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Musharraf ups the ante on
Kashmir
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - A US-backed peace initiative in
South Asia began more than a year ago. Apart from
several confidence-building measures, several new
ideas were floated in an attempt to resolve the
half-century Kashmir dispute between India and
Pakistan.
Heavily backed by US
assurances of aid and support, Pakistani President
General Pervez Musharraf hastily took a U-turn on
his country's Kashmir policy and talked of
"meeting halfway somewhere" in the hope of
emerging as the unequivocally US-
backed leader of the
subcontinent who had succeeded in resolving the
Kashmir dispute.
However, India did not
join in Musharraf's U-turn policy and remained
firm on its stance that "Kashmir is an integral
part of India", leaving Musharraf out on a limb.
As a result, on his recent visit to the US,
Musharraf had nothing to show President George W
Bush other than a picture of resentment in the
army. This resentment stemmed from Islamabad's
conciliatory stance on Kashmir, which in turn came
from the belief that Pakistan was not making use
of its strongest bargaining chip: without
Pakistan's intervention, the Afghan resistance
would be able to consolidate on Pakistani soil.
Many men in uniform therefore believed that
Musharraf should use this fact to gain approval
from the US for a tougher line on Kashmir, as he
has now done.
No more Mr Nice Guy
In a Corps Commanders' conference held in the
middle of this week at general headquarters in
Rawalpindi, Musharraf, for the first time in more
than a year, appeared to be on the same wavelength
as his top brass. In great zeal, he announced "no
more concessions to India, and tit-for-tat replies
to atrocities committed by the Indian army in
Indian-held Kashmir" and "no solution to the
Kashmir problem except by plebiscite [by the
people of Kashmir] for the right of
self-determination" and "complete support for the
armed struggle of Kashmiris for their liberation
movement".
Insiders say this was
Musharraf's bid to save face after his failed and
one-sided diplomatic efforts to resolve the
Kashmir dispute. The Musharraf government even
went to the extent of closing all training camps
in Pakistan-administered Kashmir used as bases for
cross-border militancy. Pakistan also turned a
blind eye to India erecting a giant fence along
the Line of Control that separates the two
sections of Kashmir, in contravention of United
Nations resolutions which suggest that Kashmir is
a disputed territory and thus any demarcation
should be discouraged.
This was done in
the hope that Kashmir would be recognized as a
land of seven regions, on US insinuation, and that
India would agree on a formula which suggests the
"division of Kashmir" on religious, ethnic and
geographical lines. Yet India rejected all ideas
except that "Kashmir is an integral part of
India".
This diplomatic defeat was so big
that Musharraf's credibility was at stake in his
constituency - the Pakistan army. Something had to
give, and global events played into the general's
hands.
The US has extended itself in the
Middle East, where it is deeply embroiled in a war
in Iraq that it cannot win, and the situation can
only get worse as the scheduled January 30
elections approach.
A previous ally in the
"war on terror", Syria, is becoming a problem,
while there is much bad blood with Iran over its
suspected development of nuclear weapons and
interference in Iraq. Afghanistan, despite
presidential elections confirming Hamid Karzai as
leader, remains a trouble spot.
At
present,
Pakistan is the United States' only link in these
regions, especially Afghanistan, where, should
Pakistan choose, it could facilitate a dramatic
escalation in the resistance by opening up its
bordering tribal areas to this resistance. The US,
with its obsession to close war theaters, could
not tolerate this, so it could not afford to lose
its vital ally Musharraf.
Answer to US
concerns
In this scenario, giving the rope
to Pakistan to tighten the noose around New Delhi
to talk business on Kashmir is the best option for
both the US and Musharraf.
In Washington,
Pakistan's policy to eliminate private militias
was much appreciated - this was carried out at US
dictate to all private militias which had ties to
the Taliban or al-Qaeda.
Maulana Fazlur
Rehman Khalil of the defunct Harkatul Mujahideen,
Maulana Abdul Jabbar and Abdullah Shah Mazhar of
the defunct Jaish-i-Mohammed and many other
prominent names have been placed under "informal"
detention at the behest of the US and are still
under observation. More than 3,000 activists from
these organizations are also missing from their
homes.
The Jamaatut Dawa (formerly the
Lashkar-i-Toiba) was also a casualty. Its leader,
Hafiz Mohammed Saeed, took an oath to all office
bearers and partymen not to take part in any
activity against party discipline, which included
not sheltering any foreigners or taking part in
any insurgency or in the guerrilla movement in
Afghanistan. This created a lot of dissent within
the party and dozens of Lashkar's activists
protested. They were quickly rounded up and placed
in detention. Many are missing.
Given this
Pakistani cooperation, a limited operation against
Kashmir to force New Delhi to talk about the
disputed region would be acceptable to the US.
Sources within the military tell Asia Times Online
that Musharraf will give the go-ahead for "limited
activity" in support of the Kashmiri movement and
that all Kashmir groups have been given the signal
to operate. Prominent among these will be Jamaatut
Dawa members in Mureedkay at the Dawa's
headquarters in Punjab, who in March will mount a
new wave of suicide attacks in Indian-administered
Kashmir.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is
Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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