WASHINGTON - US President George W Bush and
Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf are locked
in an embrace as partners in the "war on terrorism", and
each is becoming crucial to the survival of the other.
With Bush's approval ratings dipping ahead of
November's presidential elections, Musharraf is being
forced to deliver on two poll-lifting promises -
Pakistani troops for Iraq and a "high-value al-Qaeda
target". He is under pressure from Bush administration
heavyweights who have been streaming into Islamabad at
frequent intervals bearing gifts and lists of demands.
With the appointment of Pakistan's ambassador to
the United States, Ashraf Jehangir, as the new United
Nations special envoy to Iraq, the Bush administration
has delivered yet another sweet pill to coax Musharraf
along the path to sending troops to Iraq. The
appointment at once raised Pakistan's profile, helped in
its rehabilitation as a country slowly working with the
international community, and put in place a person who
will be more open to US concerns, wishes and exigencies.
The selection of Qazi capped a week of suspense
in UN corridors as diplomats waited in anticipation to
discover who would get the world's most visible and
dangerous diplomatic job. Well-informed sources said
Secretary General Kofi Annan was close to naming Salman
Haider, a former foreign secretary of India, whom he
personally knew and respected. He even called Haider to
Doha this month for a meeting. But once Annan began his
consultations with "major countries", the US State
Department weighed in favor of Qazi. US officials said
they had names of the contenders three weeks in advance
and they "knew" Qazi since he was serving in Washington.
Haider's independent streak and criticism of US Iraq
policy didn't help his case with the Americans.
UN observers expressed surprise at Qazi's
nomination, saying it sent the wrong signal to Iraq and
the rest of international community. The UN envoy to
Iraq has the delicate task of establishing democratic
rule, bridging the Shi'ite-Sunni divide, curbing
terrorism and overseeing reconstruction. Pakistan's
experience in all areas is minimal, and some say even
negative. The country is ruled by an army general, as it
has for most of its independent life since 1947, it is
regularly racked by Shi'ite-Sunni violence and it has
been a sanctuary for terrorists for the past decade,
pointed out a UN analyst. Many diplomats criticized the
heavy US hand in the UN process, even as Washington
slowly tries to distance itself from Iraqi politics.
But Qazi as the new special envoy will help
provide cover to Musharraf if he decides once again to
go against public opinion in Pakistan and sends troops
to Iraq. Bush appears determined to cash his chips with
Pakistan and call Musharraf on his promise made in June
last year after their meeting at Camp David. The US
president had announced a US$3 billion military and
economic aid package for Pakistan, and Musharraf for his
part had agreed "in principle" to send troops to Iraq
under a UN mandate and if a sovereign Iraqi government
made the request.
Last Friday, the United States
wrote off $495.3 million in debt that Islamabad owed
Washington, after earlier debt writeoffs totaling $1.5
billion. Bush has asked for $3 billion from Congress
over the next five years for Pakistan, of which at least
$1 billion will go toward improving macroeconomic
stability and investment in human capital, and
private-sector development in Pakistan. Another $500
million will fund ongoing programs of the US Agency for
International Development to improve education, health
and good governance. The remaining $1.5 billion is
earmarked for military support.
Now both of
Pakistan's conditions for sending troops to Iraq have
been met - the UN Security Council last month passed a
resolution recognizing the interim Iraqi government
hand-picked by the Americans as "sovereign" and the
Pakistani government has already received a letter from
Prime Minister Ayad Allawi requesting troops.
Although Musharraf had kept Allawi's letter a
secret, the fact was revealed by visiting US Deputy
Secretary of State Richard Armitage in an interview to
Geo TV in Pakistan last week. While denying he had
himself asked for Pakistani troops, Armitage said: "I
simply explained to the government our view of what's
going on, and our views of the situation there. Prime
Minister Allawi of Iraq has requested some assistance in
a letter to the government of Pakistan, so these are
decisions that the government of Pakistan is going to
have to make."
