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The tsunami and the
LTTE
By B Raman
Sri
Lanka has suffered the most human fatalities
(30,000 plus) and infrastructure and other
property damage after Indonesia in the
catastrophic tsunami disaster of last month.
According to reliable reports from
independent sources, the Sri Lankan Tamil
community in the Northern and Eastern provinces
has suffered the most in the tragedy, registering
more than half of the fatalities in the entire
country.
Roads and other infrastructure in
the Tamil areas, which were already in an
unsatisfactory state due to nearly 20 years of the
Tamil insurgency for an independent Tamil state to
be called Tamil Eelam, have suffered further
damage, thereby hampering relief and
rehabilitation efforts.
Since the
tsunami has caused widespread damage or destruction
to fishing and other boats in the area, and since
the large number of mines planted by the
security forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE) during the conflict have been loosened
by the water surge, thereby causing serious danger
to anyone moving on foot or by vehicle across
agricultural and other fields, the only way of
rushing humanitarian assistance to the Tamils is
by road.
Repair of the roads and damaged
culverts and bridges has, therefore, to be given
priority. Unfortunately, the efforts of the Sri
Lankan government in this regard have been
sluggish so far. It is alleged by the Tamils that
the government has been paying more attention to
the repair and restoration of damaged road and
rail communications in the Sinhalese-majority
areas of the south.
The LTTE was the first
to be on its feet after the disaster hit the area
and lost no time in organizing relief, in
disposing of dead bodies and initiating measures
for the restoration of at least a semblance of
normalcy in the areas under its control.
Governmental agencies and the army were
much slower to react in the Tamil areas,
preoccupied as they were in the Sinhalese-majority
areas. Pro-LTTE sources have alleged that
President Chandrika Kumaratunge's government,
including the army, turned a deaf ear to the
LTTE's request for urgently placing heavy
earth-moving and other equipment at its disposal
so that it could repair and restore the damaged
road communications.
The seeming
insensitivity of the government to the tragedy
suffered by the Tamils and its apparent attempts
to draw political mileage out of it are also
evident from the reported orders of Kumaratunge to
the army to take over the responsibility for
running the relief and rehabilitation camps set up
by pro-LTTE non-governmental organizations in the
Tamil areas controlled by the government.
When they found the governmental agencies
slow to move into the affected Tamil areas under
government control, these non-governmental
organizations took the initiative in setting up
these camps. Instead of appreciating their efforts
and encouraging and helping them to continue to do
so, the government has ordered them to hand them
over to the army. This has been strongly resisted
by the LTTE, which has threatened to continue to
resist it at any price.
The government
has reportedly rebuked the Italian Embassy in
Colombo for sending humanitarian relief directly to
the affected Tamils and has made it clear that
all governmental assistance from other
countries should be routed to the Tamils through it.
It strongly opposed the wish of Kofi Annan,
the United Nations secretary general, who was in
Sri Lanka on Saturday, to visit the affected Tamil
areas in the northern province, too, and meet the
Tamil leaders ( meaning apparently the LTTE
leaders) in order to express the solidarity of the
international community with them, thereby forcing
him to cancel his plans to go there. The
government reportedly took him only to the Tamil
areas in the eastern province still under its
control.
While repeatedly denying the
LTTE's allegations of discrimination against the
Tamils, Kumaratunge has claimed that 80% of all
foreign medical assistance and other humanitarian
relief groups have been sent by the government to
the Tamil areas, but this is questioned by the
Tamils. On the ground, the way the government has
been acting gives the impression that it is giving
first priority to the Sinhalese majority areas,
the second to the Tamil areas under its control
and only the last to the areas under the control
of the LTTE.
Independent reports from the
Northern and Eastern provinces indicate that the
military infrastructure of the government as well
as the LTTE has also been seriously damaged by the
tsunami, with the LTTE, which had a stronger and a
wider presence than the government, suffering much
greater damage.
Kumaratunge has been
quoted in the media as saying that the possibility
of the LTTE returning to insurgency due to its
continuing differences with the government was far
more remote than it was before December 26, since,
according to her, the LTTE had suffered heavy
losses to its cadres and equipment. "Our camps
have also lost a lot of equipment but physical
damage to camp structures are less," she said.
It stands to reason that the
LTTE's military infrastructure in the north as well
as the east must have suffered considerably since
the most devastating impact of the tsunami in
Sri Lanka was reportedly in the Tamil areas.
However, it has been difficult to quantify the
losses suffered by the LTTE and to assess its impact
on the LTTE's capability for resuming the
insurgency and keeping it sustained. In the absence
of reliable information, it is also difficult
to estimate what effect the devastation has had
on the LTTE's following among the
people, particularly in the Eastern province, where
its hold had been showing signs of weakening
since last March.
