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War and peace,
Musharraf-style
By Siddharth
Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It is the kind of
paradox that is perhaps unique to India-Pakistan
relations as the two countries try to work out
peace. On the one hand there is always the
possibility of a future war in mind, given the
history of one near-war in 2002 and three more in
the past, while the frissons of goodwill that
emanate whenever the people of the two countries
interact is an indicator of innate sensibilities.
The father, Pakistani President General
Pervez Musharraf, has just announced that the
country he leads has "crossed the minimum nuclear
deterrence level" to make sure that India is in
check, as well keep a domestic audience
sufficiently amused. His son Bilal, who is in
India, is wowing the crowds, especially the women,
with his innate chocolate-boy good looks.
Indeed, the statements have been
a study of contrasts by the father-son duo,
one in Pakistan and the other on a
highly publicized visit to India. On Saturday,
Pakistan test-fired the long-range Shaheen-II missiles
capable of delivering a nuclear payload up to a
distance of 1,900 kilometers, which pretty much
covers any part of India.
Musharraf,
who was in attendance to witness the event, said,
"We have crossed the minimum deterrence level. We
have assessed the threats and quantified the
deterrence level in nuclear and conventional areas and
the test-firing is a big milestone." Experts in
India have warned that a nuclear-missile buildup by
Pakistan and India (which has its own version of
Shaheen missiles called Agni) does not augur well,
with both the nations hurtling toward a "hair
trigger" position, reminiscent of the Cold War era
between the US and the Soviet Union, in case
relations deteriorate.
Bilal, on the other
hand, who is being given the treatment of a
popular film star in India, has shown no signs of
being weighed down by the exigencies of Indo-Pak
relations and the regular verbal saber-rattling
that happens from both sides. Bilal is in India
with most of Musharraf's immediate family to watch
the ongoing cricket series between the two
countries. Musharraf himself is scheduled to be in
New Delhi on April 16-17 to witness a match, in
what is already being described as a mini-summit
in the making, with the top Indian establishment
likely to be in attendance as well.
"I
think that people from India and Pakistan want
that a new era should begin, leaving the past
behind ... there is a sincerity on both the
sides," Bilal has said. In a reference to the
opening of borders and easing of travel
restrictions, Bilal said, "The movement of people
from the two countries should be simplified and
preconceived notions changed."
Bilal has
used the opportunity in India to visit his
father's birthplace (the elder Musharraf was born
in Delhi, while Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh was born in Pakistani Punjab); he has met
with Rahul Gandhi, a member of parliament and son
of Congress Party supremo Sonia Gandhi, in what
has been described as a meeting of the new
generation of the two most powerful families on
both sides of the border. His visit to his
grandmother's alma mater in Lucknow caused a
virtual stampede of girls seeking his audience and
autograph; he has also used his time to catch up
on a Hindi movie and singled out Naseeruddin Shah
as his favorite actor and Kishore Kumar as
favorite singer. Hindi movies are banned by his
father from being screened back home.
Indeed, there is no doubt that Indo-Pak relations
are a study of contrast, with several constituencies
to be pleased and various vested interests
in place. There are the extremist elements
in Pakistan who look at India as a
religious war that has to be won; the military
establishment justifies its pre-eminence through
the supposed threat from India and the terror
networks that thrive on creating a sense on
insecurity and mayhem. Then there are the
ever-growing proponents of peace and economic
cooperation that can benefit both countries. Yet
one is never sure who is on which side and what is
the intent of a statement or a test-firing or the
real target audience in times of audio-visual
media and its immediate impact.
One
is also
uncertain about the game the United States is playing.
News about the US covering up for Pakistan's
dubious role in supplying nuclear material to
Libya is waking up the Indian establishment to
harsh realities about the depths to which the US
is likely to protect India's neighbor, even if
there are verbal utterances of displeasure. Ever
since the peace process began between India and
Pakistan in January last year, the feeling in
India is that the US is keen to play the honest
broker. However, the virtual carte blanche that
the US seems to have given Pakistan is raising the
hackles in several quarters that India should be
careful in its dealings with the US, including
proposals for long-term arms deals that could have
a critical impact on national security.
Several reports have now appeared in the
US media that give graphic details of the
labyrinth of nuclear peddling established by the
"father" of Pakistan's nuclear program, Dr Abdul
Qadeer Khan, that touched Libya, Iran and North
Korea.
According to the New York Times,
the black market run by Khan "was selling not only
technology for enriching nuclear fuel and
blueprints for nuclear weapons, but also some of
the darkest of the bomb makers' arts: the
hard-to-master engineering secrets needed to
fabricate nuclear warheads".
In a rude
awakening to India about the extent of US
prevarication, the Washington Post has reported
that the administration of President George W
Bush conveniently sought to pass on the blame to North
Korea for peddling nuclear secrets to Libya, to
deliver a double whammy: establish North Korea as
a rogue nation and protect Pakistan's interests as
a frontline ally in the "war against terror". The
newspaper said North Korea had supplied uranium
hexafluoride to Pakistan.
The coincidence
of the Shaheen firing has not been unnoticed. It is
perhaps also an attempt by Musharraf to reach out
to the extremist domestic constituency, which is
suspicious that Pakistan's nuclear program may
fall under the control of the US, especially after
expressions of unhappiness over Pakistan's nuclear
program by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in
Islamabad. Emphasizing Pakistan's independent
position, Musharraf said, "The nation's nuclear
capability ... was developed for Pakistan's own
security and will continue to receive the highest
national priority. The capability was here to
stay, will continue to go from strength to
strength and no harm will ever be allowed to come
to it."
All of this, however, has still
not dampened the spirit of peace. Speaking in
parliament on Tuesday, India's foreign minister
commented on Musharraf's impending India visit and
said, "I do not want to get carried away. Just
imagine if there were an Indo-Pak cricket team, we
could defeat all other countries together."
Indeed, nuclear missiles flying,
high-profile visits, cricket matches and games
being played, the US with its own designs for the
region, there is a silver lining yet - at least,
though there is plenty of hot air, no war is happening
on the subcontinent.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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