Pakistan was one of the strongest
supporters of the UN resolution, and its UN envoy, Munir
Akram, last month welcomed it as "the most significant
step since the first Gulf War" of 1991. The sequence of
events unfolding in New York, Washington and Islamabad
has the ring of a well-written script designed to boost
Bush's position, despite a war going desperately wrong.
Every commission of inquiry and assessment from the
special September 11 panel to the US Senate's own report
has declared Bush's reasons for the Iraq war false,
untenable or simply exaggerated. A fresh induction of
foreign troops - Pakistan being the last possible
supplier of a significant number of soldiers - can help
smear a modicum of success on a floundering venture.
Bush's eagerness to get new foreign troops to
Iraq is understandable in light of the "coalition of the
willing" fast becoming the coalition of the fleeing. The
Philippines, Thailand, Poland and New Zealand have
decided either to leave or drastically reduce their
presence after a rash of hostage-taking dramas enacted
on television by insurgents. The new Indian government
has ruled out sending troops to Iraq, but indicated its
willingness to be "helpful". Armitage, during a one-day
stop in New Delhi last week, discussed training for
Iraqi police, doctors, nurses and diplomats by India,
along the lines of what New Delhi is doing in
Afghanistan.
But it is Musharraf who is key as
Bush mounts his campaign for his re-election. A report
in the latest issue of The New Republic magazine says
the Bush administration has significantly increased its
pressure on Pakistan to kill or capture Osama bin Laden,
his deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the Taliban leader
Mullah Omar, who are all high-value targets (HVTs).
Intelligence reports say these most wanted men are
hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Pressure is also
coming from the US ambassador to Afghanistan, Zalmay
Khalilzad, who has publicly criticized Pakistan's
efforts in finding the terrorists as inadequate.
The report went on to add that White House
officials privately told the Pakistanis to deliver at
least one of the men soon, and announce the news at the
end of July in time for the Democratic National
Convention, apparently to take the media spotlight away
from the anointing of John Kerry as the official
Democratic nominee for president of the United States.
The magazine quoted a source in Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) as saying the
Pakistanis "have been told at every level that
apprehension or killing of HVTs before [the] election is
[an] absolute must". The source, who works under ISI's
director, Lieutenant-General Ehsan ul-Haq, told The New
Republic that Bush administration officials had told
their Pakistani counterparts they had a date in mind for
announcing this achievement: "The last 10 days of July
is a deadline that has been given repeatedly by visitors
to Islamabad and during [Haq's] meetings in Washington."
The White House has denied the report, which
created a stir in Washington as evidence that the Bush
administration was treating the "war on terrorism" as a
political ploy and waging it in a manner to suit the
electoral calendar. Pakistani diplomats say there is a
long history of their country being asked to bail out
the US, from the days of Henry Kissinger's famed secret
forays to China to the war against the Soviets in
Afghanistan to now, when the success of the current
president's chief election plank - his "war on
terrorism" - depends directly on whether Musharraf can
deliver something in time.
Asia Times Online has
reported that a large-scale Pakistani military operation
could begin any time soon in the tribal areas to catch
foreign elements. Two earlier operations this year
failed to land any names of note.
Recent polls
show that US voters are turning away from Bush as
someone they trust to handle the war. A majority of
Americans now think the war against Iraq has made them
less safe. Bush's overall job-approval rating declined
to 47%, the lowest since he took office, with 50% saying
they disapprove of the way in which he is doing his job.
Just four in 10 Americans gave the president positive
marks for his handling of Iraq, the lowest since he
launched the war in March 2003. A Washington Post-ABC
poll said 52% of Americans believe the Iraq war was not
worth fighting and 76% believed it had damaged the
standing of the US in the world.
Clearly, every
success, every loss, every spin will count between now
and November 2 when Bush faces the voters, and any help
he can receive from his "most trusted ally" in Pakistan
will be gratefully received.
Seema
Sirohi is a Washington-based correspondent.
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