All change for Pakistan's new premier
By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Just weeks after surviving a suicide attack, Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz is due to be elected on Friday as Pakistan's 20th prime minister. His elevation promises to bring in a new era of rule by technocrats, at the expense of career politicians, whose demise will not go without a fight.

Interim premier Shujaat Hussain resigned on Thursday two months after assuming the job. Aziz was hand-picked by President General Pervez Musharraf after the sudden resignation of Zafarullah Khan Jamali in June. However, he could not take over the post immediately as he was not a member of the National Assembly. He has now won a by-election to rectify this situation.

Aziz's candidacy will be opposed by the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, which has agreed to  back imprisoned Pakistan Muslim League leader Javed Hashmi. Hashmi was sentenced to life imprisonment on charges of abetting a mutiny in the army by distributing an alleged letter with general headquarters insignia on it to members of the press last October.

As the government has a comfortable majority, though, Aziz's election should be a formality.

Political insiders say that Aziz has been given a free hand by Musharraf to choose his cabinet members, in consultation with Lieutenant-General Khalid Qudwai of the Strategic and Planning Division. Former US-based Citibank executive Aziz's overwhelming preference is expected to be for technocrats, although some politicians will be accommodated in the short term until the new technocrat-led government begins to function smoothly.

Under the new system, a policy framework will be developed in the capital Islamabad by technocrat ministers, and gradually the role of politicians in the lower house of parliament will be eroded as the country moves toward a presidential system of government similar to that in France.

This development will also favor Musharraf, whose long-term plans favor an all-powerful presidency with a weak - although efficent - premier.

Beginning of a new era
Strategically, Pakistan has been a key country in the region since it came into being on August 14, 1947, after being carved out of the British Raj. The basis of the division was the "two-nation" theory which demanded a separate state for the Muslims of the Indian sub-continent.

During the Cold War period, Pakistan, like many Third World countries, thrived on a diet of nationalism, but this impeded genuine progress. Further, all international relations and strategic policies revolved around the "two nation" theory. The feudal and traditional nature of society helped the rise of religious forces, while the US-sponsored Afghan jihad in the 1980s against the Soviets in Afghanistan further aggravated the situation, and fundamentalism took firm root.

Popular politics was in the hands of mainstream political parties such as the Pakistan People's Party, which still thrives on the legacy of the late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and his dynamism, and could have helped keep the rising fundamentalism at bay. Unfortunately, many politicians became embroiled in corruption scandals, including former premier Benazir Bhutto and her spouse, Asif Ali Zardari (wryly known as "Mr 10 Percent"), and this reduced their popularity. Similarly, another former premier, Nawaz Sharif, and his Pakistan Muslim League were affected.

The US role
The United States has long been concerned about these forces of fundamentalism in Pakistan, especially after Islamabad tested a nuclear bomb in 1998, to become the only nuclear power in the Muslim world, and especially at a time when the economy was a mess and unemployment and illiteracy remained high. In the intervening years not much has changed; radicalism has flourished, as has poverty. The breeding ground of discontent remains fertile.

Clearly, Pakistan needs a firm hand to guide the country along the path of progress if it is not to continue as a haven for fundamentalists of all hues. Washington would have made its views abundantly clear to Musharraf, a key ally in the "war on terror".

Now, Aziz is viewed as the man to do the job.

Aziz's importance first come to light in June 2003, when Musharraf was about to visit the US for an announcement by President George W Bush of a US$3 billion aid package for Pakistan, widely seen as a reward for Islamabad assisting in the "war on terror", especially with regard to the Taliban in Afghanistan.

But before Musharraf's visit, the US asked Pakistan to provide guarantees that it had frozen its nuclear program. Consequently, for the first time in the history of Pakistan, a finance minister, Aziz, visited the classified areas of Pakistan's nuclear facilities, along with technical staff. Previously, not even the elected prime ministers had been given such an honor. Aziz came up with the requisite guarantees, and the visit and the pledge for aid went ahead as scheduled.

Soon after Musharraf nominated Aziz as the next prime minister in June, the US House of Representatives approved the $3 billion aid package pledged last year. The five-year package is payable in annual instalments, with the first of $701 million payable for the next financial year. It is now awaiting Senate approval.

The next four instalments will be of about $600 million each, evenly divided between military and economic assistance. The economic side of the package deals with reforms in the education sector. These will concentrate on transforming the syllabuses of schools, as well as madrassas (seminaries), where Islamic fundamentalism often first takes root in young minds. The health and communication sectors will also receive assistance.

On the military side, the package deals with America's and Pakistan's joint need to upgrade the latter's capability to fight against terrorism, through updated communications, military hardware and other equipment needed to combat terror.

While Aziz's appointment makes sense for the development of Pakistan, in tune with US views, the biggest losers in the new setup - the politicians - are not likely to sit idly by. The forces of fundamentalism still exist - they just need tapping for a new "cause". The suicide attack on Aziz could be the first warning.

Syed Saleem Shahzadis bureau chief, Pakistan Asia Times Online. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.

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