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There's plenty on
the table
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - It is a courtship set to
redefine the geopolitics of the region. One
standing landmark of this relationship will be the
three-day visit next month of Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh to the United States,
where he will likely meet President George W Bush
on July 18. Such are the myriad areas in which
fresh initiatives are being sought - from military
to energy to regional power plays to commerce -
that not a single day goes by without important
functionaries flying in or out of India. This is
likely to continue for the next few weeks, after
which preparations will begin for Bush's India
visit scheduled for later this year.
Sometimes commentators are blamed for
going overboard about a high-profile interaction
between the leaders of two countries. In the end,
the meeting remains a photo opportunity, allows
for the exchange of plenty of well-written
dialogue, good food and a free holiday for the
accompanying entourage. However, the buildup to
Manmohan's US visit has been quite encompassing,
simply because there have never been so many
issues to talk about and iron out, nor fresh
beginnings to be made in Indo-US relations. It has
been fortuitous, too, as it is the height of
summer in India, and the country's political and
bureaucratic class are trying to wrangle visits
abroad to escape the heat.
The list of
Indian dignitaries who have or will head to US
with the express purpose of preparing for the
Manmohan visit is impressive. It includes Defense
Minister Pranab Mukherjee, due to visit next week
to discuss arms deals, including prospects for the
joint production and supply of F-16 fighter jets,
in a US bid to promote business as well as shoring
up India against China; Foreign Minister Natwar
Singh, who met Bush recently, during which the
invitation to Manmohan was extended; Commerce
Minister Kamal Nath, who spoke of Indo-US business
prospects during his visit; and Science and
Technology Minister Kapil Sibal.
US
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was in India
in March to set the ball rolling by talking about
cooperation in nuclear energy and much more. A
host of officials who have been traversing the
distance include India's Foreign Secretary Shyam
Saran, officials of the Planning Commission, and
the bureaucratic who's who. National Security
Adviser M K Narayanan is currently in Washington
to iron out issues related to civil nuclear energy
cooperation. Planning Commission deputy chairman
Montek Singh Ahluwalia, who has been structuring
the "energy dialogue", met with Energy Secretary
Samuel W Bodman recently, which resulted in the
setting up of five working groups, including
nuclear energy. Ronen Sen, India's ambassador to
Washington, has met US National Security Adviser
Stephen Hadley.
The visits have been from
the other side too. US State Department chief
Stephen Krasner is making the rounds of India's
Foreign Ministry to inform about the US policy
focus for the region. Krasner provides the
intellectual thrust to India matters in the Bush
administration. The US under secretary for
political affairs, Nicholas Burns, who is third in
the State Department hierarchy, will be here soon
to give a final shape as well. He is likely to
throw light on US thinking on UN reforms,
including its support for two new permanent
Security Council members without veto powers,
which has been dismissed by some observers as a
dubious attempt to break the unity of G-4 nations
India, Brazil, Japan and Germany.
Recently, top American general
Lieutenant-General Jeffrey B Kohler, who is
director of the Pentagon's Defense Security
Cooperation Agency, gave a detailed presentation
to senior Indian air force and defense officials
on F-16 and F-18 fighter aircraft. Executives of
Lockheed Martin, maker of F-16s, have been
lobbying hard with Indian officials in the face of
competition from French and Russian manufacturers
of similar aircraft. In another related decision,
India is to permanently station defense attaches
at America's central and pacific commands as part
of a rapidly expanding military relationship.
The above meetings are just an indicator
of the parleys that have been happening. At
Manmohan's initiative, India is strategizing to
secure a China-like massive leap in its exports to
the deep US market. In its first meeting recently,
the newly constituted trade and economic relations
committee (TERC), chaired by Manmohan, discussed
the outline of a medium-term strategy to be in
place before the premier's visit to the US. The
aim is to double India's share in the US market
from the present 1% to 2% in the next five years.
India's exports are targeted to reach US$30
billion by 2010 from $13.2 billion in fiscal 2005.
In addition, trade in services and
investment flows will be the focus areas of
India's US strategy. At the TERC meeting, the
premier endorsed this assessment and emphasized
that India must increase the level of economic
interaction with the US. "China's economic
engagement with the US is 10 times that of India.
There is vast potential for increased trade and
investment relations with the US. We must consider
how we can realize this potential," he said.
Recently, India awarded a
multi-billion-dollar aircraft augmentation
exercise of government-owned Air India, to
US-based Boeing, despite stiff competition from
France's Airbus. One of the reasons the contract
went the US way was a personal intervention by
Bush, who spoke to Manmohan.
However,
there are those who have been expressing caution.
Commenting on the new Indo-US dynamics, analyst K
Subhramanyam said: "It should be appreciated that
the US administration will not find it easy to do
a U-turn in its policies towards India. It took
some eight to 10 years after [Henry] Kissinger's
visit to China for American policies towards that
country to become fruitful from the Chinese point
of view. It would not be prudent for India to have
a short list of demands as a litmus test of US
sincerity. The list should be broad enough to
allow flexibility to the US even while testing its
avowed purpose to help India become a world
power."
In a recent article on Indo-US
relations, Ashley Tellis, an India-born American
and former staffer of the National Security
Council, said: "The greatest risk to the new Bush
strategy, therefore, is that the administration
may be unable to realize the policy changes needed
to make increased Indian access to such
technologies possible."
One sticking issue
is the Iran-Pakistan-India oil pipeline that the
US is opposing, given its distrust of Iran over
its nuclear program. Rice expressed misgivings
about the pipeline while she was in India in
March. Earlier this month, the US threatened
sanctions on Pakistan if it went ahead with the
project, disregarding US concerns over Iran's
nuclear plan (US plays
spoiler in pipeline accord June
17). In the new environment of improved
India-Pakistan relations, both the countries are
keen to go ahead with the construction of the
pipeline, which will make the gas transport much
easier and cheaper for India and generate large
revenues for Pakistan.
In an unusual
rebuff to the US, Pakistan has asserted that the
decision on whether or not it will allow the
pipeline to run through its territory will solely
be taken in consideration of its national
interest, thus hinting that it is willing to take
on the US on the issue. All of this makes for an
interesting play of international diplomacy and
arm-twisting, with Iran declaring that a decision
on the pipeline will be made in two weeks.
But apart from the pipeline and issues
regarding UN reforms, the mood is to make things
work. In a speech Burns made to the Transatlantic
Democracy Network Conference in Brussels on May
26, he said: "I think if you look at American
foreign policy worldwide, the greatest change you
will see in the next three or four years is a new
American focus on South Asia, particularly in
establishing a closer strategic partnership with
India ... Our relationship is now at the best
point that it's been since the creation of modern
India in 1947," he noted.
"If you look at
all the trends, there's no question that India is
the rising power in the East. India is the world's
largest democracy. India has so much in common
with the United States and with Europe in what it
wants to achieve in the world and what kind of
world it wants to see," said Burns. "I think
you'll see this as a major focus of our president
and our secretary of state, and it will be the
area of greatest dynamic positive change in
American foreign policy."
Indeed, the fury
of the parleys in the past few months cannot be
dismissed as a flash in the high-octane summer
months in India. There is every indication of the
beginnings of a new threshold.
Siddharth Srivastava is a New
Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright
2005 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.
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