Indian polls: It's Sonia's
party By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Disproving every opinion survey
carried out over the past several months, the Indian
National Congress-led alliance has stormed to power in
India. While the Congress is still short of a simple
majority on its own strength, with its allies it is
expected to cobble up the number required to form a new
government.
The big
question at this juncture is not whether it will form
the government, not even whether its allies will agree
to support a government led by Sonia Gandhi, the
Italian-born president of the
Congress, but whether Sonia is competent to rule India
for the next five years.
When elections to the
14th Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) were
announced some months ago, the question uppermost in
many minds in India was whether "foreign" Sonia had it
in her to campaign. In fact, it did seem just some weeks
ago that Sonia was the Congress' big liability. Many
secular Indians were considering voting for the Hindu
right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime
Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, if only because they did
not want a "foreigner" to rule the country.
The
Congress victory in the just-concluded general elections
has put to rest somewhat some of these arguments. Sonia
Gandhi led the Congress election campaign. She might
have delivered speeches in Italian-accented Hindi and
English, but she has led the Congress to a victory that
nobody expected. The Congress party has emerged as the
single largest party in the elections.
As per
all-India trends available in 539 seats (of the 543
parliamentary constituencies, counting was not completed
in four constituencies - the election in Chhapra has
been countermanded following complaints of large-scale
rigging and the election commission is probing similar
allegations in the other constituencies) the Congress
and its allies are ahead in 222 seats and the BJP-led
alliance is leading in 189 constituencies, far short of
the 250-272 it was expected to notch up in the
elections. Other parties, including the Left (which will
support the Congress and which is ahead in over 60
constituencies) and smaller but influential parties like
the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, are
leading in about 128 seats.
Financial markets,
which had tumbled on fears that an unstable coalition
would be re-elected, on Thursday reversed early losses
as the size of the Congress win became clear. The
benchmark Sensex rose 41 points to close at 5,399.
When the BJP-led government announced elections
some months back, it did seem that the Congress did not
stand a chance of winning. The BJP's "India Shining"
campaign appeared to have struck a chord, especially
with urban India. Vajpayee's personality and stature
commanded support across classes, generations, castes,
religions and even political affiliations. This winning
combination - of veteran Vajpayee's leadership and the
promise of economic prosperity held out by the "India
Shining" slogan - was expected to propel the BJP back
into power.
That the going for the BJP-led
alliance was not that easy became evident by the second
phase of the four phases of voting that began three
weeks ago. The prospect of a hung parliament loomed
large. But even then, the BJP was expected to form the
core of the new government. The only uncertainty was
over how many seats it would have and which parties
outside its alliance would jump across to support it.
It was only on Tuesday, when results to assembly
elections in Andhra Pradesh were announced that the BJP
became truly jittery. The Andhra assembly election saw
the Telugu Desam Party, a major BJP ally - routed.
The Congress victory in the general elections is
a huge surprise. It has gained ground across the
country. The BJP has done well in states like Rajasthan,
Uttaranchal, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and
Punjab. Good news for the BJP in south India has come
only from Karnataka. It was looking to this
Congress-ruled state to break into southern India, and
has done so in this election. Its ally has been routed
in Andhra Pradesh and wiped out in Tamil Nadu.
The biggest surprise in the election has come
from Gujarat, the western Indian state that was witness
to ugly communal riots in February 2002. The BJP was
expected to sweep the state. After all, it swept to
power decimating the Congress in assembly elections in
December 2002. While the BJP is the party with the
largest number of seats in Gujarat, the Congress is a
close second. Nobody expected the Congress' fortunes in
Gujarat to be revived in this general election.
Throughout campaigning, Sonia Gandhi has pushed
for a secular India. Her two children, Rahul and
Priyanka, are up-and-coming politicians and Rahul
expects to be elected to parliament. The Gandhi dynasty
dominated Indian politics since independence from
British colonial rule in 1947. Jawaharlal Nehru, India's
first prime minister, headed the country from
independence until his 1964 death. He was followed by
his daughter, Indira Gandhi, who was killed by her own
bodyguards in 1984. Rajiv, her son and Sonia's husband,
took power and ruled until 1989. Two years later, he too
was assassinated.
