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India talks up axis against
China
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It is the kind of statement
unexpected just prior to the arrival of Chinese
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in India on Saturday. Addressing
India's top army brass, Defense Minister
Pranab Mukherjee said on Wednesday that
India must keep an eye on China's modernization of
its armed forces.
Mukherjee's assertions
are a clear reflection of the kind of geopolitical
turns that politics of the Asian region may take
in the near future, with the US egging on India to
rein in the growing influence of China.
"A
watch has to be kept on Chinese infrastructure in
Tibet and its technological and military
modernization program and the growth of its navy,"
the defense minister said. He observed that India
had been keeping an eye on the rapid growth of the
Chinese navy, and its expected entry into the
Indian Ocean region within a decade will introduce
a new military factor into the Indian
neighborhood. "The Chinese growth is being watched
by various powers ... We must be alive to these
changes and their implications on our strategy,"
Mukherjee said.
It has not been lost to
observers that Mukherjee, in his same speech, was
happy about India's relations with the US. "With
the US, we have made progress in expanding the
space for understanding of our security concerns
and for defense cooperation. US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice's recent visit has opened new
perspectives," he said.
Significantly, Mukherjee's statements came when Wen was
in Pakistan meeting with President General
Pervez Musharraf. The two signed a treaty of
friendship. Though there is not much new to say, the
treaty for the first time defines the
strong five-decade-old relationship between the
two countries, including military exchange.
Coinciding with the Wen visit, Pakistan launched its
joint production with China of the JF-17
fighter aircraft, a project that was initiated because of the hitherto
ban on F-16 fighters by the US. Wen also
spoke of joint nuclear energy production, making
it apparent that China would do unto Pakistan what
the US is seeking with India.
This is,
however, not to rule out the importance of
Sino-Indian relations, which have grown in leaps
and bounds on the back of trade. It is another
matter that business relations between the two
countries have happened pretty much independent of
government intervention.
While the two
sides have been pragmatic enough to set aside
important differences, such as boundary issues, in
order to promote business, it goes without saying
that India will always keep a keen eye on China,
even if to keep the US happy. As Wen said in an
address in Pakistan, the economic and trade
relations between China and Pakistan did not match
their political and strategic relationship. The
situation is the opposite in the case of India and
China.
US-India in the Chinese
context
Indeed, there has been
considerable rethinking within the Indian
establishment about developments in Indo-US
relations consequent to the visit of Rice, as well
as the offer by President George W Bush to deepen
strategic relations with India. Over the past
weeks, as the import of the US offer has sunk in,
experts and well as those in the establishment
have been talking a different tune, even as India
has ordered a cache of arms from countries other
than US, to signal its irritation.
The engagement that the US is seeking from India
goes much beyond just arms supplies: that offer
has also been made to Pakistan. The US is looking
to India to deepen economic relations, nuclear-energy
cooperation, arms production as well as procure
contracts for the estimated arms purchases by
India to the tune of US$12 billion over the next
few years that will include fighter jets,
submarines, tanks and technological advancements.
The US has opened arms supplies
to India, including the much-talked-about F-16 fighter jets
that have been offered to Pakistan as well. India
has been miffed at the US for removing a 15-year
ban on the supply of fighter jets to Pakistan. It
is clear now that India missed the wood for the
trees, a phrase used by Shekhar Gupta, editor of
the Indian Express, in his column recently.
Gupta argues that the US wants to engage
India and move beyond the traditional hyphenation
of US-India-Pakistan relations, and is looking at
India as a strategic partner to fend off China.
The US is seeking India beyond the axis of Cold
War nations wherein India was seen to be allied
closely with the former Soviet Union. This point
is further emphasized by the fact that the US is
strongly opposing the lifting of the arms embargo
on China by the European Union, especially in
light of the rising tensions between Taiwan and
China.
Indeed, after an initial reaction
of "disappointment", there has been a perceptible
turnaround by India to the offer by US that
includes cooperation in nuclear energy and joint
production of military hardware. Mukherjee's clear
enunciation of the thinking of the Indian
establishment re-emphasized the perceptible
turnaround made by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh after the US offered arms to Pakistan. After
his initial reaction of "disappointment", Manmohan
said, "We have said publicly about the F-16s issue
at a time when we are engaged in peace talks [with
Pakistan]. I am disappointed but we have to move
forward and resolve outstanding issues."
However, he added, "India needs the strong
support of the world community, including the US,
to emerge as a major world power." India and
Pakistan must devote more time and money for the
betterment of their people, he said, making it
apparent that it would not be wise for India to
take a stand that completely counters the US. "Our
common enemy is poverty, ignorance and disease. We
should devote all our resources to fighting
poverty. Our generation has an obligation to the
future," he said.
In the past, the US has
required Pakistan, whether it be to take on Soviet
ambitions in Afghanistan or the post-September 11,
2001, "war on terror". It still does need Pakistan for
support against Iran, as well as to nab cadres of
al-Qaeda and the elusive big fish, Osama bin
Laden. However, there is a growing feeling of
disenchantment with Pakistan as well, given its
record in buttressing terror and peddling nuclear
secrets. Importantly, Pakistan's strong military
dealings with China are quite well known, a facet
that the US can never be comfortable with.
The reaffirmation of US interest in India
being independent of Pakistan is further
buttressed by the fact that the peace process
between the two countries is firmly in place and
has built a momentum independent of the overtures
that the US is making. Musharraf is due to arrive
in India in a few days to witness a cricket match.
He will meet up with Manmohan, with the meeting
being widely seen as a further firming-up of the
peace process that has received a major fillip due
to the agreement to initiate the bus service
between Indian and Pakistan Kashmir, despite
threats of terror.
From India's point of
view, the supply of arms to Pakistan will hardly
tilt the balance of power with India's
conventional military superiority clearly
established. At the same time, the chances of the
two countries going to war are quite remote.
The US, by seeking out India, is clearly
looking beyond Indo-Pak relations.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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