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Ominous call to arms in South
Asia
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The arms race has begun anew in
South Asia, with defense planners in New Delhi
eyeing controversial deals, while Pakistan's
neglected and cash-strapped military bosses in
general headquarters in Rawalpindi are having to
come up with alternative strategies to counter
developments in India.
India's
defense purchase strategy has changed, with
Indian planners now focused on the specific goal
of neutralizing Pakistan's nuclear-warhead
capability, and once this is achieved, the
military balance will turn significantly in
India's favor.
A top military
strategist told Asia Times Online on condition of
anonymity that this new Indian planning covers a three-to-four-year
period, with the key being the proposed purchase
of the United States' Patriot missile defense
system, which is capable of warding off nuclear
attacks. US officials from the Defense Security
Cooperation Agency were recently in India to give
a presentation of the system, much to the
indignation of Pakistan.
The Indian
Air Force is also evaluating four different
fighters to replace its ageing MiGs: the F-16, the
Mirage 2000-5, the MiG 29-M2 and the JAS-39
Gripen. Pakistan's navy does not have a warhead-delivery
system, and its F-16s - which have nuclear-launch
capabilities - could be contained by a plane such
as the Mirage 2000-5.
Pakistan's
military decision-makers are now in deep consultations
with the Foreign Office and the
Inter-Services Intelligence's Kashmir cell to overhaul
policies in light of what they see as new ground
realities in which they believe India will keep the
Kashmir issue in limbo and make breathing space for
itself under the cover of confidence-building
measures, all the while planning to entrap Pakistan in
a new strategic game.
The Mirage 2000-5
of Dassault Aviation of France is a multi-role
combat fighter with advanced avionics, including
multiple-target air-to-ground and air-to-air firing
procedures. Its radar provides multi-targeting in
air defense and can simultaneously detect up to 24
targets, and then track and scan the eight
highest-priority threats.
The Mirage
2000-5 is a response to the US-made F-16s, which
make up the last remnants of the Pakistan Air
Force (PAF). The PAF acquired 40 F-16s in the late
1980s, but by 2004 many had been destroyed in
accidents, while others were cannibalized due to a
lack of spares; now only a few are left.
Pakistan has been traumatized by what it
sees as a US betrayal in reneging on a contract to
supply about 70 F-16s in the late 1980s. US
officials say the planes were held up because of
congressional laws that required Pakistan not to
go nuclear, and that Islamabad crossed the line in
the sand, fully aware of the consequences, by
doing just that on May 28, 1998.
Washington has since squared its accounts
with Islamabad by returning (in cash and goods)
the money Pakistan had advanced toward the
purchase of the F-16s. But the episode has scarred
Islamabad, and its military rulers still make
periodic pleas to the US for F-16s.
After Pakistan
tested its nuclear weapons, the US refused
to sell it military hardware. Then came September
11, 2001, and the emergence of Pakistan as an
important ally in the "war on terror", and the ban
on arms sales was lifted. Pakistan's planners then
went for purchases with the mindset that
Pakistan's missile-based rocket program was its
deterrent against any Indian military might, and
India would not dare pursue a conventional war in
the presence of nuclear warheads.
Pakistan's purchases included submarines,
missiles and tanks and other conventional weapons
and hardware. India, meanwhile, changed its plans
to center on the anti-missile Patriot system and
the Mirage 2000-5, or a similar such plane.
"It
does not mean a dead end for Pakistan,"
a military expert told Asia Times Online.
"It is simply the start of a new arms race in
the region, on the same pattern previously between
the US and the former USSR. US arms were superior
in quality and precision, which the former
USSR lacked, but it countered the US arms threat
with a quantity of various types of missiles
of inferior quality, lacking in precision but
well advanced in range.
"Anti-missile
Patriots are not impossible to be developed in
Pakistan, but obviously it could push for new
clandestine operations, like access to the black
market, to get the technology and materials
required. Obviously, it would be a lesser match,
but it would tactically suffice to maintain the
military equilibrium in South Asia," the expert
said.
"There is no end to the measures and
counter-measures, and that is exactly the secret
behind the profitability of the world superpower's
military production complexes," he added.
Syed Saleem Shahzadis Bureau
Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can be
reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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