While the LTTE has been more
efficient than the government in documenting the
losses suffered by the Tamil civilians and in
sharing the information with the international
community, it has been playing down the losses
suffered by its military infrastructure and giving
figures which do not seem to be correct. On the
other hand, the Sinhalese media, suspected to have
been fed disinformation by the military
intelligence, has been reporting what appears to
be highly exaggerated figures of the losses
allegedly suffered by the LTTE.
Reuters
news agency, which one would presume to be
independent, reported as follows in a dispatch
from Mullaitivu on December 29: "The Tigers' main
naval base at Mullaitivu was devastated, as was
part of its fleet. Bodies littered the ground like
an upturned graveyard and the overpowering stench
of death wafted over the area. Children accounted
for the bulk of the victims in nearby fishing
villages. All 135 children at an orphanage run by
female Tigers were swept away to their deaths. 'We
have only found bodies so far,' said Colonel
Soosai, head of the Tigers' naval arm, the Sea
Tigers. 'We have not received any aid from the
government yet. If the government warned us early
when the quake struck, the devastation could have
been partially avoided,' he said angrily. The
rebels, whom the United States have placed on a
list of banned terror groups alongside the likes
of al-Qaeda, said just 15 of their cadres were
among the dead. A whole battalion of Sea Tiger
cadres in fatigues collected bloated bodies and
lined them at the roadside ready for mass burial.
Some wearing white medical masks and gloves used
leafy branches to swish away thousands of flies
swarming over the dead. Few buildings on the coast
were left standing. Mangled wreckage of trucks,
mopeds and fishing boats lay twisted along the
shore, and crumpled bodies were tangled in fishing
nets. Telephone lines to the south were disrupted.
Aid workers said that residents in the northeast
now faced a new threat, from thousands of an
estimated one million mostly plastic landmines
sown across the region and now uprooted by
floodwaters. Officials said just 12 of 1,500 local
fishing boats were still seaworthy. More than
120,000 people in Tiger-held areas had been
displaced from their homes, many now housed in
makeshift refugee camps. Roofs sagged, walls
crumbled and bricks littered the town. Many
distraught survivors could only look on in
desperation."
A website of the LTTE has
quoted Soosai as stating as follows on the losses
suffered by the LTTE: "In Mullaitivu three of our
fighters perished. Major Dharmendra, a fighter who
was assigned to provide support to him [Soosai]
and a civilian fighter we call 'Petrol Iyah', died
in the calamity. In Vattuvagal and Chaalai we
didn't suffer any losses to personnel. In
Vadamaradchy east we lost three fighters manning
the forward defense lines. An LTTE woman cadre who
had come to Vadamaradchy East on leave died in the
flooding. Loss of lives of our cadres was limited
to those I have mentioned. We suffered some
additional property damage. In Trincomalee and in
Batticaloa two observation posts were washed away.
The losses are not that significant."
However, non-Tamil and non-LTTE sources
have been giving differing estimates of the LTTE
cadres killed, varying between 1,200 and 5,000.
According to them, large quantities of arms,
ammunition and explosives stockpiled by the Tigers
have been destroyed. Tiger camps at Nagar Kovil in
Jaffna, Mahalnadu, Welvetithurai, Thandamanarau,
Malati, Mathagal, Mankarni and Sea Tiger camps at
Mullaitivu, Nayaru, Chmmaale, Championpaththu and
Chalai have been completely destroyed. Four Tiger
radar centers positioned along the Mullaitivu
coastal belt have been damaged beyond repair.
About 200 boats belonging to the Sea Tigers as
well as 1,500 boats belonging to fishermen, who
are sympathetic to the LTTE, have also been badly
damaged.
Mystery surrounds the fate of
Prabakaran, the leader of the LTTE. While a
statement on the disaster attributed to him was
disseminated by the LTTE on December 29, he has
neither been seen nor heard since December 26. The
only senior LTTE leaders, who have been active
visiting the devastated areas, are Tamilselvan,
the head of the political department of the LTTE,
who has been liaising with the representatives of
non-governmental organizations engaged in relief
work, Soosai, the head of the Sea Tigers, Colonel
Bhanu, who is the overall LTTE commander for
Batticaloa-Amparai district in the eastern
province, and some of their juniors.
All
statements critical of the government and
appealing to the international community have been
mainly coming from these three leaders. According
to one report, Prabakaran, Pottu Amman, his
intelligence chief, and some other senior leaders
of the LTTE were attending a special Christmas
service in a Mullaitivu church on the morning of
December 26 when the tsunami struck the church and
they have not been seen again. Nor have their
bodies been found.