The unexpected setback
suffered by the BJP-led alliance can be attributed to a
combination of factors. One was the anti-incumbency
vote. The past five years might have seen some of
India's cities shining, but ultimately that was not
enough to bring in the required votes. The Indian
farmer, who has suffered under BJP rule, has signaled
his discontent through the ballot box. Eighty percent of
India lives in villages, and the farmer has signaled
that his interests need to be protected too. The results
indicate that rural India cannot be taken for granted.
The angry rural voter has asserted himself not
only against the BJP but against the Congress too. The
poor performance of the Congress in the southern state
of Karnataka testifies to that. Prosperity was limited
to Bangalore, the capital of Karnataka and India's
"Silicon City", while much of rural Karnataka reeled
under severe drought for four continuous years.
The failure of the BJP and the Congress to
respond to local concerns negated every achievement they
made in the information technology (IT) sector, on
India-Pakistan issues etc. As Rajdeep Sardesai, noted
political analyst for NDTV observed, "Atalji [Vajpayee]
can proudly speak of making India a global economic
power and reaching out to Pakistan, but the voter in the
heart of eastern Uttar Pradesh and north Bihar wants to
know just why the health facilities in his area are
still primitive.
"Sonia Gandhi may speak grandly
of the Congress party eliminating unemployment across
the country, but the voter in rural Karnataka wants to
know why the Congress government failed to bring
drinking water to parched lands."
The defeat of
India's IT czars - the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh
and Karnataka in assembly elections - stands testimony
to the power of the rural voter. Chandrababu Naidu was
feted in the business dailies and praised by corporate
India for his IT miracle in Andhra. But the voters in
rural Andhra felt he had not done enough to prevent the
suicide of small farmers, and threw him out of
government for this. The Congress government in
Karnataka has faced a similar fate.
Another
factor that contributed to the Congress wresting power
from the BJP is the pre-poll alliances it entered into.
A late convert to coalition politics, the Congress
appears to have mastered the skill of putting
seat-sharing arrangements together. These arrangements
with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar, the
Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (DMK) and others in Tamil Nadu,
the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra,
have helped it coast to victory. In contrast, an
over-confident BJP - at one stage it seemed confident of
winning a majority without allies - neglected and even
dumped some of its old allies. In alliance formation, it
appears to have not read the writing on the wall.
Although the Congress and its allies are short
of a simple majority, with Left support they will easily
reach the magic number. The clout that "kingmakers" like
the Samajwadi Party and the Janata Dal (Secular) were
expected to wield in government formation has been
reduced. In fact, with voting trends indicating a
Congress victory, the Samajwadi Party appeared to be
warming up to the Congress on Thursday.
The
election has shown that Sonia's "foreign origin" is no
more an issue. The Indian voter found Gujarat chief
minister Narendra Modi's persistently offensive campaign
against Sonia distasteful. Besides, the voter has
indicated that he has more important issues to worry
about than the place of birth of his country's prime
minister.
Sonia Gandhi has proved herself as an
election campaigner. She has proved that like other
Indian politicians she can cobble together alliances and
shake hands with former enemies. She is very likely to
become India's next prime minister. The question now is
whether she can rule this country.
At 79 years
of age, Vajpayee's experience and personality were able
to hold together a number of parties in a coalition
government. Whether Sonia can provide the glue and hold
together her allies for the next five years remains to
be seen.
Another balancing act that the new
government has to do is with regard to responding to the
interests of corporate India and to the demands of its
allies in the Left for labor reforms. The Congress will
also have to respond positively to the unambiguous
signals that rural India has sent out in this election.
Sonia Gandhi's real battles might only have just begun.
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Congress, but whether Sonia is competent to rule India
for the next five years. 
