Turning over a new leaf in New
York By Praful Bidwai
NEW
DELHI - Before Pakistan's President General Pervez
Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met
last Friday in New York on the sidelines of the United
Nations General Assembly, no one could have forecast how
their first-ever talks would turn out. As it happened,
their scheduled 15-minute one-on-one meeting extended to
an hour.
The two men - who would have traded
hostile rhetoric had they followed the by-now-familiar
script - came out looking pleased. They effusively
declared the India-Pakistan dialogue "historic" and
their own discussions a successful "essay in mutual
comprehension". They sincerely vowed to carry forward
the dialogue.
By available indications, India
and Pakistan, who have fought a continuous hot-cold war
for 58 years with each other, will now launch the second
phase of their dialogue, which they agreed to start in
January, and which has proceeded in fits and starts so
far.
The joint declaration issued in New York
commits the two to implement the many
confidence-building measures (CBMs) that they have
discussed - while "keeping in mind practical
possibilities". It also says that "possible options for
a peaceful negotiated settlement of the [Kashmir] issue
should be explored in a sincere spirit and purposeful
manner".
But behind this cautious, modest
formulation is a good deal of understanding based on
behind-the-scenes consultations between senior
officials, including national security advisory chiefs
who reportedly held four "secret" meetings between them.
The Indian assessment is that Musharraf is
sincere about keeping his promise to stop supporting
jihadi militants active in Kashmir. As Manmohan put it,
he is someone "we can do business with".
Musharraf, too, believes that his Indian
counterpart "is very much interested in peace", and is
"an extremely sincere and straightforward man" who has
the desire to resolve disputes. The Pakistani president
says the Indians "have absolutely understood Pakistan's
viewpoint", and this is a major compliment.
This
new atmosphere of goodwill and trust is partly explained
by the successful preparatory talks at the level of high
officials and partly by the pressure of public opinion
in both countries, which favors reconciliation.
Also, the two governments responded positively
to expectations from the major powers - particularly the
United States - of a sub-continental detente.
A
significant part was also played by the personal
chemistry between the two leaders. Musharraf evidently
charmed Singh by carrying gifts, including a drawing of
the school Manmohan attended in a poor village near
Islamabad in undivided India.
Earlier, the
Pakistani leadership had developed a very special,
exclusive, affinity for former prime minister Atal
Bihari Vajpayee. Until a couple of weeks ago, it was
suspicious of the four-month-old Congress Party-led
United Progressive Alliance government of Manmohan. Now
it appears to have revised its stand.
Although
the two governments are still guarded about saying
anything on resolving their high-altitude military
conflict at Siachen Glacier, Pakistan is reported to
have told India that its troops would not try to occupy
the heights that Indian troops might vacate.
The
glacier, at a height of 20,000 feet or 6,000 meters-plus
above sea-level, has been the site of a bitter struggle
over boundary demarcation. The two countries spend
hundreds of millions of dollars a year on stationing
troops there. Many more soldiers have died at Siachen
from the cold than from (frequently traded) gunshots.
Even more significant are reports that the two
governments are close to resolving their differences
over starting a bus service between Srinagar and
Muzaffarabad, the capitals of the two divided parts of
Kashmir. The main disagreement pertains to the nature of
identification papers the passengers should carry. Until
recently, India insisted on personal passports, but
Pakistan fears that will weaken its claim to Kashmir. It
wants some other (essentially local) identity papers.
Now the two are believed to have come to a
compromise - passports are carried but not stamped. If
passports are not available, a local certificate of
residence would suffice. Whatever the solution, it is
important that the bus service starts running soon. That
could be a tremendously powerful CBM and will be
heartily welcomed on both sides of Kashmir.
On
another front, India and Pakistan are at an advanced
stage of negotiating an overland natural gas pipeline
from Iran to India that will be highly cost-effective
for energy imports. Pakistan stands to earn between
US$400 million and $1 billion a year as transit fees
from the project.
There is also a proposal for a
diesel pipeline from India to Pakistan (which imports a
good deal of that fuel from the Gulf, of which Indian
refineries in the far north have a surplus). The
pipelines assume a high level of security and mutual
confidence and an assurance that supplies will not be
interrupted if tensions break out - itself a major CBM.
Apart from canvassing support for the pipeline
project, New Delhi has also taken some welcome
unilateral steps by relaxing visa regulations for
Pakistani nationals. For the first time, Pakistanis can
visit India as tourists and restrictions such as
compulsory daily reporting to the police will be lifted.
And senior citizens will have privileged access to visas
and so will journalists - who will get multiple-entry
permits.
This move augurs well for the next
phase of the India-Pakistan dialogue. Yet, difficulties
remain. The biggest pertains to Kashmir, the vexed issue
on which Pakistan hinges its definition of nationhood,
and India says it is an "inalienable part" of itself.
Progress on Kashmir is likely to be slow. But it is
significant that both states have committed themselves
to begin discussing the issue "out of the box".
In New York, Manmohan asked Musharraf to spell
out alternatives to the idea that the existing Line of
Control should be converted into an international border
(the preferred Indian position). Musharraf said he would
get back to him on this. If some concrete proposals are
put on the table, the two governments can at least begin
to talk. Even if no agreement is reached
immediately, Pakistan will feel assured that India is
serious about discussing Kashmir for the first time in
decades. That, and the absence of strife and jihadi
violence in Kashmir, will itself be a big gain. Such
gains can defuse tension and lead to normalization of
relations, greater economic cooperation, and more
people-to-people contacts in the fraught sub-continent.
This will be a worthy outcome.