The government-owned
Sri Lankan Broadcasting Corporation (SLBC) stated
on January 8, quoting a vice-admiral of the Sri
Lankan navy, that Prabakaran and Pottu Amman were
among the dead or reported missing, but the LTTE
immediately denied this as a mischievous
fabrication. Even Soosai has been quoted in some
reports as saying that there were at least 1,600
fatalities in Mullaitivu. If Prabakaran was
located there at the time of the disaster as
claimed by non-LTTE sources, it should not be a
surprise if he was among the victims. However, the
SLBC is since reported to have retracted its
statement without giving any reason.
One has
to treat these reports with considerable
skepticism for the present due to the following
reasons:
The same sources had earlier claimed that
Tamilselvan was also among the dead or missing. He
has since appeared in public and has been moving
around.
If the entire congregation in a church had
been killed, the church leaders would have made a
reference to it. They have not.
The day before the arrival of Annan in
Colombo, some senior church leaders of the
northern province had written to him appealing to
him to visit Mullaitivu and see the devastation
for himself and meet the LTTE leaders.
The
LTTE itself and many pro-LTTE organizations had
addressed similar appeals to him. It is doubtful
whether they would have done so if Prabakaran was
dead or missing. If Annan had visited Mullaitivu
and if Prabakaran was not there to receive him, it
would have been taken by the public as
confirmation of his death.
Whatever be the
truth, one thing appears very likely, if not
certain. The LTTE's military-cum-terrorist machine
has been badly damaged by the tsunami. Similarly,
its tax-collection machinery and its usual sources
of funds have been damaged. Some of the statements
of the LTTE leaders show that they are on the
defensive. Even while criticizing the government,
they are avoiding unnecessary rhetoric.
The tsunami has been a traumatic shock for
the LTTE and its surviving leadership, but there
is no evidence so far to indicate demoralization
in the ranks of its survivors or a weakening of
their motivation. Unfortunately, only Ranil
Wickremasinghe, the former prime minister, who
initiated the peace process with the LTTE, has
been conducting himself in a statesmanlike manner
in this hour of tragedy. He has been pointing out
that despite the setback suffered by it, it was
the LTTE which was the first to recover from the
shock and rush to the relief of the people. He
has, therefore, been arguing in favor of routing
all relief and rehabilitation through it and
through organizations allied to it.
At
this hour of national and regional tragedy, one
could detect among sections of the Sinhalese signs
of malign glee not only over the damage suffered
by the LTTE, but also over the fatalities suffered
by Tamil civilians. One only has to visit the
Internet chat rooms of many Sinhalese groups to
have an idea of their mindset. I am giving below
random examples of the comments of the Sinhalese:
"If we let them alone, disease will wipe them out.
Sounds like the seven plagues in Egypt to me. Let
God do what man has been unwilling to do; "
"Nothing like a giant tsunami to ruin a good
rebellion;" "Those kids [children who were killed
by the tsunami] would have ended up as child
soldiers of the LTTE anyway;" "Let them [the
Tamils] rot. Perfect opportunity to go in and wipe
out what's left of them;" "Have their leaders
strap on mega-bomb vests, then explode themselves.
I'm sure they'll leave behind a crater large
enough to bury quite a few bodies."
One
finds it difficult not to form an impression that
many Sinhalese feel that the tsunami has had a
brighter side in that it has taught a lesson to
the Tamils and the LTTE. Even Kumaratunge and her
colleagues seem to feel that the tsunami has
brought the LTTE to its knees and this is the time
to teach it a lesson.
The LTTE is a
ruthless organization and Prabakaran was the most
ruthless terrorist leader in the world. One need
not shed any tears over his death, if he is really
dead. I have been repeatedly writing that the Sri
Lankan Tamils need an LTTE minus Prabakaran and
that if the LTTE throws him out and gives up
terrorism, India and Sri Lanka should be prepared
to do business with it. Without the protective
role of the LTTE, the Tamils would be at the mercy
of the Sinhalese chauvinists. Statesmanship
demands that the Sri Lankan leaders should work
for such a denouement through special gestures to
the Tamils and the other leaders of the LTTE. The
signs of insensitivity in the attitude of
Kumaratunge are unwise and dangerous and could
further aggravate the feelings of alienation of
the Tamils.
B Raman additional
secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat,
government of India, New Delhi, and, presently,
director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai,
and distinguished fellow and convener, Observer
Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter. Email:
corde@vsnl.com
(Copyright 2005, B
Raman) |
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