Sonia lays down her
legacy By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It is said that in politics a week
is a long time. In Indian politics, a couple of hours
can change a situation upside down. Such is the case
with Congress president Sonia Gandhi refusing to be
prime minister, a position that was for her taking, and
when the rest of the world had already declared her as
the premier in waiting.
Various explanations
have been flying thick and fast about the reasoning
behind her dramatic move, dictated, she said, by "my
inner voice, my conscience". Reasons cited include
outright cowardice and fear of being browbeaten by the
vitriolic campaign launched by the opposition Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) on the issue of her Italian origins,
Sonia's fear for the security of her family, and her
sense of grace and sacrifice.
While each of
these arguments might contain the grains of truth that
contributed to her final decision, there is one defining
aspect that seems to have been ignored - that over the
years the grind of politics has honed Sonia's political
acumen to levels that she understands what is best for
her, her family, as well as for the future of the
Congress that is so dear to her, given the association
with her husband Rajiv Gandhi, mother-in-law Indira
Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru, each one a prime minister
of the country. Sonia Gandhi is a consummate politician.
There is no doubt that the verdict of the people
of India is fractured. While there is an anti-BJP sweep,
it is not entirely pro-Congress either. As Sonia herself
said: "This is not a vote for me. This is an anti-BJP
vote ... the case would have been different if the
Congress-alliance had won 250 seats." In her statement
at the Congress parliamentary party meet on Tuesday, she
said: "The battle has been won, the war is yet to
begin." It is clear that Sonia has understood the risks
associated with leading a coalition with the added
burden of being Italian-born. It is not as if she has
chickened out, she has estimated that for the Congress
to emerge as the party with a majority of its own, her
refusal to be premier is the only way to this direction.
The following are the reasons:
First
, as head of a coalition government with parties
who fight the Congress at the state level, it is never going
to be an easy task to manage the various
interests. Even outgoing prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee,
given his stature and decades in politics, had his
hands full trying to contain the likes of Mamata Banerjee,
with just a few seats, who threw tantrums at will. Sonia
as premier would have had to face the hurdles to
economic reforms put up by the Left, the likes of Sharad
Pawar (Nationalist Congress Party) and Mulayam Singh
Yadav (Samajwadi Party), who have in the past criticized
her on her foreign origin. As in the case of any
coalition, each time her government faltered, it would
provide ammunition to the opposition to go for the
jugular and harp on the foreign origin issue. The
enemies are both within and outside. Not the most
palatable situation.
Second, by refusing
the top job this time round, she has raised her stature
in Indian politics to levels that cannot be matched by
any other existing leader, except Vajpayee. Indian
religious texts such as the Gita or the Ramayan bestow
the highest virtue to the spirit of sacrifice. By
refusing to be premier twice, the last time in 1992, she
has gained the high moral ground in the eyes of the
people. Even if she is not prime minister, there is no
doubt that she will be the final arbiter and the guiding
force within the party, as well as any Congress-led
government. All of this without appearing to be
power-hungry. Such a model is followed by Shiv Sena
chief Bal Thackeray in Maharashtra, where chief
ministers from his party have come and gone, but
Thackeray remains the only leader.
Third,
the opposition has been completely neutralized and has
maintained a stunned silence ever since Sonia refused to
be premier on Tuesday evening. This is in contrast to
the past few days when the BJP led a high-decibel smear
campaign against her - BJP leader Sushma Swaraj even
threatened to tonsure her head in protest against being
ruled by a person of foreign origin; the BJP chief
minister of Madhya Pradesh, Uma Bharti, sent in her
resignation to her party bosses. The behavior of these
leaders has as much to do with Sonia as a power struggle
that is likely to emerge within the BJP in the near
future. Vajpayee is nearly 80, and deputy prime minister
L K Advani is 78, and both are soon likely to cease to
be a force to be reckoned with, surely by 2009 when the
next elections are scheduled. Each of the second rung
leaders in the BJP, that includes Pramod Mahajan, Arun
Jaitley, Narender Modi, Rajnath Singh and Venkaiah Naidu
fancies their chance as premier, though none are a patch
on the electoral draw of a Vajpayee or a Sonia. With
Sonia, who is 57, out of the firing line, the BJP will
have to wait for the government to make mistakes, rather
than launching any further attack on the one issue that
unites them - her foreign origin (from the remote
village of Orbassano, near Turin, to be precise).
Fourth, it is likely that Sonia might
have decided never to be premier herself, but she wants
to pave the way for her children Rahul or Priyanka to
take over when the time is ripe. At the same time, by
leading the Congress campaign against the BJP, she has
put to rest any misgivings about her political
acceptability to the people of India. Rahul is 34, and
with Sonia not at the helm of affairs, will find it
easier to be appointed as a minister in the new
government. With experience over the next few years, he
could emerge as the undisputed leader of the Congress
under the guidance of Sonia. Congress members, who like
it best when they are led by a Gandhi, will have no
problem with such an accession. Rahul or Priyanka will
also have the umbrella of Sonia, who will be above
reproach, given her impeccable record of having beaten
the BJP, of being a Gandhi daughter-in-law, and of
having many years in politics learning from the masters.
Many politicians tend to think short-term. Sonia
is playing it long-term, like any mother, nurturing two
children and a political party. It is not without reason
that other members of her family have ruled the country
for over four decades since independence in 1947.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
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