Indians take a gamble on US
elections By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Every four years, elections in the
United States arouse plenty of interest around the
world, but never before has the contest generated the
passion it has this time around, given the global
consequences of the Bush administration's "war on
terror". A lively debate has ensued in the Indian media
about the feasibility - as well as the necessity - of
each person on the globe having the right to elect the
US president, given how inter-linked matters related to
security and economic welfare are to the most powerful
man in the world.
In India, one indicator of
just how strongly its citizens feel about a particular
issue is reflected in what is termed locally as the
"satta market". This is public gambling that
takes place on the sly, as it has been banned by the
government. However, satta remains one of the most
organized gaming forums in India, and is carried out
behind the backs of the law enforcers, where millions
of dollars change hands. The means have become high-tech
with the help of computers, cell phones and the
Internet, with top underworld dons such as Dawood
Ibrahim and others from Mumbai heavily involved in the
trade. Traditionally, satta is at its busiest in
India during cricket matches, where bets are placed on
every aspect of the game: which team will win, whether a
batsman will score a century, who will win the toss,
whether a wicket will fall on the first ball, etc. Such
is the size of the industry that there have been
allegations - as well as confessions by top cricketers -
of players having been paid huge amounts to cater to the
dictates of a bet.
Predictably, satta
, where the odds are sometimes as frenzied as the
stock market, is currently focused on the John Kerry-George
W Bush clash. "In the past, we have had bets placed on
the weather [when it is going to rain during the
countdown to the arrival of the monsoon], politics [which
party will win, who will be chief minister/prime
minister]. This is perhaps the first time that the results of
such a far-off land are going to impinge on the local
satta," said one satta operator who
boasts of several prominent clients from Delhi.
Many believe that the satta market
is the correct indicator, better than any opinion poll,
of the odds for or against a situation, given that
people are actually making or losing money in the
process. Sources say the sustained climb that Kerry has
witnessed among US voters in the past few weeks had made
the process dull, as there was an equal chance of
either candidate winning. It is only when there are heavy
odds for or against a particular bet that money
really changes hands.For instance, the latest TV act by
Osama bin Laden - a videotape of the the al-Qaeda leader
aired Friday, depicting him as healthy and well - has
injected the Bush-Kerry satta with new vigor,
as many now believe that Bush has nudged ahead. Any
counter-bet (Kerry will win or Bush will lose) has the
potential of delivering good returns if it does happen.
Indeed, it is not just the satta market
that has been influenced by the US elections. Most
newspapers are running detailed analyses of who would be
a better president to promote India's interests. The
supplements focus more on the families, the pretty
daughters who make good pictures and the Jay Leno/Conan
O' Brian-type jokes on Kerry/Bush that abound.
Meanwhile, an alarmist piece in a prominent British
newspaper calling for the assassination of Bush has
evoked several reactions here too.
There are
factors that lead many Indians to favor Bush: he is
considered to be pro-outsourcing - a business facet that
affects people here - is less likely to harp on India's
nuclear proliferation regime and he enjoys good
inter-personal relations with the Indian establishment.
The negative is his cowboy act in Iraq that has sent the
"war on terror" into a tizzy. Meanwhile, analysts here
do not favor Kerry on most issues - he is considered to
be tough on outsourcing and less likely to go easy on
India for the supply of dual-use high-technology
material for peaceful use. However, the plus is the fact
that he will no doubt be more careful about unilaterally
attacking a country, at the very least to prove his
credentials as different from those of Bush.
Of course, all of this comment took place prior to
the bin Laden factor emerging once again, with
pictures showing that he is quite well, hearty and well fed
- many believe possible only if he is holed up
somewhere in Pakistan under the aegis of the state.
This would completely twist the way India perceives
its neighbor given the constant attention that India seeks
from the US in curbing cross-border terrorism
promoted by Pakistan. There are already reports in the
media that Indian intelligence sources who keep an eye
on Pakistan have sighted bin Laden in eastern Pakistan,
a reference to the Pakistan portion of Kashmir that India
says has been illegally occupied. But
Indian intelligence agencies are quite notorious for planting stories
in the media to suit their interests and the timing
of the current report seems as such. However, nobody
can doubt that bin Laden is leading quite a
comfortable existence away from the harsh caves and mountains
of Afghanistan, given his healthy and filled-out visage on TV.
Indeed, in such a scenario, Bush with his tough-guy approach may
be more suitable, though some believe that Kerry is
likely to give Pakistani President General Pervez
Musharraf a more difficult time.
In the
meanwhile, as the countdown happens, others have joined
the US election bandwagon apart from the satta
operators. Prominent hotels and pubs have set up huge
screens for people to tune in to election discussions
before and after the results are determined. There are
impromptu opinion polls pegged to the number of
specially named "Kerry Chicken" or "Bush Chicken" orders
that are placed. At the end of the designated hour Kerry
or Bush is declared the winner based on the chicken
count. "Such preparations are made for customers around
the New Year or an important cricket match. This is a
first for a US elections," said a manager of the Bristol
hotel in Gurgaon, which had its pub decorated for the
occasion.
As one Indian remarked, "We are
getting ready for the election of the US president of
the world and I do not want to miss the action."
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
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