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The two faces of Pakistani
terror
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - The rising tempo against
al-Qaeda in Pakistan at the behest of United
States forces is having an impact in India. In the
recent past, the US/Pakistan intelligence agencies
have met with some success in the crackdown that
has reportedly been meticulously planned over the
last six months. Following this month's arrest of
al-Qaeda operative Abu Faraj al-Libbi, the Libyan
national who allegedly masterminded assassination
attempts on Pakistan President General Pervez
Musharraf in 2003, reports from Pakistan suggest
US and Pakistani forces have extracted information
from him on other al-Qaeda members, as well as
Osama bin Laden. Several US papers have reported
the killing of al-Qaeda figure Haithan al-Yemeni
by a missile from a Central Intelligence
Agency-operated unmanned aerial drone along the
Pakistan-Afghanistan border, though official
confirmation still remains hazy.
But even as US/Pakistani forces appear
to be making some headway in the "war
on terror", Indian Kashmir, a cauldron of terrorist activities,
has begun to simmer. A string of bomb
attacks have rocked Kashmir in the past few weeks, the
worst being an attack last week on school children in the heart
of Srinagar that left two dead and more than 20
children among 50 injured. Then, on Friday, a bomb
wrapped as a gift exploded in a home in south
Srinagar killing three family members. Last month,
passengers of the India-Pakistan peace bus
connecting Indian and Pakistan Kashmir experienced
a close call when terrorists struck tourist
quarters in the heart of Srinagar, where they were
staying, despite heavy security. The police in New
Delhi, meanwhile, arrested suspected
Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists that were allegedly
planning a series of bomb attacks in the capital.
There are two lines of thought that follow
the attacks in India: one is that the terrorists
on the run in the rest of Pakistan are desperate
to make a mark elsewhere, with Indian Kashmir
providing a convenient field of operation. Second,
the attacks are actually being masterminded by the
Pakistan army, at the behest of the top powers,
while keeping an extensive public relations
exercise in place through the peace process with
India. This keeps the hard sell to the extremists
within Pakistan in place that all is being done to
protect Muslim rights in Kashmir, while making the
business of improved India-Pakistan relations
sinister.
Some observers see a connection
between the attacks in India: whenever the
incumbent Pakistani establishment is accused of
kowtowing to the US in Pakistan, a situation made
worse by the infamous "dog" cartoon (see below),
terror attacks in the name of "freedom struggle"
rear their ugly head in India. Some call it an
age-old strategy - assuaging seething
fundamentalist feelings due to US operations on
the western borders by orchestrating deadly
attacks in India on the eastern front.
Events in the recent past have only
fueled anti-US sentiment. A survey carried out by
Online, a Pakistani-based news agency, revealed
hurt national pride following the depiction of
Pakistan as the US's pet dog in The Washington
Times after the killing of Abu Faraj. Though the
paper has since apologized, people cutting across
class divides have demanded that the government
quit supporting the US in its "war against
terrorism".
As part of the typical
balancing act, Musharraf has patted himself on the
back for taking on al-Qaeda, while on the same
note saying that a solution in Kashmir is still
far off. "We have broken [al-Qaeda's] back. They
cease to exist as a cohesive, homogenous body
under good command and control, vertical and
horizontal," he said. But in the same interview,
Musharraf was quoted: "Soft borders are not a
solution to the Kashmir dispute, but could be a
step towards confidence building between Pakistan
and India."
Indeed, Indian security
forces have been warning of attacks during summer
months, when the snow melts and infiltration from
across the border is at its highest. Security
officials have been saying that a soft border with
Pakistan in Kashmir has to be a careful and
calibrated exercise, after the opening of borders due to
the India-Pakistan bus service in Kashmir. They
caution that any success in checking terror
activities in Indian Kashmir is due to strict
vigil by security forces as well as the
implementation by India of the fencing along the
Line of Control that separates Indian and
Pakistani Kashmir. This has resulted in a marked
decline in the levels of infiltration of armed
militants. Infiltration levels are usually down
during the winter months (November-February) due
to heavy snowfall but pick up after April once the
snow melts. Officials fear the period of lull is
over.
According to a senior official of
the Indian intelligence bureau, "While there is no
gainsaying the fact that the India-Pakistan peace
process must proceed with the bus service [that
connects Srinagar and Muzzaffarabad], a major step
forward, the government has to take care to ensure
that the intelligence structure in Kashmir is
strengthened once the physical barriers to entry
are reduced."
Writing in the Indian
Express, Arun Shourie, former government minister
and journalist, said: "Sectarian terrorists in
Pakistan are thriving in an atmosphere of
religious intolerance for which its military
government is largely to blame. Musharraf has
repeatedly pledged that he would eradicate
religious extremism and sectarianism and transform
Pakistan into a moderate Muslim state. In the
interests of retaining power, he has done the
opposite ... Instead of empowering liberal,
democratic voices, the government has co-opted the
religious right and continues to rely on it to
counter civilian opposition ..."
But, as
usual, for every argument that Musharraf should be
castigated there are others that say he should
be given a long rope and has indeed had a "change
of heart", as expressed by him during his recent
visit to India. Noted commentator Pratap Bhanu Mehta,
also writing in the Indian Express, said:
"Support for Pakistan inside Kashmir is at its
lowest. The Americans will cut Pakistan a lot of
slack, but their fundamental perceptions about
terrorism have changed. The extent of militant
Islam in Pakistan is always difficult to gauge,
but there are reasons to think that its influence
is exaggerated. As a recent World Bank paper by
Jishnu Das shows with credible data,
madrassas still account for less than 1%
of school enrollment in Pakistan. This is not to
deny that Pakistan has the capacity for serious
cross-border mischief, but it is far from being a
society that will go lock, stock and barrel over
to the mullahs. If anything, greater Islamization
will produce more serious threats within Pakistan
and intensify their own internal conflicts. And
civil society trends seem to be shifting as well."
However, in the mayhem created by
the terror attacks, there is a cause for cheer. It
is the first time in years that credible and
young political voices in the form of Omar
Abdullah (National Conference), Mehbooba Mufti
(Peoples Democratic Party) and Mirwaiz Umer Farooq
(moderate faction of the Hurriyat party) have
emerged. These leaders, despite belonging to rival
political parties, speak in one voice about the
betterment of the Kashmiri people, who have now begun
to trust them.
The
people of Kashmir tired of violence have also risen in one
voice against the attack on children. Last Friday,
hundreds of school children marched through
Srinagar, chanting slogans and holding placards
saying "we are flowers of a garden, allow us to
bloom" to protest against the bomb attack. Several
similar spontaneous rallies have taken place
across Kashmir, New Delhi and the rest of the
country.
There has been some criticism of
the Manmohan Singh government in New Delhi, caught
in the mire of handling coalition politics. Like
past dispensations, the approach of the Manmohan
government toward Kashmir has been episodic, with
periods of disinterest and lull in tackling the
problems of the people who have to be roped into
the path of progress to definitively shun
terrorism. Everybody agrees that the solution in
Kashmir relates to tourism - a money spinner for
the region - and development, which can only come
with peace. The issues have to be addressed on a
continuous basis.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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