Trying Vajpayee's shoes for
size By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - September 22 is going to be a very
important day in the history of India-Pakistan
relations. It will be the first official meeting between
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani
President General Pervez Musharraf, on the sidelines of
the United Nations General Assembly session in New York
that begins the next day.
Clearly the spotlight will
be on Manmohan and how he handles the situation. Musharraf
will undoubtedly be gauging a man whose honeymoon
period as new prime minister has ended - more than
100 days now - and is under increasing attack over his
handling of several domestic issues, such as inflation,
the breakdown of talks with Kashmir leaders, a security
crisis in the northeast, and tainted ministers holding
office.
Manmohan carries the burden of moving
forward on the platform that was set up by his
predecessor, Atal Bihari Vajpayee. There are already
murmurs of protest that the Vajpayee government, despite
its shortcomings in handling communal flare-ups, was on
the whole very good given its achievements in economic
reforms and India-Pakistan relations. Indeed, if there
was one standout success of the Vajpayee regime, it was
the progress achieved in bolstering relations between
the two countries. As Manmohan sets out to meet
Musharraf, he will be conscious of his difficult
predicament - if the peace process does not go off well
from here, he will forever hold a place in history as
the leader who destroyed the good work that Vajpayee
accomplished, even if no one knows where it would have
ultimately headed.
The easy part in improving
relations between the two countries has already been
achieved, though even this was a tough task, undertaken
at a time when the two countries were in a position of
near war over a period of two years. Diplomatic missions
have since been re-established, some communication and
transport links are in place, people-to-people contacts
have increased, sporting ties renewed, a nuclear pact
inked and trade synergies are being worked out. But the
two most difficult questions remain: Pakistan's
insistence on a solution to Jammu & Kashmir - even
if it involves self-determination and secession - and
India's problem with what it feels is Pakistani
complicity in promoting cross-border terrorism.
In the recent past, Musharraf threatened that
India and Pakistan must make progress on resolving the
dispute over Kashmir in the next few months or he would
withdraw from the peace process. India on the other hand
leaves no stone unturned to present to the international
community the terrorist training camps run by the
Pakistani army in the Pakistani portion of Kashmir.
So how should Manmohan move the peace process
forward? Over the past few months several commentators
have attempted to devise a future roadmap along which
relations can progress. The following is an attempt to
list a series of dos and don'ts to avoid the obvious
pitfalls and quagmires that can befall peace between the
two nations.
Any talk is better than no
talk The history of conflict between India and
Pakistan is long and cannot be brushed away in a matter
of months. There will be differences on both sides,
opinions steeped in years of diplomatic and military
warfare. No solution will emerge overnight, but it is
important to continue to talk even if no results emerge.
It has been a long and tortuous ride to today's
position, and that should not be allowed to slip away.
Both sides should approach talks as a beginning, not the
start of the end. There should be no going back.
Leap of faith There is plenty of
suspicion between the leadership of the two countries.
This is far less the case among the people of the two
nations, as abroad, Indians and Pakistanis are often the
best of friends. When they do meet either in India or
Pakistan, the bonhomie is infectious. This is to do with
the fact that in essence we are the same
people. Bollywood film stars and songs are a staple in
Pakistan, while Indians are enthralled by Pakistani singers
and TV soaps. If there have been doubts, they have been
at the highest levels of the establishment. Pakistan's
military has thrived on a bleed-India policy, and Indian
politicians often care more about votes earned by
spreading suspicions between Hindus and Muslims than
India-Pakistan relations. Both sides have to begin by
trusting each other, as no marriage can work without
faith. In this Manmohan and Musharraf play crucial
roles.
Big issues, other issues
There should be a clear demarcation of issues
that will require a drawn-out negotiation process and
those that can be implemented right away. Jammu &
Kashmir and cross-border terrorism are the bugbears that
will need the most thrashing out. Maybe there is
no immediate solution to the two problems, given
past prejudices, vested interests and political ramifications.
But this should not prevent solution-seeking in areas that
can be more easily handled at other levels
of negotiation. India has submitted a big list of such
matters (72, submitted during the recently concluded
meeting of foreign misters of the two countries)
that include confidence-building measures such as rail, road and
air links, health and economic cooperation, and an
oil pipeline that could set about a real ground-level relook
at relations, as both India and Pakistan stand to gain
substantial economic benefits.
The basis of
talks should be mutually beneficial, with both countries
on the same winning side. It is now realized that India
and Pakistan are fighting a common enemy - the jihadi
terrorist - even if it took a lot of prodding by the
United States and a couple of assassination attempts on
Musharraf to reach that understanding. At the same time,
the two nations aspire for higher economic growth
through increased trade. If the common aims are laid
out, the course can be well set.
Bad news is
not news No talks can be conducted through the
media. In the past, representatives of the two countries
have chosen to convey their points of view through
television, given its powerful impact. With a structural
interaction process in place, all points of discussion
should be tackled at the official level. There has been
plenty of media grandstanding in the past that has only
worsened matters. Rabble-rousers and publicity seekers
are always ready with their take on the subject of
talks. As talks progress, there will be lots of
exchanges that can generate bad news. There should be no
washing of dirty linen in the public fold as it only
vitiates an already vicious atmosphere. There will be
days of highs and lows that can distract from the
mission in hand. There will be pressure to wind up and
go home. The main enemy is the vast terrorist
infrastructure that will do its best to sabotage the
talks. Indians and Pakistanis will require a steely
determination to remain focused on the task at hand,
rather than be distracted by the potentially explosive
situation. This will be tough for India.
Vajpayee, Musharraf and Manmohan They
are the key players. Vajpayee - despite the fact that he
is no longer in power - remains a key figure. Manmohan
has done well by calling on him for advice. Vajpayee's
word has been: Don't take the beaten path. One is more
certain about Vajpayee's credentials - he is 80 years
old and has already declared that the January Islamabad
agreement was his third and last attempt at peace after
the failure of the Lahore and Agra efforts.
It
is more difficult to judge Musharraf, as his past has
been dubious and the domestic pressures from the
militant elements in the army and fundamentalist forces
within Pakistan are intense. If he can rise to the
occasion - with some help from the US - and fend off the
pressures, peace could still prevail. Manmohan is yet
untested on foreign affairs and one hopes that he passes
with flying colors.
Don't say 'Uncle
Sam' Everybody knows that the US has a role to
play, but nobody wants to admit it. One impression that
the leaders of the two countries do not want their
people to get is that the US is cajoling the process. It
is, but those are just the kind of words that nobody in
the two countries likes to hear. It's an occupational
hazard being big brother. Even the US needs to
understand this.
Playing ball
Both Pakistan and India are crazy about cricket.
A few months back, while everyone talked about
nuclear secrets being leaked for a price by Pakistani scientists
to the rest of the world, Pakistanis were
equally concerned about their ace bowler Wasim Akram providing
tips to Indian fast bowlers in Australia. The art of
reverse swing is clearly an equal trade secret. This
year, a cricket series between the two countries after
14 years dissipated all pent-up tensions. There has been an
emergence of true sportsman spirit, rather than fans
baying for each other even at neutral venues. This will
have to continue.
Siddharth Srivastava
is a New Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2004 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
