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India hits Nepal where it
hurts
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It has been a
subject of speculation over the past few weeks,
and has only now been confirmed: India has decided
to freeze all military aid to Nepal. This follows
the political developments in Nepal that took
place on February 1, when King Gyanendra dismissed
the democratically elected government of Sher
Bahadur Deuba, assumed executive powers, declared
a state of emergency and suspended fundamental
rights.
"In view of the current disturbed conditions
in Nepal, it is a fact that no military supplies
have been delivered since February 1," an Indian Foreign
Ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday, the first
official confirmation of news reports speculating
the same since the dismissal of the Deuba
government.
The suspension of military
aid is the most definitive action taken against
the royal government by India since the king's
drastic measures. India had earlier sharply
criticized King Gyanendra after he took over. More than
the fact that India sees King Gyanendra's moves as
an attack on the principles of democratic norms,
it will be the impact on the military
operations against the Maoist insurgents who control most
of Nepal's countryside that will be India's main cause
for concern.
According to estimates,
India has provided arms worth US$93 million to
Nepal over the past three years that form the kingdom's
key resource in the battle against the communist
rebels who have caused rampant bloodshed since
1996, costing more than 11,000 lives. The very
reason that King Gyanendra used to dismiss the
Deuba government - to crush the growing insurgency
- will now stand defeated as India withdraws its
support. Nepal, one of the 10 poorest countries in
the world, relies on humanitarian and military
aid, especially from India, in its tough battle to
take on the Maoist insurgency.
The
action will directly impinge on military supplies to
the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA), which is fiercely
loyal to Gyanendra, of arms and ammunition,
helicopters, armored vehicles, bulletproof vests and
helmets, besides military training to its soldiers. It
is the RNA that led the coup in Nepal and would have
provided the main battlefront against the Maoists.
Military training for RNA soldiers and officials
in India and on Nepalese soil has also been put on
hold, as well as Indo-Nepal joint mountaineering
expeditions. However, Indian economic cooperation
in humanitarian spheres will continue. India
supports projects in the spheres of education,
health, culture and infrastructure.
US,
UK back India
What amounts to more bad news
for King Gyanendra is that India, the United
States and the United Kingdom are working in synch
with their approach to the situation in Nepal. The
US and the European Union also recalled (they have
since returned) their ambassadors from Nepal last
week and called for King Gyanendra to restore
democratic rule. The US has threatened to cut its
$1.5 million military aid to Nepal, while Britain
on Tuesday announced the withdrawal of an offer
for a gift of military equipment pending a review
of its policy toward Kathmandu. The decision by
Britain to freeze supplies of military equipment
came in the wake of India's confirmation that it
would cease to provide Nepal with military aid.
The US has made it clear that it
wants India to play a "leading role" in facilitating
the restoration of democracy in Nepal and
would support New Delhi's efforts to bring
the government and rebels to the dialogue table,
US envoy to India David C Mulford said on
Tuesday. "Our approach is to look to India, which
has comprehensive relations with the country, for
a supportive role rather than step in. India
should play the leading role," Mulford told
reporters. "Any effort can be made for Nepal to return to
a democratic format," he said, when asked whether the US
will support any Indian offer for mediation
between rebels (politicians) and the royal
government.
"We continue to urge the king
to restore representative government and
democratic freedoms," UK Foreign Secretary Jack
Straw said in a statement on the Foreign Office
website. "These are essential steps toward a
sustainable peace process."
Indeed, India finds itself in a difficult
situation vis-a-vis the new dispensation in Nepal. India
is concerned that Maoist violence in Nepal could
spread into Indian states where radical leftist
groups are powerful, and see any hope of a
long-term solution only through negotiations. King Gyanendra
is now expected to come down hard on the Maoists
in an attempt to prove his belief that
the earlier democratically elected governments in
Nepal were too weak to take on the rebels. This
could create problems for India as it will certainly
push the Nepalese insurgents into Indian territory,
who in turn are likely to join hands with
the leftist radicals that abound in the states of
Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Orissa and
Andhra Pradesh and are a cause for major law-and-order problems
in the country. If India is seen as strengthening
the hands of Gyanendra, it will provide an
additional handle for the Maoist cadres to renew
their efforts though bold attacks on government
property and functionaries.
India wants a solution to the Maoist
insurgency in Nepal to emerge within the precincts
of the kingdom without any spillover
into India. An elected government in Nepal is
not only the best cushion against an all-out
assault on the Nepalese Maoists but also is the best bet
for any form of dialogue happening, with the
king playing an indirect role at best. The
dismissal of democracy in Nepal will fuel the Maoist
cadres, who will be easily convinced of the
anti-people nature of King Gyanendra's move, and add fire
to the already existing angst against the
monarchy. The only silver lining is that the Indian
move to suspend military aid is a reminder that
it is confident that China will keep away
from any military intervention in Nepal so as not to
annoy India, given the rising business interests
between the two countries.
Meanwhile, India's dealings with Nepal are in contrast
to its improving relations with Pakistan, where
there are plenty of peace overtures in
place, despite Pakistan having a military dictator at
the helm. This further lends credence to the notion
that India's motivation to take on the royal
government in Nepal is driven more out of its
own self-interest than the higher principles of
freedom and democracy.
India is
also miffed over the specific targeting of its
joint ventures in the kingdom under the garb
of "emergency" and has demanded the lifting of
all press curbs. "We have expressed our grave
concern over indiscriminately targeting Indian
joint-venture establishments, including the UTL
[Wireless Telephone Service], the service of which
has been restricted since February 1," Indian
Ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee said in
Kathmandu.
UTL phone services, an
Indo-Nepalese joint venture, have been blocked
indefinitely since the royal takeover. Mukherjee
said that all curbs on the press in Nepal should
be lifted immediately. India had recalled the
Indian ambassador for consultations in a direct
snub to the new royal dispensation, and Mukherjee
returned to Nepal on Sunday with a firm missive to
the king to restore democracy, release political
leaders and bring back his country's media
freedoms.
The Gyanandra government has
been trying to placate India through conciliatory
statements. Ramesh Nath Pandey, the new Nepalese
foreign minister, said this week, "Our
government's standing policy is not to allow
Nepal's soil to be used against any of its
neighbors. We are confident that our friendly
neighbors will reciprocate." Nepal is "very
serious" about its commitments with India, Pandey
said. But this is unlikely to hold much water for
now as far as New Delhi is concerned.
The
international community funds 62% of Nepal's
development budget and the country is one of the
poorest in the world, with 42% of its people living
below the poverty line and 80% relying on
agriculture to earn their livelihoods. Nepal,
located between India and China, attracts tourists
and climbers, as it is home to Mount Everest, the
world's highest mountain, and another eight of the
world's 14 peaks higher than 8,000 meters.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based
journalist
(Copyright 2005 Asia
Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
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