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Pakistan approaches boiling
point
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
and Masood Anwar
KARACHI - On the face of it,
the post-September 11 era sees Pakistan
re-established in the world community, nurturing
friendly relations with India, and enjoying
political stability in the shape of 
President General Pervez
Musharraf's grip on power, with the economy steady.
Appearances can be deceptive, though:
Pakistan's economic development is "asset
inflation" which could burst like a bubble, while
serious fissures exist on the socio-political
front.
A very powerful "Million March" in
Karachi recently, organized by the Muttahida
Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), a coalition of six
religious-political parties that heads the
opposition in the country, was the first punch,
and yielded instant results. Musharraf and Prime
Minister Shaukat Aziz abruptly caved in to a key
MMA demand that a person's religion be included in his
or her passport.
This
had previously been the case - for
instance, people were identified as Muslim,
Christian, Jew or Qadyani - but new
computer-readable passports dropped the religious
tag, and Musharraf was adamant it would not be
reinstated. The march made him change his mind.
After Karachi, other "Million Marches"
in Quetta, Peshawar and Lahore shattered
the opposition's political lull. A series
of countrywide strikes has already begun, with
the climax being a call for a general strike this
Wednesday.
The MMA's president, Qazi Hussain
Ahmed, has already vowed that after the April 2
strike, the MMA will march on the capital
Islamabad and lay siege to it.
This has
sent shivers down the spines of those in the
corridors of power: Qazi Hussain Ahmed has played
this card with devastating results twice before.
On the first occasion he mobilized thousands of
Jamaat-i-Islami workers against the Nawaz Sharif
government in 1993. It fell within a few weeks. He
repeated this move in 1996, this time bringing
down the administration of Benazir Bhutto.
The authorities now fear that the MMA's
renewed political activism will mobilize religious
forces in the country.
Over the past few
years, since Musharraf signed on to the "war
on terror", jihadi activists have had a hard time
of it. They feel betrayed by the religious
leadership, which has not supported them, notably
in the tribal areas of Waziristan, where the
jihadis tried to oppose military efforts to root
out Taliban and foreign militants.
According to most estimates, more than 50,000
persons are committed to jihadi movements in
Pakistan. However, deprived of a political
platform and a common strategy, they are
ineffective. Now, if they can align with the
robust new religious-political movement of the
MMA, they will get a new life.
Conducive environment
The MMA's agitation, with the huge crowds it
can mobilize against Musharraf, is bolstered by every
rise in prices, the deteriorating law-and-order situation
across the country, and widespread opposition to
military operations, especially in Balochistan
against tribespeople there.
The US State Department's
recent report "Supporting Human Rights
and Democracy: The US Record 2004-2005" has
added salt to the wounds. Parts of the report are
blunt. They state that the Pakistani military remains heavily
engaged in politics, the government's human-rights
record remains poor, and political
parties are generally weak, with undemocratic
institutions centered on personalities instead of
policies. The judiciary also came in for criticism
as being "corrupt, inefficient and malleable to
political pressure". It also said "politically
motivated prosecutions of opposition figures
continue, as do concerns that opposition leaders
or their parties are not always allowed to
function freely ... Security forces have committed
numerous human-rights abuses, including
extrajudicial killings and torture. Societal
discrimination and violence against women and
religious minorities persist."
An
economic bomb
In addition to the problems
outlined above, Musharraf faces a potential killer
blow in the economy. Despite the government's
presentation of rosy figures, many feel this is a
game of smoke and mirrors.
According to a report of the State Bank of Pakistan
(SBP) - the central bank - the country had liquid
reserves of US$12.860 billion ($10.055 billion
with the SBP and $2.805 billion with other banks)
on March 19. At the end of February, the trade
deficit was $2.45 billion and the deferred bill
for imported oil was $2.75 billion.
Moreover, the government
has borrowed money to the tune of Rs879 billion
($14.7 billion) through Pakistan Investment Bonds
(PIBs) against the surety of foreign reserves. Euro
bonds worth 500 million euros ($648 million) issued
with an interest rate of 6.45% mature in June -
and an extra 32.5 million euros in interest. Special
US bonds worth $500 million are also
approaching maturity.This list does not include the
foreign-currency account worth $3.437 billion, which is
open to the demands of account holders.
This all adds up to $9.832 billion in
potential liabilities. This does not include other
liabilities, such as recently issued Islamic bonds
and payment of installments to Boeing for the
procurement of 777s.
The country thus
does not have the foreign-exchange reserves that would
be needed should sanctions be imposed on the
country - always a possibility should Pakistan
suddenly fall out of favor with the US, the World
Bank or the International Monetary Fund. (How
Pakistan will meet the multibillion-dollar bill for
promised F-16s from the United States is another matter.)
Political and economic realities are
pushing Musharraf further and further into a
corner.
Syed Saleem Shahzadis
Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times Online. He can
be reached at saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
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