Productivity
- the key to India's growth
By Kunal Kumar Kundu
MUMBAI - Sustainable economic growth is about raising productivity. Labor is
one resource that India has in great abundance. In fact, virtually an entire
Australian population is added each year to that of India's. Unfortunately,
however, that population lives for the most part in absolute poverty. A recent
International Labor Organization (ILO) study estimated that half of the world's
working population lives on less than US$2 per day and a large number of them
are in India.
What explains the massive difference in income among various countries? Nobel
laureate Edward Prescott and Stephen Parente in Barriers to Riches argue
that massive income differences between developed and developing nations are
explained by the differences in total factor productivity (TFP). Differences in
TFP occur because of barriers to efficient use of technology which protect
certain interests. These differences in TFP are consequences of the differences
in knowledge individual societies apply to production of goods and services.
Once these barriers are removed, the whole world would be equally rich, argued
Prescott and Parente.
Admittedly, knowledge of technology is important, but poor countries do not
need to create new ideas for the production of goods and services. They only
need to apply the existing ones. However, it is the policy barriers that
prevent adoption and efficient use of technology, leading to differences in
TFP. Even relatively small differences in TFP of just one-third can lead to
changes in the gross domestic product (GDP) of the order of more than
one-twentieth.
Importance of
productivity
Savings rate & its
relation to productivity as opposed to TFP and its
relation to GDP
Savings rate
as fraction of GDP
Relative
income level
Relative
TFP
Relative
GDP
0.1
0.79
1
1
0.2
1
0.5
0.13
0.3
1.15
0.33
0.03
0.4
1.26
-
-
Source: Barriers to Riches, Prescott & Parente, MIT Press
According to a McKinsey report, per capita GDP is widely regarded as the best
single measure of economic well-being. That measure is simply labor
productivity (how many goods and services a given number of workers can
produce) multiplied by the proportion of the population that works. This
proportion varies around the world though, interestingly, not by much.
Productivity, however, varies enormously and explains virtually all of the
differences in per capita GDP.
Source: McKinsey
The Indian economy experienced jobless growth in the 1980s and the 1990s.
Employment - in the organized sector only - numbered around 28 million people
in the beginning of the 1990s and possibly stands at about 27 million now. Of
this, as many as 20 million are in government and public sectors. So what
explains the stagnation of employment in the organized sector?
It is the path of development that India followed after independence. Socialist
employment laws and enforcement structures ensured that employment was not
created in the over-regulated organized sector, but in the unorganized or
informal sector. Though comprehensive data on the unorganized sector is not
available, the report on the informal sector by the National Sample Survey
Organization for 1999-2000 reveals that employment in the unorganized sector
totaled about 80 million. Of these, 30 million were in manufacturing and 28
million in trading and repair. Next year's report pegged the number of
employees in the unorganized manufacturing sector at 37 million - 7 million
more than in 1999-2000. In all probability, at least 100 million Indians are
employed in the informal sector by now.
The estimated value-addition by the unorganized sector as per the survey of
1999-2000 works out to little over 11% of the country's GDP in that year. Even
if we consider this figure to be about 20% (assuming the estimate to be
understated), this still means that 80 million people in the unorganized sector
produced 20% of GDP, while the organized sector (with 27 million employees)
produced 60% of GDP in that year, with agriculture accounting for the balance
at 20%. Clearly, the per capita value-addition by the unorganized sector is a
fraction of the value added by the organized sector, indicating a substantial
difference in productivity in the two sectors.
Economic progress depends on increasing productivity, which in turn depends on
undistorted competition. When government policies limit competition, even
unintentionally, more efficient companies can't replace less efficient ones.
Economic growth slows and the country remains poor. A study of the trend in the
TFP growth in India is quite a revelation. Protection from international
competition had a depressing effect on TFP growth in India during 1960-70. The
TFP environment, however, has seen changes in the past 20 years. Since the
early 1980s, India has carried out some degree of reforms and liberalization.
This process was accelerated during the 1990s. Consequently, certain
restrictive regulations that had earlier suppressed efficiency disappeared or
were diluted significantly. Foreign technologies and efficient practices began
to trickle in and the removal of import barriers and entry restrictions after
1991 unleashed competitive forces. The disappearance of government protection
and the reality of foreign competition forced Indian entrepreneurs to seek
urgent measures for cost-effectiveness. The years since the early 1980s have
also produced faster average growth, a clear indication of invigorated TFP
forces.
Source: Survey report on Total
Factor Productivity Growth, 2001-02, Asian Productivity Organization Note:
Without adjustment in capital stock for capacity utilization.
