India frets over Yangon-Pyongyang
deal By Arun Bhattacharjee
NEW DELHI - Nothing scares India more than the
prospect of another nuclear power on its border,
especially when that country is run by the military. So
Myanmar's evident success in wooing North Korea to help
it build a nuclear reactor has ruffled more than a few
feathers among bureaucrats in India's Foreign Office at
a time when a new foreign minister is trying to shape a
new foreign policy.
The bombshell that Myanmar
has succeeded in wooing North Korea to supply it with
nuclear-reactor technology came to the notice of Indian
intelligence in mid-May but remained under a wraps as
the country was involved in general elections.
According to sources within the country's
intelligence community, Myanmar's effort to purchase a
reactor was known to Russia, the United States and
China, as over the past four years the military junta in
Myanmar has approached India, Russia and China in its
quest, but failed to gain its objective. India refused
in 2000 on the grounds that Myanmar's energy needs were
being served by its petroleum resources, besides India's
concern that the US would not like India to supply a
nuclear reactor to country that was under US sanctions.
Diplomatic sources reveal that the Russian
refusal was more on economic grounds, as it felt that
Myanmar was not in a position to pay in hard currency
for the reactor. Myanmar initially wanted to pay 10
percent as an advance, but the Russians apparently
wanted 25 percent, US$200 million up front and another
$800 million later, part of which would meet the cost of
its engineers and technocrats who would be working to
set up the reactor. Myanmar's effort to purchase a
reactor from China did not succeed either as China is
under international scrutiny along with Pakistan for
proliferation of fissile materials.
Now it has
come to light that Myanmar is finally preparing to set
up a nuclear reactor at Natmauk in the Myothit area in
the central part of the country with help from North
Korea. India is concerned because of the North
Korea-Pakistan nexus regarding the
nuclear-delivery-capable Ghouri missiles built with
North Korean assistance, and doubly concerned to see
another neighbor, Myanmar, becoming nuclear, as any
material supplied by North Korea is unlikely to be under
supervision of the United Nations watchdog, the
International Atomic Energy Agency.
According to
Indian sources, Myanmar paid $2 million up front for a
survey by North Korean scientists and another $200
million partly in foreign currency and partly in the
form of timber. It has been learned that North Korea has
agreed to take payments in "affordable phases". The
total value of the contract is as yet unclear but India
believes the deal with North Korea would be far less
costly than if Myanmar had gotten the technological
assistance from another source.
A Western
diplomat says the deal was not without the knowledge of
US intelligence as all communications between Yangon and
Pyongyang for the past six months have been monitored by
the US, along with all Air Koryo flights between the two
countries, as North Korea's extreme caution to operate
Air Koryo flights from its military facilities instead
of civilian airports attracted US attention.
Myanmar's first request to North Korea for
nuclear-reactor technology was apparently made in
November 2002, but a memorandum of understanding could
not be signed then as Myanmar did not have enough funds.
A survey by a team sent by Pyongyang then identified
central Myanmar as the ideal location for the reactor.
The final agreement, according to informed sources, was
signed around January this year after Myanmar paid $2
million to North Korea in December for the preliminary
survey and Pyongyang agreed to supply the reactor on a
cash and barter basis.
India has always
maintained a soft approach toward the sanctions against
Myanmar, although it has made the necessary noise about
the restoration of democracy in Myanmar. It has received
three delegations from Myanmar for promotion of trade
between the two countries, and India's Oil and Natural
Gas Commission (Videsh) has received a concession for
offshore oil exploration within Myanmar's economic zone,
and is expecting more concessions.
One of the
reasons for estrangement between India and Myanmar has
been the latter's growing relationship with China after
the India-China border war in 1962. Myanmar has also
provided shelter to insurgents from India's northeastern
region, including Manipur, Mizoram and Nagaland, has
apparently been reluctant to intercept the alleged flow
of arms from China to insurgents in India through its
territory.
A Western diplomat explains that in
spite of the knowledge that Myanmar has nuclear
ambitions, the US is hamstrung as it is involved with
North Korea on far larger issues. Western embassies in
Yangon were aware of the presence of two representatives
of North Korea's economic bureau negotiating with
Myanmar leaders for a final agreement on the nuclear
deal, but failed to elicit any proper explanation from
the military authority beyond that the country "does not
have any ambition to have nuclear weapons". Myanmar's
senior leaders apparently clarified that they have
always worked for the peaceful use of nuclear energy and
for that they approached Russia in 2002 for a nuclear
reactor for "medical use".
Brajesh Mishra, a
former security adviser to Indian ex-prime minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee who dealt with China and Southeast Asia,
explains that India's concern about the deal involves
three possible threats. First, North Korea, while a
party to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, could use
Myanmar as a proxy for the development of nuclear
weapons. Second, India does not want another nuclear
nation along its eastern border while it already has one
on the north and another on the west. Third, an
impoverished Myanmar spending funds for nuclear
development is likely to be an unstable country, which
is not in India's interest.
Another concern,
says P R Chari, former director of the Institute of
Defense Studies and Analyses and a researcher in defense
affairs, is the location of the proposed reactor,
surrounded by territories controlled by insurgents in
Myanmar such as Wa, Kachin and Karens, who might decided
to procure fissile materials from the reactor.
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