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The remaking of
al-Qaeda
By Syed Saleem
Shahzad
KARACHI - More
than four years since the launch of the
campaign to catch Osama bin Laden "dead of alive",
the US has initiated a new phase in the "war on
terror" to counter perceived threats from al-Qaeda
generated by a new breed of operatives spawned in
the post-September 11 era. Unlike the
pre-September 11 al-Qaeda, the structure, central
command, depth and whereabouts
of the latest incarnation remain largely a
mystery.
An Asia Times Online
investigation based on interviews with well-placed
sources in Pakistan who have been in coordination
with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) at a
very senior level attempts to shed some light on
today's threat from al-Qaeda.
What
is known is that the al-Qaeda network has
been battered over the past few years, with curbs
on its ability to access money and coordinate. Out
of this, though, new groups have sprung
up worldwide, strongly politically
motivated, patient and with the broader perspective
of toppling pro-US governments. This development
has not gone unnoticed in Langley, Virginia -
CIA headquarters - which has advised Washington
to develop a counter-strategy to be on a "war
footing" all over the world in the shape of
alliances with Europe and a powerful North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) presence in
South and Central Asia and the Middle East.
Almost as a publicity stunt to announce its
newfound determination, the United States has launched a
massive US$57 million campaign in Pakistan's press
and electronic media (and in other countries),
drawing attention to the world's most wanted man
and reaffirming the $25 million bounty on bin
Laden's head.
Though there have been
claims in the media of a good response to the
advertisements, the media blitz is just the first
salvo in a broader battle.
The US campaign
to catch bin Laden began in earnest in the last
months of 1999, when the administration of president Bill
Clinton started serious dialogue with Pakistan,
offering an aid package in return for Islamabad
allowing US forces to use its land and air space.
Bin Laden was then in Afghanistan as a "guest" of
the Taliban, operating jihadi training camps, and
had been linked to the 1998 bombings at US
embassies in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Nairobi,
Kenya, in which more than 200 people died.
However, General Pervez Musharraf
took over as president in a bloodless coup on October
12, 1999, which interrupted the dialogue. But the
US revived a deal with Pakistan in November 2000
in which Saudi Arabia was also involved (see Osama bin
Laden: The thorn in Pakistan's flesh,
August 22, 2001) to bring bin Laden to trial in Saudi
Arabia. But before this initiative could bear
fruit, the attacks of September 11, 2001, took place.
The US has subsequently spent
untold millions of dollars trying to catch bin
Laden. Indeed, his trail has gone completely cold
since last September when a tip placed him in
the Bush Mountains in Shawal, North Waziristan, in
Pakistan's tribal areas on the border with
Afghanistan. But he could not be found, despite a
comprehensive search operation. Now all operations
in Waziristan to root out him and his supporters
have been suspended and it is strongly believed he
is no longer in Pakistan. And he left no clues as
to his next destination.
The new
campaign
Well-placed people Asia Times
Online spoke to maintain that the new phase of the
"war on terror" has started across the world, but
unlike the present campaign in Pakistan, the aim
is not to trace bin Laden, but rather his "links".
After interrogations of several people
arrested in the past few months in Balochistan -
prominent among them being Sharifal Misri, an Egyptian
said to be an important link to bin Laden - it has
emerged that thousands of youths in many countries
have taken inspiration from bin Laden's calls for
jihad against the US. However, that was not the
end of the matter. Many of these youths have
managed to organize themselves into independent
anti-US groups, and through interaction in various
places in Europe and the Middle East with
like-minded people have ultimately made contact
with al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda itself has
stopped all operations pending a new phase. In the
meantime it is focusing on developing these new links
- the very links that the US is now after.
"Most of al-Qaeda's cells have
either been caught or exposed, and they just
cannot operate. The present threat is the fast-growing
network inspired by Osama bin Laden. This new network
is loosely connected [to al-Qaeda] among the
top brass, but for sure is associated with it, and
the US and Pakistan are both looking forward
to catching this new network and their links to
reach bin Laden. The network is not in Pakistan
and Afghanistan alone, but all across the
world," explained a well-placed contact who has 35
years of experience in the counter-intelligence
and internal-security business. He spoke to Asia Times
Online on condition of anonymity.