[1]
The choice of periods for computing the averages takes
into consideration the unique economic and political
conditions prevailing in the Indian economy in the
respective periods. For example, the periods 1976-77 to
1979-80 and 1989-90 to 1991-92 had political and
economic disturbances and uncertainties, whereas 1980-81
to 1988-89 and 1992-93 to 1996-97 were periods of reform
and more rapid industrial and economic growth. The able
shows that the annual average of TFP growth rates
exceeded 2% in both the 1980-81 to 1988-89 and 1992-93
to 2000-01 periods, which were reform periods.
The development of the Indian automotive sector over the years is a case in
point. Twenty years ago, two monopolistic carmakers - Hindustan Motors and
Premier Automobiles Limited (PAL) - dominated the market and offered a handful
of outdated models. In 1983, the government allowed Suzuki Motor to take a
minority stake in a joint venture with small state-owned automaker, Maruti
Udyog. In 1992, nine more foreign automakers were allowed to invest in India.
This infusion of new capital and technology created serious competition for the
two erstwhile leaders, eventually forcing PAL out. The industry, one of the
fastest growing in the world, now produces 13 times more cars than it did 20
years ago. Tata Motors hit a milestone in 2004 by exporting 20,000 cars to the
United Kingdom, to be sold under the MG Rover brand. Total Indian automotive
exports during the first eight months of the current financial year have
already crossed 100,000 (the total number achieved last fiscal). Meanwhile,
prices for Indian consumers have fallen by 8-10% annually, unleashing a burst
of demand and allowing steady employment despite rapidly rising productivity.
Along with the assemblers, successful component manufacturers and suppliers
have come into being, enriching the industry even further.
Clearly, productivity is the key. At times, though, it might seem
counter-intuitive as it can be argued that productivity would reduce
employment. The fact is that the US is the most productive nation, but it does
not have substantial unemployment. While unemployment rates in most nations are
almost similar and ranges from 4-12%, it is the productivity difference that
really makes the difference between national incomes.
Productivity is impacted by policies that distort competition. Why then are
such policies so pervasive? For one, most governments favor the social
objectives that inspire high minimum wages and lay-off hurdles. They may not be
aware of the unintended adverse consequences that create major barriers to
growth. Instead of attempting to achieve social objectives by limiting
competition, countries should allow fair competition and thereby generate more
national income, which can then be redistributed through taxes and government
subsidies for the poor. Countries that follow bad competition policies also
help the business elite. In developing countries today, every domestic firm is
a potential special interest that stands to lose from more competition. These
unproductive firms' workers often think, mistakenly, that they too stand to
lose in the face of competition. To have healthy economies, countries must
allow unsuccessful owners and managers to fail so that more productive ones can
take their place. In healthier economies, workers will find a better job
market.
Take India's textile mills for example, which were done in by protectionist
public policies. The Indian government has directly limited competition by
insisting that several hundred consumer goods can be manufactured only in
small-scale plants. As a result, Indian consumers pay higher prices than they
should, and India, unlike China, hasn't been able to emerge as a global center
of low-cost manufacturing. China, in fact, exports to India. Moreover, in
housing construction, competition among developers and construction firms is
based not on cost and productivity advantages but on gaining control of scarce
parcels of land with clear ownership titles.
A decade ago, both India and China were poised on the brink of new prosperity.
But while Chinese per capita GDP soared at the end of the 20th century, India
stagnated, posting only 40% of China's growth - a clear indication of India's
antiquated business policies and inadequate business environment that continue
to stifle competition even now. According to a World Bank report on the
Business Environment in 2004, it takes an average of 11 procedures and 89 days
to start a business in India, compared with the regional average of 9 and 26
and the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) average
of 6 and 25. For registering properties in India, it takes 6 procedures and 67
days as against the regional average of 5 and 55 and OECD average of 4 and 34.
Enforceability of contracts is another major area of concern. The number of
procedures counted from the moment the plaintiff files a lawsuit until actual
payment is 40 in India and it takes 425 days for the same. The regional average
is only 29 and 349 while the OECD average is even less at 19 and 229.
The 2001 McKinsey report proclaimed that India could grow at 10% if it focused
on removing policy barriers to allow adoption of best technologies and
processes to allow the increase of TFP and the growth rate. The report
recommended removing licensing and quasi-licensing restrictions like
reservations for small sectors, eliminating ambiguities in real estate,
privatizing government companies and reforming labor laws. Dismantling barriers
to economic growth may be difficult, as the short-term effect of transition can
be painful, but keeping in mind the long-term benefits, that's a small price to
pay.
Kunal Kumar Kundu is a senior economist with a leading bilateral Chamber
of Commerce in India. He has a Masters in Economics with specialization in
econometrics from the University of Calcutta.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please contact us
for information on
sales, syndication and
republishing.)