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US keeps Iran in its
sights
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The US is committed to holding
elections in Iraq on January 30, but whatever the
results at the ballot box - given the Sunni
boycott and security problems - the expected
Shi'ite victory is likely to be a turning point in
the region's geopolitical strategic dynamics that
could further spread the flames of war to Iran, as
well as to Syria.
As soon as the Iraqi heartland
(Mesopotamia), characterized by three strategic
lifelines in Ninawa, Babylon and al-Anbar,
is completely under Ba'athist control, the
United States and the government it supports in Baghdad
will be under siege, while the oil-rich Tamim
(which includes the city of Kirkuk) and Basra will
continue to be isolated and under the control of
private militias, rather than any US-backed
authority.
The indications are that
despite its military being dragged into a morass
in Iraq, the US will remain committed to its cause
and will continue to go after the "evil" it sees
in nations like Iran. For this, war preparations
are already in the pipeline in northern Iraq on
the one side of the Iranian border, and in the
southwestern parts of Pakistan on the other side.
A British newspaper reported
recently that the Pentagon was contemplating the
infiltration of the Iranian rebel group, the
Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), to collect intelligence.
Asia Times Online sources say that the group will
remain at its traditional base in Iranian
Balochistan adjacent to Pakistani Balochistan,
from where it will attempt to play the role of a
catalyst to organize an insurgency against the
rule of Islamic hardliners in Tehran.
This
strategy aims to deter Iran from striking back
against any possible attack on its nuclear sites.
Intelligence sources based in
Islamabad maintain that Pakistani interrogators
have collected all details of Iran's nuclear sites
from Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, confessed proliferator
and father of Pakistan's nuclear-weapons program, and
submitted them to the US. The information includes
the location of 30 nuclear installations spread
across the country. (Khan remains under informal
house arrest in Pakistan.) These details would be
critical in the event of an attack. Analysts
believe that such an offensive could come from
Israel, rather than the US, with Washington's
blessing of course.
Nevertheless, the US would
play an important role, using northern Iraq and
southwestern Pakistan as its strategic back
yard.
In a telephone conversation with Asia
Times Online last year, the former director
general of the Pakistani Inter-Services
Intelligence, retired Lieutenant-General Hamid
Gul, an expert on the region, pointed out that
various strategic sites would be handed over to
the US, including Qila Saifullah, Shila Bagh and
Dalbandin in Balochistan (see Pakistan
in a squeeze over Iraq, July 3, 2004).
Though he maintained that the sites would
be developed for reconnaissance operations against
the Taliban and al-Qaeda, considering that these
places, especially Dalbandin, have traditionally
been the best sites from which to cover Iran, it
is certain that they will serve as important bases
in the event that any operations are launched
against Iran, whether directly by the US or
indirectly with the help of Israel.
There
is a consensus that an attack on Iran would most
likely be a very limited war "from space" in which
selected targets would be bombed with long-range
missiles, and that any possible military backlash
would be countered by internal insurgency, in
which the MEK would play a lead role.
Targeting Syria
An identical
strategy to that adopted for Iran is likely to be
applied to the last Ba'athist regime in the
region, Syria, which could still pose a serious
strategic problem to US designs in Iraq.
Syria is host to the largest Iraqi
expatriate community, about 400,000, which
includes strong pro-Saddam Hussein Ba'athist
elements who have formed strong pockets and
relations with the Syrian Ba'ath Party, as well as
with the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah,
which supply them with arms and training. The
Mosul-Syrian border is the main point of
infiltration into Iraq.
Support of the
Iraqi resistance movement is so deep-rooted and
pervasive at the grassroots level that the Syrian
government cannot afford to clash with this
segment, whether it be Iraqi expatriates, their
Syrian supporters, Syrian Ba'ath Party members or
Islamist Palestinian groups. Therefore, limited
air strikes on specific Syrian targets are highly
tipped in the near future. And battered as it is
with sanctions and with a possible Kurd uprising
in its territory, Syria is unlikely to be able to
respond in any meaningful way.
Syed
Saleem Shahzad is Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia
Times Online. He can be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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