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Setback to pipeline
plans
By Gal Luft
For
both energy hungry India and its swiftly growing
neighbor, Pakistan, the need for natural gas is
more pressing than ever. Pakistan has one of the
world's fastest-growing populations and its demand
for gas will expand significantly over the next
two decades. India's gas demand will almost double
by 2015, and due to the decline of its reserves it
will be forced to import increasing amounts of
gas. As the world's second-largest gas reserve,
Iran is the most geographically convenient
supplier of gas to both countries.
India
considered three transport routes for gas from
Iran: shipping it through the Arabian Sea on board
tankers in the form of liquefied natural gas,
sending it through a deep sea pipeline, or
alternatively transporting it on land via a
1,700-mile pipeline from Iran's South Pars field
to India. The latter option means 475 miles of the
pipeline will pass through Balochistan in southern
Pakistan.
A land-based pipeline would be four
times cheaper than any other option, even after
taking into account transit fee payments to
Pakistan. But for a long time political tensions
between India and Pakistan made it difficult for
Delhi to accept an energy project that would
create dependence on a neighbor with whom its
relations were far from stable. The recent
improvement in relations between the two neighbors
has led India to finally consider joining forces
with Pakistan for the mutually beneficial pipeline
project, estimated to cost about US$4 billion. A
third of the gas would be delivered to Pakistan
and the rest to India.
For Iran, India's
participation in the project is of paramount
importance. In addition to a broader market for
its gas, Iran hopes to gain political support from
India as it is facing strong international
pressure to terminate its nuclear program. In
return for India's agreement to buy large
quantities of gas, Iran has awarded Indian gas
companies major service contracts and also granted
them participation in refining and other energy
related projects to the tune of $40 billion.
Iran's relations with Pakistan are also
strategically important. With American troops
stationed in neighboring Afghanistan and Iraq,
Iran is trying to check US influence in the region
by strengthening its ties with Pakistan, one of
America's most needed allies in the "war on
terror". The Pakistanis, for their part, would
like to see their territory used as a transit
route to export natural gas to India. This would
not only guarantee a source of income for them but
also increase stability in the region. Pakistani
Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said the
Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline is "a win-win
proposition for Iran, India and Pakistan" that
could serve as a durable confidence-building
measure, creating strong economic links and
business partnerships among the three countries.
But this win-win proposition seems to be
threatened by terrorists. A few days after Iran's
oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, arrived in
New Delhi to discuss the future of the pipeline,
terrorists in Pakistan blew up two gas pipelines,
sending a message to all parties involved that the
"pipeline of peace" might be anything but
peaceful.
The area of the
Balochistan-Punjab border where the pipeline is
supposed to run is one of Pakistan's poorest areas
and its most restive province. In recent years it
has been a battleground of private militias
belonging to Baloch tribes. Sporadic armed clashes
resulted in attacks against water pipelines, power
transmission lines and gas installations. Yet the
region is strategically important due to its large
reserves of oil and gas. But these riches do
little for the Baloch tribesmen. Over the years
Islamabad has failed to provide a fair share of
the oil and gas wealth. Lack of economic progress
and a deep sense of disaffection has contributed
to the distrust between the federal government and
the Baloch people.
As a result, the tribes
now oppose any energy projects in their area. In
January 2003, sabotage of a gas pipeline from Sui
cut off supply to Punjab. Later, in June, a wave
of attacks against gas installations caused the
government to send troops to protect the
installations. For the rest of 2003 and the
following year the confrontation was defused, but
the underlying grievances of the local population
were not addressed. To calm the area Islamabad
recently added carrots to its policy of sticks by
increasing investment in regional development
projects. However, it seems that violence has
resurfaced and the region is sliding into a near
war situation.
On the night of January 8,
terrorists belonging to the Baloch Liberation
Front (BLF) fired rockets at the pipeline and
exchanged gunfire with security forces for several
hours. During the exchange the pipeline caught
fire, disrupting supply to a power plant. Six
people were killed. In a separate incident the BLF
launched an attack on the pipeline close to Sui
township, 250 miles north of Karachi. This area
alone produces about 45% of Pakistan's total gas
production. Some rockets also exploded close to
the main pipeline supplying gas to Sindh and
Punjab provinces, but did not cause any damage. On
January 11 Baloch gunmen stormed facilities
operated by state-run Pakistan Petroleum Ltd in
Sui. The gunmen overpowered the guards and damaged
pipelines and a purification plant. Gunmen also
kidnapped 10 employees of the Water and Power
Development Authority, Pakistan's main water and
power utility. The attacks disrupted gas and power
production as well work in fertilizer and chemical
plants.
Many in the region believe that
the recent attacks in Balochistan province are
meant to sabotage the pipeline project as well as
other projects connecting Sui gas installations
with Turkmenistan gas fields. If true, these
pipeline attacks are unsettling and will raise to
the surface India's concerns about the reliability
of the project. The possibility of sabotage of the
proposed Iran-India pipeline by militant groups in
Pakistan is becoming increasingly feasible as
terrorists learn from their allies in Iraq about
the strategic gain in conducting a sustained
sabotage campaign against oil infrastructure. This
is especially true after last month's exhortation
by Osama bin Ladin to his cohorts to target oil
pipelines in the Persian Gulf. In the next few
weeks India will have to make a final
determination if it wants to join the pipeline
project. If Pakistan truly wants India to share
the burden of the project, it should demonstrate
to Delhi that it can ensure security and stability
along the pipeline route.
Pakistani
President General Pervez Musharraf warned the
Baloch tribesmen to stop their violence,
threatening to use force: "Don't push us ... it is
not the 1970s, and this time you won't even know
what has hit you," he said, referring to a
crackdown in the 1970s on separatists in the area.
As we have seen in other parts of the world where
pipelines are under attack, ending the onslaught
may well prove to be mission impossible.
Nevertheless, Islamabad has already indicated that
the pipeline project will be pursued even were
India to decide not to join.
Gal
Luft is executive director of the Institute
for the Analysis of Global Security.
(Published with permission of the Institute for the Analysis of Global
Security )
(Copyright 2005,
Institute for the Analysis of Global
Security.) |
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