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SPEAKING
FREELY
Delhi missing the
point
By Aruni Mukherjee
Speaking Freely is an Asia Times
Online feature that allows guest writers to have
their say. Please click here
if you are interested in
contributing.
The
sale of F-16 fighters
to Pakistan by the US should come as no surprise
to India. The deal had already been finalized
in the 1980s, only to be blocked in 1990 by
the US administration because of Pakistan's nuclear ambitions. Last
year, the remaining sanctions on India were
lifted by the government of President George W Bush in view
of the country's growing economic presence in the
world. Similarly, India should have expected
conciliatory moves from the US toward Pakistan
after it literally allowed the US to dictate its
foreign policy since September 11, 2001.
So when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
expressed "great disappointment" at the F-16 deal,
it pointed at another incidence where Indian
diplomacy has failed to foresee a rather obvious
event.
On her recent visit to India, US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, "What
we're trying to do is break out of the notion that
this is a hyphenated relationship somehow, that
anything that happens that's good for Pakistan has
to be bad for India, and vice versa." India's
vehement and open opposition to this deal and the
dejected expression that followed it will only
pour cold water on the country's aspirations not
to be equated with Pakistan in most geopolitical
discussions pertaining to South Asia. India looks
on itself as a rising regional, and possibly
global, economic and military power, yet an
indifferent attitude to this deal would have gone
a longer way to bolster that image than the
sniffles of a child who didn't get his cookie.
There are reasons to believe that this
deal would do little to alter the strategic
balance in the subcontinent. First, as a US
State Department official put it, India had been
contemplating a "very large" purchase of fighters
long before this deal was sanctioned. Models in
the race include French Mirage 2000-5s, Swedish
JAS-39 Gripens and Russian MiG-29s. Thanks to the
recent announcement by the US, India can also add
F-16s and F-18s to this list.
Lockheed Martin has also gone a step beyond and
confirmed that it will be willing to upgrade the F-16s
to Block 70 levels, especially catering to
the particular needs of India, very much as the
Russians did with the Su-30. Moreover, even
without this new purchase, India already operates
fighters at par with if not superior to the F-16 Block
52 being offered to Pakistan, the MiG-29, Mirage
2000 and Su-30MKI. It does not appear that a few
dozen F-16s will change the entire dimension in
favor of Pakistan.
Second, although India has constantly denied that it wants
to get sapped into an arms race, indulging in
one would not necessarily be bad for the long-term
interests of the country. After all, one of the reasons
the Soviet economy never reached the levels of the
US was the massive amount it spent on
military hardware. India can do the same - draw
Pakistan into an arms race by making some big
purchases. Owing to nationalist pressures, Islamabad will
be forced to do what it can to match India's
rapidly growing capabilities. The defense-spending ratio
already stands at 5:1 in favor of India - Pakistan
would not feel safe to let it slip further.
Once the Pakistani economy was under
pressure owing to this race, India could push for
economic concessions, such as a South Asian
free-trade area, a policy long torpedoed by Pakistan
owing to fears of Indian competition. With less
money at its disposal to fund infrastructure
projects or invest in the economy to create jobs,
Pakistan may have no choice but to sign a trade
accord and let Indian companies provide jobs to
its economy.
Third, India should remember that "friends
are not permanent, interests are". Pakistan has been favored by the
US for the past half a century or
so for valid strategic reasons. During the Cold War,
it acted as a deterrent to a pro-Soviet India.
During the Afghan war, it helped the US
and the mujahideen throw the Russians out
of the country. After September 11, 2001, President General Pervez Musharraf
went out of his way to help in the
"war on terror". Even after being exposed
to life-threatening attacks by extremists in his country, he
has cooperated with the coalition forces in
whatever way he can. It is still not clear whether
India definitely wants to join the US camp - so
why shouldn't the US have an "insurance" partner
in Pakistan in the region? It makes sense to the
strategists at the Pentagon.
What
India needs to do is make itself more attractive as
a partner than Pakistan. India's obvious
advantage lies in its rapidly growing and very
large economy. India needs to liberalize quicker
and give foreign firms (especially US
firms) incentives to invest in India, beyond software
and information-technology services. A preferential
trade agreement between the US and India would
open up huge avenues for businesses on both sides.
Once India made its presence felt in
the business lobbies in the United States, its weight
as an ally would decisively shift vis-a-vis
Pakistan. To put things in context, US-India
trade in 2003-04 hovered around the US$20
billion figure, compared with a nearly $300 billion figure
for US-China trade. The US attitude toward Taiwan
has been affected directly as a result. These days
the Pentagon often issues restraining calls on
Taiwan, and is surprisingly quiet on China's harsh
labor regulations since US companies might be
affected as a result. A booming bilateral trade
between India and the US would not only be
beneficial for a large number of Indians, but would also
help the country establish itself as a firm US
ally in the region, and ensure US support or
neutrality in any future disputes with Pakistan.
As has so often been the case, the Indian
media are sounding alarm bells even before the
planes have been transferred to Pakistan. They
will probably be delivered in batches, with the
entire fleet being handed over probably within the
next five years or so. Also, what is evident is
that amid all this apparent disappointment and
protest, there remains an inferiority complex in
the Indian press. What India needs to do is stop
crying over spillled milk, and make the most of the
good options it has with Uncle Sam.
Aruni Mukherjee is based at the
University of Warwick, United Kingdom, and takes a
deep interest in the political economy of the
Indian subcontinent. He is originally from
Kolkata, India.
(Copyright Aruni
Mukherjee, 2005)
Speaking Freely
is an Asia Times Online feature that allows guest
writers to have their say. Please click here
if you are interested in
contributing. |
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