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Power play in tsunami's
wake
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Tragedy notwithstanding, the
tsunami strike has witnessed nations flexing their
presence to provide relief to the victims, but
behind it all a power game is also being played
over who calls the shots and retains influence in
the Indian Ocean region, and by default the rest
of Asia.
In the cauldron are the two Asian giants
of China and India, the latter having refused
international aid as it is a donor nation as
well as a victim, a move seen by many Western commentators
as churlish. India wants the United States to
retain its pre-eminence in the region to preempt
China, while China is apprehensive of Japan
rearming itself should the US withdraw its troops
from the region.
Both India and China face
neighbors that they consider problematic. India
has Pakistan, while China has Japan to deal with.
As matters have evolved, a status quo has emerged,
with most nations abiding by the primacy of the US
in continuing to play the pivotal role in the
region. China raised the level of its involvement
in the tragedy as the situation developed, with
Japan and India upping their stakes. At the same
time, experts say that India and China want to
continue with their military entente, with India's
army chief visiting the country, to keep the US at
a distance.
As things stand,
the United Nations is going to coordinate further
aid efforts for the more than 5 million affected people
in 13 countries, as made apparent at
the one-day emergency meeting of world leaders of
26 nations and international organizations in Jakarta on
Thursday - they pledged US$3.7 billion in
immediate help. The US, in contrast to its stand
on Iraq, lined up along with other countries
behind UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, with US
Secretary of State Colin Powell announcing in
Jakarta the disbanding of the core group of
nations (Australia, India, Japan, Canada and the
Netherlands, apart from the US) set up initially
to manage the crisis.
Though it may seem
that all has ended well for now, the events of the
past few days have revealed the underbelly of the
subtle geopolitics of the region. It was not lost
on observers that Annan repeatedly had to allay
fears in Jakarta that military assets being
deployed in the affected areas might remain after
the crisis is over.
Ocean of
trouble
Over the years, both China and
India have given up their demand for US troop
withdrawal from Asia. Beijing is aware that if US
troops pull out, a threatened Japan could rearm
itself. The reasoning is not very different in New
Delhi, which has given up the 1970s slogan of
"Indian Ocean as a zone of peace" that focused on
US forces in the region being withdrawn. New
Delhi knows that if the US military leaves East
Asia and the Persian Gulf, someone else will move
to fill the power vacuum, and that someone is more
than likely to be China.
Indeed, Powell, known for taking a moral stance on
issues, pulled up nations, saying that the quantum of
aid for tsunami victims was not an auction
between countries. Unfortunately, this is what it has
turned out to be. The US upped its initial pledge
of a mere $35 million to $350 million in the face
of criticism that the initial amount was less than
the budget for President George W Bush's
re-election campaign.
China increased the amount
similarly, raising its initial commitment of $20 million by an extra
$40 million. It has not gone unnoticed either
that India had chosen to join the core group
of donor nations that included the US and its
major Asian allies Australia and Japan, despite being a
victim of the tragedy. The initial message
from Beijing was that China was still a developing country. But
with the setting up of the core group, including
two of China's closest neighbors, India and Japan,
Wen Jiabao, the Chinese premier, raised Beijing's
stake in the relief, catapulting it to the top 10
on the donor lists.
Western
commentators have been playing up the numbers game as
an indication of the stakes involved. For
instance, it has been noticed that Japan, with a
$500 million aid package, has outdone both the US
($350 million) and China, which committed only
$63 million despite its higher military stakes in
the region. India has never been happy about
the Chinese presence in the area. India's aid of
$23 million rushed to Sri Lanka within hours of
the disaster has also been commented about, along
with the deployment of what is now being seen as
the most equipped navy in the Indian Ocean, a
fact that was re-emphasized by Indian Foreign
Minister Natwar Singh in Jakarta: "We are happy to place
the strengths of the Indian navy for use in
humanitarian relief in the region." New Delhi has
dispatched three survey ships converted to
hospitals-at-sea - one to Nicobar, one to Sri
Lanka and one to Indonesia.
There is no
denying that both India and China want to ensure
their geostrategic presence in the region in the
wake of the tsunami tragedy. Writing in the Times
of India, Washington-based foreign editor
Chidanand Rajghatta says, "As major powers of the
world summon their financial and military might to
help the victims, New Delhi has put its own
imprint on the region in the wake of the tragedy.
While some may find talk of geostrategy repugnant
in the face of the disaster, Western analysts are
following every move by the US and Asian powers in
the region. Several commentaries have spoken of
which country is outmaneuvering the other."
In a statement, Ronen
Sen, India's ambassador to the US, emphasizing India's
pre-eminence, said, "The reason why India was
approached to join the team of core nations was
because it is a country with major capabilities.
We have the largest navy in the Indian Ocean.
There are good reasons why it is called the Indian
Ocean ... it has always been in the Indian sphere
of influence. To get a measure of India's
territorial expanse, Western experts should try
superimposing the map of Europe over that of
India. It is often overlooked, even by Indians,
that the distance from Delhi to Dushanbe in
Central Asia is less than to many southern Indian
cities. Sad as it is, it took the tsunami to
realize India's expanse. Even the British who drew
our maps first have no idea of this now."
Bush, who is known to
subscribe to New Delhi's power aspirations as a
counter to China, said during his visit to the
Indian Embassy to condole the victims, "I want to
thank the Indian government for taking a lead in
this issue. One of the first things that we did
was to put together a core group of nations,
nations that are capable of organizing relief
efforts around the region, and the Indian
government has been especially strong, as a part
of this core group."
Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh was joined
by Powell and Florida Governor (and George W's
brother) Jeb Bush, Chinese Premier Wen and Annan in
Jakarta. The conference was much more than just
a high-profile meeting of nations looking to provide aid
to more than 5 million people affected, under the aegis of
the UN. Behind the announcements of the much-needed
doles to the victims was the veiled politics of
national and international geopolitical ambitions.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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