Myanmar
power play leaves India
smiling By Sudha Ramachandran
BANGALORE - Even as New Delhi prepares to
welcome Myanmar's top general to India next week,
dramatic developments in Yangon might improve the mood
at this historic interaction. With the arrest of premier
Khin Nyunt, known to back China in the Sino-Indian
contest for influence in Myanmar, the balance is
believed to have tilted in India's favor.
Than
Shwe, head of the powerful State Peace and Development
Council - the junta that rules Myanmar - and also
commander-in-chief of its defense forces, will be the
first Myanmar head of state to visit India in 25 years.
New Delhi, which has been attempting to woo Myanmar's
generals in recent years, is preparing to roll out the
red carpet.
Only a couple of days ago, it seemed
India's bid to court Myanmar's top general was running
into rough weather. A three-day convention held in Delhi
over the weekend called for the restoration of democracy
in Myanmar. More than 100 leaders of various
pro-democracy and ethnic-minority groups from Myanmar, as well as
representatives of Western non-governmental
organizations dealing with Myanmar, participated in the
convention, which was incidentally convened by former
Indian defense minister George Fernandes. An embarrassed
Ministry of External Affairs rushed to get the
convention deferred, calling on Fernandes - a "friend"
of Myanmar's pro-democracy activists who was himself
part of a government that actively courted the junta -
to postpone the meet. When he refused, India denied the
"prime minister" of the coalition government of the
"Union of Burma", Sein Win, a visa to attend the
seminar.
The gloom the Delhi convention cast
over India's proposed overtures to General Than Shwe has
now been lifted somewhat by the dramatic ouster of
pro-China Khin Nyunt. Khin Nyunt incidentally was also
close to Pakistan. With Khin Nyunt now out in the cold,
Delhi just might be able to breathe easier.
Neutralizing China's significant influence in
Myanmar has been a key concern that has driven and
determined India's policy in recent years. India has
traditionally backed pro-democracy movements in its
neighborhood, and this was the case with Myanmar as
well. When the military junta ignored the verdict of the
1991 general election in which the National League for
Democracy (NLD) won a landslide majority, India was
among the most vociferous of the countries demanding
that the junta respect the verdict. It extended moral
support and more - Myanmar's pro-democracy activists
were provided sanctuary on Indian soil, the
government-controlled All India Radio broadcast
pro-democracy propaganda - to the struggle for democracy
led by NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi was even
honored with the Jawaharlal Nehru Award for
International Understanding in 1995.
India's
policy toward Myanmar was based in part on a principled
position to give its support to pro-democracy struggles
in the region. It was also based on historic ties
between India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru,
and Myanmar's independence hero, Aung San (Suu Kyi's
father). There were emotional links as well - Suu Kyi
acquired her university education in Delhi.
But
India slowly woke up to the fact that a policy toward
Myanmar based on emotions and principles was not serving
India's security interests. While India was backing the
democratic movement, China had been backing the generals
since the late 1980s. Unlike the rest of the world,
which had condemned the military for its brutal
crackdown in 1988, China remained silent. And when the
rest of the world refused to do business with Myanmar in
a bid to pressure the junta to restore democracy in the
country, China extended a supportive hand by engaging in
diverse forms of cooperation, including the sale and
supply of military equipment, trade in consumer goods,
building Myanmar's infrastructure and so on.
China's rising profile in Myanmar was seen in
Delhi as a direct threat to Indian security interests.
Most worrying for India was the growing Chinese naval
presence in the Bay of Bengal. Indian intelligence
agencies have repeatedly drawn attention to the
Chinese-built radar facility on Myanmar's Coco Islands
(near India's Andaman and Nicobar Islands), which is
reportedly serving as a listening post for Beijing on
India's missile-testing facilities situated on its east
coast.
But there were other reasons for India's
decision to improve ties with Myanmar's military junta.
The raging insurgency in the Indian northeast that
borders Myanmar was an important factor. Many of the
insurgents have set up camps and training facilities
across the border in Myanmar. Tackling the insurgency
required a crackdown on their sanctuaries in Myanmar.
And this, India realized, was not possible without the
help of Myanmar's generals.
There was also the
problem of the narcotics said to be flowing from the
Golden Triangle through Thailand and Myanmar into India.
Cooperation with Myanmar was essential to crack down on
this issue as well.
India's economic
interests, too, figured in the calculated move to court the
junta. India's "Look East" policy, adopted in the
mid-1990s, was an important reason Myanmar emerged as a country
with which India wanted to do business. For India, the
road to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ran
through Myanmar. Besides, the construction of roads and
railway lines through Myanmar to Thailand and beyond was
seen as essential to step up trade with Southeast Asian
countries. This land link through Myanmar and the
prosperity the trade would bring were viewed in Delhi as
the best way to bring the poverty-stricken,
insurgency-ridden northeastern states out of their
isolation.
These calculations all contributed to
India's decision to tone down its anti-junta position
in Myanmar. Initially this decision resulted in India
softening its rhetoric against the junta. By the end
of the 1990s that had changed to an active courting of
the generals. Today, India calls for "reconciliation" in
Myanmar and simultaneously does business with the
generals.
But dealing with the generals
has not been an easy game. Given the bitter
power struggle within the senior ranks, India's interaction
with the junta meant that it, too, would be sucked into
the power game. With Khin Nyunt backing China, it was
only natural that his main rival Maung Aye, the
second-most-powerful man in Myanmar, warmed up to India. It is said
that Maung Aye was concerned with Myanmar's excessive
dependence on China and used this issue to undercut Khin
Nyunt's influence by being more responsive to India.
It is against this background that Than
Shwe will be given a red-carpet welcome in New Delhi.
Top-most on India's agenda is the issue of dismantling
camps set up by northeastern insurgents in Myanmar. This
has gained urgency, especially after the series of
blasts that rocked the states of Assam and Nagaland in
recent months.
According to a report in Indian
Express, four hotlines exist between the armies of the
two countries, the highest at the level of Corps
Commander in the areas along the India-Myanmar border.
Citing official sources, the report says that
reactivation of these lines could be the first step
towards developing a more coordinated approach in
fighting the insurgency.
"Operational options
that have been mooted so far at different levels include
simultaneous flushing out of insurgents from either side
and then trapping them along the border. There is also a
view that the border be patrolled jointly and a combined
operation launched only after completing the
groundwork." The report goes on to say that while both
sides have agreed to cooperate in tackling the
insurgents, there are hurdles in implementing joint
action on the ground.
India has Maung Aye to
thank for Myanmar's cooperation in fighting the
northeast insurgency. And during meetings with Than
Shwe, Delhi will seek to move the shared intention with
regard to fighting insurgency to concrete action on the
ground. With Khin Nyunt checkmated, it is likely that
Maung Aye will succeed the aging and reportedly ailing
Than Shwe. And that would come as good news for Delhi.
India's heart might beat for Suu Kyi, but its
head has led it to court the generals in Myanmar in
recent years. And that appears to have paid off - at
least for now.
Sudha Ramachandran is
an independent researcher/writer based in Bangalore,
India. She has a doctoral degree from the School of
International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University in
New Delhi. Her areas of interest include terrorism,
conflict zones and gender and conflict. Formerly an
assistant editor at Deccan Herald (Bangalore) she now
teaches at the Asian College of Journalism, Chennai.
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