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Hot on the trail of
al-Qaeda
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
KARACHI - The high-profile arrests of
al-Qaeda operatives in Pakistan, the most recent
being Abu Faraj al-Libbi, have led to intense
speculation that the really big names could be
next: Tahir Yuldash of the Islamic Movement of
Uzbekistan, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and the biggest
catch of them all, Osama bin Laden.
But
Asia Times Online investigations reveal that these
top figures in the international struggle against
the US are not together in one place, and remain a
step ahead of their pursuers.
Pakistani intelligence
agencies indicate that Shabkadar (a town near
Peshawar in Pakistan's North West Frontier
province), and Bajur and Mohmand agencies (two
federally administered tribal 
areas) have been under close surveillance for more
than a month as strong information emerged about
bin Laden being in the vicinity, or in adjoining
areas - Nanghar and Nooristan - across the border
in Afghanistan.
In Shabkadar and
Bajur especially, the Pakistani military
increased its presence and conducted exhaustive search operations.
These activities did not meet with any resistance
as the local tribals, though sympathetic to Arab fighters, would
not put themselves in a conflict situation with
the Pakistani army. (This in stark contrast with
the South and North Waziristan tribal areas, where
similar military intervention has met with fierce
and bloody resistance.) Al-Qaeda sympathizers,
nevertheless, might have spread the word in
advance of the operations.
According to analysis
based on information extracted from detainees
and ground checks in the Pakistani tribal areas,
bin Laden was likely recently in Nooristan in
Afghanistan for meetings with close aides. Nooristan
is a rugged, remote mountainous region where
the population is Salafi. The area was previously
the stronghold of a famous commander of
the anti-Soviet resistance of the 1980s, Abdul
Aziz Nooristani, who later also fought in Bosnia.
Veteran Afghan mujahideen leader and former Afghan
premier Gulbuddin Hekmatyar also dwelled in
Nooristan for some time after returning from exile
in Iran in 2002.
Ever elusive
That al-Qaeda's top members remain on
the loose can in some ways be attributed to
the training cadres receive. They are well versed
in withstanding interrogation and in engaging
their interrogators by appealing to their
religious sentiments - at least in the short term.
This buys other members vital time to change their
positions, an intelligence operator told Asia
Times Online.
Meanwhile, there have been
reports that Yuldash was sighted in the Afghan
region of Birmal, where he is believed to have
grouped dozens of guerrilla fighters of Chinese,
Pakistani, Afghan, Uzbek, Chechen and Arab origin.
They have been engaged in acts of sabotage in
Paktika province, notably a recent attack on Argon
in which two US soldiers were killed. US convoys
and their military bases are constant targets.
Some of the world's most difficult
terrain starts at Argon and continues to Birmal and
then Shawal (part of which is in Afghanistan and
part in Pakistan). It is wholly pro-Taliban.
Guerrillas carry out attacks and then melt into the
local population, either in Birmal or in the
thick forests of North Waziristan across the border.
Recent US bombing in North Waziristan followed
guerrillas being chased by US gunships and fighter
aircraft - some stray bombs and missiles landed in
Pakistani territory.
Zawahiri,
bin Laden's deputy, has also reportedly been seen
in different places in the past few weeks,
from Zabul (Afghanistan) to South Waziristan.
Both foreign and Pakistani intelligence agencies
conclude that the frequent sightings indicate that
Zawahiri is acting as the main go-between among Arab, Uzbek,
Chechen, Pakistani and Taliban fighters in
Afghanistan.
These intelligence
agencies believe that Khost, Paktika, Paktia and Zabul
will emerge as the key hotbeds of the
Afghan resistance. About a dozen murders in and
around South Waziristan of pro-government tribal
leaders indicate that the nerve center is again near
South Waziristan.
Syed Saleem
Shahzad, Bureau Chief, Pakistan, Asia Times
Online. He can be reached at
saleem_shahzad2002@yahoo.com
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All
rights reserved. Please contact us for information
on sales, syndication and republishing.) |
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