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US spins the UN
merry-go-round
By Siddharth
Srivastava
NEW DELHI - The prospects of UN
reform have unexpectedly taken a new momentum,
with the US administration saying it will support
the addition of two new permanent members to the
UN Security Council (UNSC). According to a senior
official in the George W Bush administration, of
the two new members Washington will back, one will
be Japan and the other will be from the developing
world - either Brazil or India, with the prospects
of India considerably higher, given the criterion
of selection.
Nicholas Burns, under
secretary of state for political affairs, in
making the announcement, also said that when the
US introduced its proposal next week at the United
Nations, it would oppose offering veto power to
any new permanent members.
If the US does
back India, it will be the first time, in the face
of Pakistan's resistance against any such move.
The situation further muddies the water for China,
which has backed India in the past but is dead set
against Japan entering the UNSC. Of the nations
bidding for permanent membership on the council -
Germany, Japan, India and Brazil - the US has
endorsed Japan, emphasizing that the country gives
more money to the world body than current members
Britain, France, Russia and China put together.
The US opposes Germany. Its refusal to back
Berlin's bid is a rebuff to a major European ally.
Experts in India say the criteria for
expansion the US is likely to choose - population,
contributions to the UN, peacekeeping operations,
democratic credentials and economic status - will
favor India. New Delhi will probe the issue
further when Burns arrives here next week. He will
likely further elucidate US views when he meets
Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran. Burns will be in
New Delhi to set the ground for Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh's visit to Washington next month,
which will take a new dimension should the US
announce its support for India.
It may be
recalled that Germany, Japan, India and Brazil
(referred to as the G-4 nations) recently offered
a formula in their bid to become permanent members
of the UNSC. They proposed forgoing the veto power
bestowed on the current five permanent members for
at least 15 years. A draft re-asserts the earlier
G-4 position, calling for the inclusion of six
permanent members and four non-permanent members
to the UNSC's existing strength, with the added
provision that veto powers will not be exercised
for 15 years.
However, even such a
truncated offer did not find backers, given the
geostrategic politics at play. In a conference
call, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told
foreign ministers from the permanent members that
the US wanted to postpone this month's vote,
possibly until after the UN summit scheduled for
September. Rice also said the US needed more time
to sort out the consequences of a larger Security
Council for the global balance of power.
Beijing dismissed the new plan as
"immature", stressing that "a big divergence still
exists on UNSC reforms". The rival formation,
called "Uniting for Consensus" that is led by
Italy, Pakistan and Mexico, will not give in
easily.
To further complicate matters,
Russia sided with China and wants to maintain the
status quo, fearing a reduction of its power.
France broke with the rest of the permanent
members, putting its weight behind Germany by
co-sponsoring the G-4 resolution. Britain supports
the resolution but has not decided whether to
sponsor it.
Some viewed the new formula on
veto power as a major compromise by the G-4
nations. On the other hand, the formulations are
also a reflection of a more pragmatic approach,
given the deliberations and delays that have
marked discussions on UN reforms so far. As
matters stand, and emphasized by UN Secretary
General Kofi Annan during his recent visit to
India, the question of conceding veto powers to
the permanent Security Council members remains a
long shot. Annan was categorical on veto rights.
He said many wanted to remove the exclusive rights
of the five permanent members - the United States,
Russia, China, Britain and France - but it was not
possible to do so; therefore, the status quo had
to be kept.
Annan recommended
restructuring the UNSC to make the council better
reflect new "political realities" and address the
fresh security threats in a world that has evolved
since the organization's formation 60 years ago.
He expressed a preference for consensus, but if
arguments threatened to delay action, he said, the
matter should be put to a vote so that world
leaders can decide in September.
With the
latest US pronouncements, the issue of UN reforms
has again taken center stage. There are reasons
for the US to support India, one of them being the
push and shove that has marked recent efforts by
China and the US to gain India's favor. The US
sees India as a future global power in the region
that can countervail the growing influence of
China, which in turn does not want the US to
exercise too much hold over India. While the US
has usually pitched Pakistan against India in the
past, China is too formidable a nation for
Pakistan to challenge in any way. The US has also
never been comfortable with the military exchanges
that Pakistan and China share.
Politics,
of course, spill over to business, with both the
US and China eyeing India as a huge untapped
market for manufactured goods and arms contracts
(especially the US), as well as a back-end
information-technology powerhouse.
Curiously, the US mind change came when
the country warned India on Thursday that it would
be making a mistake if it went ahead with a gas
pipeline project with Iran and that the US would
continue to discourage such projects (see US plays
spoiler in pipeline accord June
17). According to Stephen G Rademaker, assistant
secretary of state for arms control, Iran could
use the money from the project for illegitimate
purposes.
The important shift in
Washington's views comes after hectic Indian
meetings with US officials including Rice and her
adviser on UN reforms, Shirin Tahir-Kheli. Should
the US support India, it will lend credence to the
US pledge to assist India in becoming a global
power.
The Hindustan Times has quoted US
administration officials as saying that the
country wants to back India and not Brazil and
Germany.
The problem: How could the US
support India without having to back other G-4
nations? India, on the other hand, needed to
stay with the G-4 until the group's framework
resolution received the backing of the UN
general assembly and paved the way for Security
Council expansion. The solution: the US would
set out criteria - developing nation status was
the first - that only India could match. India,
on the other hand, will rework the framework
resolution so that its bid for the seat will not
be hostage to the fortunes of the other members.
A first step was the jettisoning of the demand
for a veto. India has been zealously
pursuing its place in the UNSC, forming part of
Manmohan's priority agenda. Last year he addressed
the United Nations General Assembly and lobbied
for a UNSC seat for India. New Delhi now has
reciprocal arrangements with the three other
nations seeking a permanent seat. India and Japan
have agreed to back each other rather than contest
each other, thus increasing each other's chances.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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