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Pakistan backs off Balochistan
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Given the intense local backlash against Pakistan sending troops into the South Waziristan tribal area to find foreign militants, Islamabad has called off military operations in the troubled southwestern province of Balochistan, and will attempt instead to initiate dialogue with key leaders.

At the same time, while Pakistan has announced categorically that it will not send its troops to Iraq, backroom preparations are still being made for just such an eventuality.

In Balochistan, Pakistan's biggest but least-populated province, nationalist insurgents are conducting an ongoing campaign for more control over the area's vast natural-gas and mineral resources, as well as for increased political and economic rights. They also strongly oppose government plans to build three military cantonments in the province, saying that the government should allocate funds for development instead.

Over the past months there has been a series of rocket attacks and bombings in various Balochi cities and towns, mostly targeting natural-gas supply pipelines, but also on Quetta cantonment, and other strategic installations. Last weekend, gunmen attacked a government vehicle in the province, killing at least six people, including five soldiers, and wounding two, police reported.

Meanwhile, back in Waziristan
With the flow of information from South and North Waziristan agencies restricted by the army, Asia Times Online has learned from local contacts that insurgent tribesmen are still active, while the army is virtually restricted to its camps. But when they do emerge for patrols, they are attacked. Unconfirmed reports indicate between five and seven casualties from both sides every day.

On Thursday an army helicopter flying from its base in Rawalpindi to Bannu in North Waziristan crashed in the Karak area of the agency. The army's Inter-Services Public Relations said that the Mi-17 helicopter went down after developing a "technical fault", killing all 13 troops aboard. However, there is widespread speculation that the chopper had been shot down.

Operation Balochistan
Asia Times Online contacts close to the army say that the government will not go on the offensive in Balochistan in an attempt to by time by talking to tribal leaders.

It is generally believed that the present insurgency is spearheaded by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), an underground organization that traces its roots to the leftist Baloch Students Organization at Balochistan University during the Cold War era. In an attempt to counterbalance US influence and Pakistan, the former Soviet Union funded the BLA with money, arms and logistics. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, not much has been heard of the BLA.

However, after the collapse of the Taliban in Afghanistan at the end of 2001, when many of them fled to the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, the US thought it prudent to establish its own spy network to keep a check on the validity of the information it was being fed by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence. Anti-Taliban nationalist elements, whether Pashtun or Baloch, were thought to be the best tool for this.

It was not a surprise, therefore, that Baloch nationalist leader Sardar Attaullah Khan Mengal returned to Pakistan after a long exile in London, and soon several hundred youths were trained under the banner of the BLA. This was done at a base in Kohlu, near Dera Bugti in Balochistan. Unconfirmed reports suggest that the Afghan and Indian governments played a role in this. Apart from this group, powerful tribal chiefs, such as Nawab Akbar Bugti, Mengal and Nawab Khair Bux Mari incited their tribes to revolt against the Pakistan army.

According to Asia Times Online's sources the army believes that if it launched a major offensive it could crush the insurgents in Balochistan as the terrain is nowhere near as harsh as South Waziristan's. But it is reluctant to become involved on two fronts, and there is also the danger of a serious backlash, both on the province and beyond. Pakistan's political opposition parties are already making loud noises about stopping military intervention.

Instead, a number of local leaders have been arrested or warrants issued for their arrests. The aim is that while in captivity they can be persuaded to influence their followers to stop the unrest.

Still troubled over Iraq
With a Saudi proposal to raise a Muslim army to help with security in Iraq rejected by most Arab and Muslim countries, Pakistan has also officially announced that it will not send troops to Iraq.

However, Asia Times Online has learned that in the backrooms of General Headquarters (GHQ) preparations for sending troops are still under way.

Former Corps Commander Rawalpindi and presently military secretary in GHQ Rawalpindi, Lieutenant-General Arif Hasan has been assigned to work on different options:
  • Send a selection of servicemen from the army reserve corps.
  • Offer officers and soldiers who are on the verge of early retirement, and then send them as a separate unit, not as a part of the Pakistan army.
  • Raise a separate volunteer force comprising retired army officers and soldiers.

    In the meanwhile, a very limited number of the last group could be sent soon to guard United Nations premises in Iraq - Pakistani Jehangir Ashraf Qazi has been appointed as the new UN envoy to Iraq.

    (Copyright 2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for information on our sales and syndication policies.)


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