban
parking has created a new problem, with squabbles over
parking space in congested, upwardly mobile
neighborhoods such as Bandra, Andheri, Ghatkopar and
Kandivli. A local daily has begun running a series on
the city's parking crisis.
Bina Balakrishnan, a
transportation planning consultant who did a study on
the future transportation needs of Mumbai, advocates
higher parking charges and a congestion surcharge, as
London implemented on February 17. Motorists entering
eight square miles of central London pay a congestion
tax of $8. Singapore has been charging road users since
1975. Hong Kong, however, tried and abandoned the plan.
"Increasing road capacity is a short-term
solution," Balakrishan feels. "We need to look at ways
to discourage unnecessary driving into the city. Have
road user charges and real-estate value linked parking
charges."
The Bombay Municipal Corporation has
87 pay-and-park sites, and short-changes itself with a
meagre annual parking revenue of $700,000. Two
multi-storeyed car parks are being planned at Nariman
Point and Bhulabhai Desai Road. But with one million or
more private vehicles expected to hit the roads by 2011,
Mumbai needs more desperate remedies to keep business
buzzing as usual.
Raja M is an
independent writer based in Mumbai, India
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