NEW DELHI - Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
has announced that troops will be reduced in the
embattled Indian portion of Kashmir. This is perhaps the
first time that an Indian government has ordered the
reduction of troops in Kashmir since the anti-India
insurgency took root in the valley in 1989.
Though no details of the cut - actual numbers,
logistics and deployment - were announced, the decision
endorsed by the cabinet committee of security is seen as
a major step forward in meeting with popular sentiments
in Indian Kashmir. Manmohan is scheduled to visit
Kashmir from November 17-18, his first trip to the
region since taking over as prime minister earlier in
the year. Over 500,000 Indian troops out of an army of
1.13 million are deployed in Jammu & Kashmir.
According to a statement issued by the foreign
ministry, quoting Manmohan, "The decision to cut the
troops is due to an improvement in the situation in the
state ... effective counter-infiltration measures and
mobilizing the support of the people in the war against
terrorism ... this is reflected in the increased tempo
of economic activity, continuing increase in tourist
arrivals and a general sense of security among the
people." Lest it give any indication of softness,
Manmohan's statement also warned that "if the levels of
infiltration and terrorist violence increase, more
troops as necessary will be re-deployed".
Pakistan has welcomed the troop reduction by
India. The Pakistan foreign office said that it is a
wise decision: "We think the decision on the eve of Id
[end of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on Monday] will
have a salutary impact on Kashmir." Pakistan Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz, who is expected in New Delhi
later in the month for a meeting with Manmohan, has also
welcomed the announcement.
In October last year
India unilaterally announced a ceasefire along the Line
of Control (LoC) that separates the Indian and
Pakistani-administered sections of Kashmir. This still
holds. Domestic opinion that include the Hurriyat (a
conglomerate of separatist parties in Kashmir), except
for the lone hardliner Syed Gilani, and the chief
minister of Indian Kashmir, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, have
welcomed the initiative. Sayeed has called it the
biggest confidence-building measure for the people of
Kashmir.
Indeed, Asia Times Online has learnt
that one of the main reasons for the reduction in troops
- which was in discussion in government for over a month
- has been a dip in infiltration, the one main barometer
that India utilizes to gauge Pakistan's complicity in
promoting cross-border terrorism. The lower
infiltration, however, is not because India feels that
Pakistan has had a change of heart and dismantled the
terrorist infrastructure in its territory, but due to
effective measures taken by security forces in Indian
Kashmir. The move can be seen as quite a clever one by
Manmohan as it effectively kills two birds with one
stone.
Firstly, it assuages the hurt of the
people of Kashmir who have been feeling particularly
undone over the past week due to angry protests over the
alleged rape of a woman and her minor daughter by an
army major, who has since been suspended. Talks between
Delhi, led by home minister Shivraj Patil, and the
moderate Hurriyat have reached a deadlock, with a
statement by the home ministry against the Hurriyat
creating considerable resentment.
Secondly,
infiltration in any case subsides considerably during
the winter months due to heavy snowfall. Further,
effective counter insurgency measures including the
fencing of the LoC have been successfully implemented.
Army sources aver to the fact that there has been a 21%
decline in terrorist incidents in the past nine months
ever since sophisticated surveillance equipment was
installed along the border to check infiltration. The
number of terrorists holed up in the valley is also
estimated to be down from 3,500 to 2,000. The initial
reduction of troops will probably be in the hinterland,
while the army deployment along the LoC is likely to
remain the same. According to a former army chief, V P
Malik, the reduction in troops is a win-win situation
both militarily and politically as infiltration during
this time is at a minimum and the people of Kashmir are
particularly sour over the rape affair and required a
big gesture to ease their feelings.
In the
context of India-Pakistan relations as well as the
constant eye that the US likes to keep in the region,
the announcement by India comes after the recent
Pakistan visit of US Deputy Secretary of State Richard
Armitage, who appreciated Pakistan President General
Pervez Musharraf's "interesting" proposals on the entire
Indian and Pakistan Kashmir region.
Musharraf
stated that the whole region could be divided into seven
demilitarized autonomous zones under joint control of
India and Pakistan or the United Nations. India has been
cold in responding to Musharraf's proposals that seek
division based on ethnic and religious majorities, the
very basis of Pakistan's two-nation theory that Hindu
and Muslim regions, such as Kashmir, cannot co-exist.
Manmohan dismissed Musharraf's proposals as an "off the
cuff remark" while the Indian foreign ministry said that
such ideas should be discussed in an official forum
rather than the media. Ever since, Pakistan has been
blaming India for "inaction" in solving the Kashmir
issue and the following statements by Armitage have not
gone down too well with the establishment here.
Indeed, the latest unilateral announcement by
Manmohan can be seen as an attempt by the prime minister
to reach out to the people of Kashmir, the international
community, as well as Pakistan, that he is serious about
addressing the concerns and walk the extra mile, in the
mould of former Indian premier Atal Bihari Vajpayee.
The announcement also effectively scotches any
thought that Manmohan does not control the reins of his
government, reigned in by coalition partners (read left
parties) as well as fellow Congressmen owing allegiance
to Congress Party president Sonia Gandhi. Manmohan
recently exhorted his ministers and officials to think
"out of box" to move matters of policy and
implementation forward. He is leading the way.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright 2004 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact content@atimes.com for
information on our sales and syndication policies.)