"There is no indication that they are from a
specific community or ethnic group. They can be
anyone, even blonds from the West. They are
predominantly Western-educated, and not so much from Islamic
seminaries," he added.
A case study
A case in point is that of a US citizen by
the name of Ahmed Abu Ali, 23. He was indicted in
the US Federal Court near Washington on Tuesday
after being held in Saudi Arabia since June 2003.
He faces six charges, including plotting to assassinate
President George W Bush and supporting al-Qaeda's
terrorist network.
This assassination
charge might appear somewhat far-fetched, but
investigations into his life substantiate a strong
inspiration from al-Qaeda and its program, which
he aimed to follow. Abu Ali, who grew up in the
Washington suburb of Falls Church, did not enter a
plea during his initial appearance, but said
through his lawyer that he had been tortured while
in Saudi custody.
His family and friends
describe him as a mild-mannered boy active in
northern Virginia's Muslim community, but the
16-page indictment accuses Abu Ali of conspiring
to kill Bush either by getting "close enough to
the president to shoot him on the street" or by
"detonating a car bomb". Abu Ali "obtained a
religious blessing ... to assassinate Mr Bush",
the charges read. It is also alleged that Abu Ali
wanted to "become a planner of terrorist
operations like Mohammed Atta and Khalid Shaikh
Mohammed, well-known al-Qaeda terrorists
associated with the attacks on September 11,
2001".
The indictment, however, insists
that Abu Ali made contact with al-Qaeda members
between September 2002 and June 2003 and received
training in the use of weapons, including hand
grenades and other explosives, as well as in
document forgery. The indictment said he discussed
an assassination attempt with at least two other
conspirators, one of whom gave him the religious
blessing. He also allegedly tried to make his way
to Afghanistan to fight against Americans, but
could not get there because he was denied the visa
he needed to cross through Iran, the indictment
said.
The indictment refers to 11
co-conspirators who were in Saudi Arabia with Abu
Ali, but neither their names nor their
nationalities were disclosed. The document says at
least two of the 11 were on a public Saudi
government list of 19 people suspected of plotting
terrorist attacks in the kingdom. The list came
out days before a series of bombings in May 2003
in Riyadh killed 34 people, including nine
Americans. Abu Ali was arrested by Saudi
authorities on June 9, 2003, on suspicion of
involvement in the bombings. He had been studying
at the University of Medina.
A Federal
Bureau of Investigation search of his home in
Falls Church shortly after his June 2003 arrest
turned up Arabic audio tapes promoting
violent jihad and the killing of Jews; an
undated, two-page document praising Taliban leader
Mullah Mohammed Omar and the September 11 attacks; a
book written by al-Qaeda chieftain Ayman
al-Zawahiri that characterizes democracy as a new religion
that must be destroyed by war; and a copy of
Handguns magazine with a subscription label
bearing the name Ahmed Ali.
Without
pre-judging Abu Ali, US intelligence believes that
he is a typical model of the new al-Qaeda-inspired
generation and "links" in days when the
traditional al-Qaeda has been curtailed.
New plans
Piecing together
information obtained by Asia Times Online, there
does not appear to be an al-Qaeda threat in the
near future on the scale of the US embassies in
Africa or small-scale bomb attacks. Instead, the
focus will be pressure to topple pro-US
governments in Muslim states and to kickstart the
faltering resistance in Afghanistan. The
aspiration is to once again make the country a hub
for global mujahideen, as it was in the
anti-Soviet years of the 1980s.
The US
response can be expected to manifest itself in a
stronger alliance with Europe, which will include
intelligence sharing. Construction work has
already begun on a new NATO base in Herat in west
Afghanistan, and US officials have confirmed that
they would like more military bases in the
country, in addition to the use of bases in
Pakistan. NATO bases in Iraq and other parts of
the Middle East are also in the cards.
"Three years of active participation in
the war on terror have got me to the realization
that we only searched out and cut branches, only
for them to be replaced with new ones, and this
goes on and on. Now we enter a phase when we are
standing in the complete dark with no mark of the
enemy, yet he is around and is ready to strike at
his time of choice, when, where and how nobody
knows," said a senior field official involved in
intelligence analysis. "After having a theoretical
education in counter-intelligence at Langley and
in London, and having done several joint ventures
with Western agencies, the present threat has only
one answer. And that is justice in the Middle
East."
Syed Saleem Shahzad,
Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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