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Defense the best attack for
India
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Several facets are being
highlighted after the 10-year defense agreement
titled the "New Framework for the US-India Defense
Relationship" was signed this week by Indian
Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee and his US
counterpart, Donald Rumsfeld.
India has
always been wary of the US as a reliable partner
in defense, due to its penchant for imposing
sanctions that affect supplies and maintenance.
The offer for joint weapons production, apart from
sales of weapons, sets the tone for a long-term
relationship - though how matters finally pan out
is still quite open. The agreement also sets the
stage for the visit to the US of Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh three weeks from now.
"Changes in the international security
environment have challenged our countries in ways
unforeseen 10 years ago. Today, we agree on a new
framework that builds on past successes, seizes
new opportunities, and charts a course for the
US-India defense relationship for the next 10
years," the signed document said.
The pact
makes India the only country in the world to have
inked a strategic defense partnership with both
the US and Russia, the two Cold War adversaries.
India still relies heavily on arms supplies from
Russia, with which it enjoys long strategic ties.
Russia is understandably upset over India tilting
toward the US and Israel for its defense needs,
but Indian strategic thinking is that Russia no
longer commands the wherewithal to deliver on
India's advanced security requirements. India has
been actively courted by the US in the past couple
of years, with the US for the first time offering
its complete range of weapons systems and
platforms last year.
The
Mukherjee-Rumsfeld agreement is extremely vast in
scope and envisages a broad range of joint
activities, including multinational operations,
strengthening the two militaries to promote
security and defeat terrorism, and strengthening
capacity to take on the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction. A new panel called the
defense procurement and production group has been
established to oversee defense trade, and a joint
working group will carry out a mid-year review to
be overseen by the US-India defense policy group.
In keeping with Indian irritation on the subject,
there is no mention of troop commitment in Iraq,
an issue that was pursued relentlessly by the US
until recently.
It is quite clear the US
has tried to remove some of the doubts India
engenders against the world's most powerful
country as a reliable partner in arms supplies,
given its record of imposing sanctions. Officials
in the US have been quoted as saying that half the
Mukherjee-Rumsfeld agreement focused on
"co-production". "This is Washington's penance for
past sins. It is not US practice to allow
co-production," one official said.
US arms
supply policies are considered extremely fickle,
dependent not just on the White House but also on
a number of committees and sub-committees in the
US Congress. Any one of these could put a spanner
in a deal that is signed by the executive. In the
past, the Indian navy's entire Sea King helicopter
fleet with US components was grounded in the face
of US sanctions.
Experts say the US has
tried to allay such fears by allowing
co-production with India to levels that it has not
committed to any other country. A comment reads:
The Indo-US agreement is also laying
the groundwork for not just weapons platforms
but also the high-tech eyes and ears which make
the US military better than the rest. The idea
is to take defense cooperation beyond just
arms-buying to about how to transform the Indian
military. One strategic area: taking missile
defense beyond even the Patriot-3 ... In March,
US officials had spoken of making India a 21st
century great power and understanding the
military implications of that policy. The
agreement is designed to help put flesh on the
bones of that policy. "America is
putting a lot on the table. India has to decide
how much it is prepared to eat," one observer was
quoted as saying. There are obstacles that the two
sides will have to deal with. As Mukherjee said,
the US needed to put aside the labyrinth of
technology sanctions while New Delhi had to
streamline its complex defense procurement system.
Indeed, the agreement emphasizes the two
lines of thought that dominate the thinking of the
current US administration in its quest to engage
India on defense. One is purely business. On offer
are the much-touted Patriot anti-missile defense
system that tackles aircraft and also tactical and
Cruise missiles, C-130 stretched medium-lift
transport aircraft, P-3C Orion maritime
surveillance planes, and F-16 fighters. The US has
also offered Perry class frigates and Sea Hawk
helicopters, while special operations forces will
be looking at chemical and biological protection
equipment. Reports suggest that consequent to the
Mukherjee visit the US has offered to advance a
proposed briefing on the Patriot PAC-II system.
The US is looking to India to deepen
economic relations, energy cooperation and arms
production, as well as procure contracts for
estimated arms purchases by India to the tune of
US$15 billion over the next few years that will
include fighter jets, submarines, tanks and
technological advancements. The increased military
cooperation between India and the US comes as a
follow up to the Next Step in Strategic
Partnership agreement signed between India and the
US in 2003 that seeks to enhance ties between the
two countries in every sphere including military
exchange.
The second line of thought
within the George W Bush administration is the
role the US expects India to play in the
international security structure. The
neo-conservatives who heavily influence the Bush
administration want India to act as an effective
check on the military and economic might of China.
This period is the first time in the history of
India-US relations that the US is looking toward
India beyond the axis of Cold War nations, wherein
India was seen to be allied closely with the
former Soviet Union. This point is further
emphasized by the fact that the US is strongly
opposing the lifting of the arms embargo on China
by the European Union, especially in light of the
rising tensions between Taiwan and China.
In the past, the US has needed Pakistan,
whether to take on Soviet ambitions in Afghanistan
or the post-September 11 "war on terror". It still
does need Pakistan for support against Iran as
well as to nab cadres of al-Qaeda and the elusive
big fish Osama bin Laden. However, there is a
growing feeling of disenchantment with Pakistan as
well, given its record in buttressing terror on
the eastern front with India and peddling nuclear
secrets. Importantly, Pakistan's strong military
dealings with China are quite well known, a facet
with which the US can never be comfortable.
Indeed, one question being asked is: how
should India leverage the US need to deepen
relations with India, in the context of changing
global equations and the emergence of China, the
US strategic requirement for India having grown,
whether for business (including arms), reigning
China or looking at a partner in Asia that is
going to be more reliable? There is a growing view
here that India now needs to play its cards with
the US very carefully.
It is also not lost
on India that Pakistan has ceaselessly tried to
arm-twist matters in its favor vis-a-vis the US,
whether in the form of aid or arms in return for
its cooperation, however limited it might have
been. The US, too, has been pretty much up front
about promoting its own interests at the cost of
others, one prominent example being its opposition
to the Iran gas pipeline that can benefit both
India and Pakistan.
Among the suggestions
being offered is that India should leverage any
F-16 deal or arms purchase with a more significant
dole out by the US on nuclear energy. This could
include negotiating away any political cost of
outside inspections, safeguards on nuclear
installations as well as ultimately seeking to
dilute the disagreeable portions of the nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty. India could also impress
on the US the need to reform the United Nations as
well as support India's bid for a permanent seat
on the UN Security Council, which is stridently
opposed by Pakistan. Manmohan, in a recent address
to the top brass of the Indian armed forces, said:
"As our defense purchases are large and
substantial, we must leverage them to serve the
largest political and diplomatic ends." This, it
seems, will be the guiding principle of further
relations with the US.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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