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China and India fall into
step
By Francesco Sisci
BEIJING - Depending on one's geostrategic
outlook, the dream, or nightmare, of a China-India
axis - complete with 2.4 billion people - is a
step closer with the recent announcement that the
two countries will for the first time ever hold
joint military maneuvers.
The head of the
Indian army, General Joginder Jaswant Singh, after
meeting with his visiting Chinese counterpart,
General Liang Guanglie, said that the armies were
going to hold joint counter-terrorism and
peacekeeping training programs. Singh said that
border tensions between the two countries (over
which they went to war in 1962) had eased so much
that young soldiers from both armies were already
going on joint mountaineering expeditions, playing
volleyball and even sharing meals on their remote
Himalayan joint border area.
Ties between
the two Asian giants have steadily improved over
the past seven years, after reaching a low in 1998
when India tested its nuclear bomb and blamed the
"China threat" for the need to have one. In a
breakthrough last month, Chinese Prime Minister
Wen Jiabao visited India, and the two sides agreed
on a roadmap to settle their border row. On that
occasion, Wen expressed China's support for
India's bid for a permanent seat on the United
Nations Security Council. Meanwhile, bilateral
trade (China has a deficit with India) increased
to US$13.6 billion last year, from $1.9 billion in
1999-2000.
Chinese papers at the time of
Wen's visit reported that troops from the two
countries still occasionally had stand-offs when
they strayed across their common 3,500-kilometer
Himalayan frontier, but the papers stressed that
Singh dismissed such incidents as "nothing
abnormal", adding that they were a result of
"differences in perception" between the two sides
of where the frontier lay. "The [military]
confidence-building measures will result in
reducing tension and will also result in [fewer]
people [being] deployed along the borders," Singh
said. With the difficulties in solving frontier
problems being addressed, a new era has begun.
"The momentum given by the leaders of our two
countries is being enhanced further by the two
militaries," Singh said.
Indian army
officers visited China last year to witness
military exercises, and Chinese officers were
invited to see maneuvers by the Indian army and
air force this year. During Liang's talks in
Delhi, the two sides agreed that their navies
would also hold joint exercises off the Indian
coast, the second such drill after the two fleets
conducted maneuvers off Shanghai in 2003.
Troubled path
China's ties with
India - and Pakistan - were thrown into sharp
relief when Delhi started its nuclear tests.
Beijing tried in vain to prevent Pakistan from
responding in kind, but to no avail - Islamabad
tested one of its own nuclear devices soon after
India did. Pakistan was under pressure from
domestic public opinion, which was strongly
anti-Indian. In 1999, things looked even worse for
China as Pakistan started a violent clash with
India at Kargil in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The incident soon appeared to be spinning out of
control, but was defused following the diplomatic
intervention of the US.
China breathed
easier as its priority is to maintain a peaceful
environment so that its economic juggernaut can
push on at full steam for the next 30 years. But
alarm bells had already started to ring over
Pakistan, its longstanding ally. These concerns
were heightened following September 11, when it
became clear that parts of Pakistan's secret
services were straddling many fences, from
supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan to
destabilizing the Chinese region of Xinjiang and
Indian-administered Kashmir. Beijing does not
easily turn its back on friends, especially
long-term ones. But by the beginning of the
millennium it was clear in Beijing that China's
stability on the southern border could not be
guaranteed by Pakistan alone, partially undermined
as it was by Islamic fundamentalist forces; it had
to rely on India as well.
Furthermore,
given her size, India was the only country that
could effectively contain China, so Beijing had to
move closer to its neighbor to pre-empt such a
hostile strategy. In 1998, when then prime
minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wrote to US
president Bill Clinton to explain that the Indian
nuclear tests were necessary because China had to
be deterred, that message was felt as an insult in
Beijing. But it could also be read another way: if
China warmed to India, India would feel safer, and
China would not be threatened by India.
On
the Indian side, a mix of envy and admiration was
growing for the giant northern neighbor. China's
economic success led more Indians to look to the
"Chinese model" , which a senior Indian diplomat
succinctly described as "more real liberalization
and less liberal formalities". The seeds for the
trade boom were in place.
On the political
front, New Delhi started paying more attention to
China's concerns over the exiled Tibetan
government in India, so much so that the exiles
have been thinking of moving to the US. And on
security issues, both sides share a growing
concern over destabilizing forces in Pakistan -
note that the announced military exercises include
counter-terrorism.
Economy and security
are the two fundamental planks on which China's
policies are based, but there is another one:
China is perceived by some observers to be very
gradually moving towards a process of
democratization, and the only example of a
functioning democracy in a very large country is
India. India, moreover, has another attractive
point for the Chinese Communist Party: for over 50
years, without major breaches since independence
in 1947, India has basically been ruled by one
party, the Congress Party.
This cuddling
up between China and India has been going on for
some time, yet the US has not uttered a word
against it. On the contrary, Washington seems to
encourage it. This could show that the US has
truly peaceful intentions for stability in Asia,
and it could also leave room for a bolder,
longer-term world picture. In the early 1990s,
then Russian premier Andrei Primakov envisioned a
kind of triple alliance between Russia, China and
India. The idea never took off, partly because
Russia, which was supposed to be the driving
force, fell into very bad economic and political
shape. Tacit US acceptance of warmer China-India
ties suggests that the idea of a "triple alliance"
is being revived - with the US replacing Russia.
This might be less strange than it sounds.
Last month, Taiwanese opposition leaders
Lien Chan and James Soong (both from the
anti-independence camp) visited China and appeared
touched by the "royal" welcome they received.
China wanted to prove to the Taiwanese domestic
audience its commitment to peaceful reunification,
while taking clear sides in Taiwan's internal
political competition.
But it was also a
message to the US. Lien and Soong have always been
America's strongest allies in Asia. They were
supported and groomed by the US, and the US (which
has always formally opposed Taiwan independence)
would naturally trust them more than the ruling
pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP). Moreover, the DPP has on a number of
occasions over the past few years put the US on
the spot by raising tensions in the Taiwan Strait
at a time when Washington has been involved in the
"war on terrorism" and did not want to see any new
flash points on the map.
On his return
from China, Lien and Soong would have said a few
good words in China's favor to their American
friends. This positive climate could explain the
favorable US response, or at least non-hostility,
to China-India rapprochement.
Arguably,
the episode illustrates Chinese President Hu
Jintao's boldness, dexterity and ability to "think
out the box". In less than a month, emerging from
the international furor caused by Beijing passing
an anti-secession law, Hu has significantly
improved relations first with Taiwan and now with
India, and in both cases made positive gestures
towards the US.
Hu can also say to his
growing restive domestic audience that he is no
"softie", as he has proved by not bending over
backwards to accommodate Japan. Last week, he
abruptly recalled Vice Prime Minister Wu Yi from
Tokyo, where she had been sent to mend fences with
Japan over plummeting relations, when it became
apparent that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi was not giving in on his controversial
visits to the Yasukuni Shrine for Japanese war
dead. This balance between tough, bold and
unconventional perhaps provides the real formula
for Hu's administration.
Francesco
Sisci, based in Beijing, is Asia Editor for
the daily La Stampa.
(Copyright 2005
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