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Gunning for peace in South
Asia
By Siddharth Srivastava
NEW DELHI - Two recent defense-related
happenings in India and Pakistan are of note.
Pakistan has test-fired its first cruise missile,
which India believes cannot happen without the
help of the Chinese. Second, there are revelations
of a quiet but steep climb in India-Israel defense
relations, despite stiff competition from Russia,
France and United Kingdom, the traditional big
suppliers to India. The US, which has opened its
arms arsenal to India, is expected to give Israel
stiff competition.
The two developments in
Pakistan and India are inter-linked. They show
that despite confidence-building measures, peace
talks, synergies in the Iran-Pakistan-India oil
pipeline and the recent breakthroughs in
trade-related matters, India and Pakistan continue
to stockpile arms, and suspicions refuse to
subside.
While some of the sources of
defense inputs and material to Pakistan may be
unknown (with indicators pointing towards China
and North Korea), India is not averse to finding
new partners and upgrading its weapons systems.
The Israelis are known for cutting-edge equipment
and fit the bill to modernize the Indian armed
forces.
Many experts believe that Pakistan
wants to quickly upgrade its weapons systems in
response to India's burgeoning defense relations
with Israel and the US, with their state-of-the
art weapon system. The Chinese are more than
willing to oblige as they are never comfortable
with India rising militarily without an effective
check by Pakistan. China's fears have been
compounded by the new-found bonhomie between India
and US.
The share of India-US arms
relations is expected to pick up in the future as
discussions have only begun. In June, a 10-year
defense agreement titled the "New Framework for
the US-India Defense Relationship", was signed
between Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee and his
counterpart Donald Rumsfeld. The US has offered
joint production of weapons, apart from sales,
that sets the tone of a long-term relationship.
India miffed
India is
predictably miffed with Pakistan successfully
test-firing its first cruise missile this week,
joining a select band of nations that have
developed the ground-hugging projectiles.
President General Pervez Musharraf hailed the
launch of the Hatf VII Babur, which is capable of
carrying nuclear warheads, as a "major milestone"
in the country's defense program.
Experts
in India insist that Pakistan does not have the
know-how to build cruise missiles which, unlike
ballistic missiles, do not leave the atmosphere
and are powered and guided throughout their flight
path. In an interview, former chief adviser
(technology) of the Defense Research and
Development Organization, K Santhanam, said:
"China is peddling at least two types of cruise
missiles in the international market ... My
assessment is that this Pakistani missile is of
Chinese origin, with a label change."
The
US-backed Missile Technology Control Regime
prevents the proliferation of missiles capable of
delivering a 500-kilogram payload over distances
of 300 kilometers and more. Although Musharraf
hailed his scientists and engineers who "have once
again done the nation proud by mastering a rare
technology", experts in India believe that
Pakistan's missile program has the secret backing
of China and North Korea. The 750-kilometer range
Shaheen-I and 1,500-kilometer Ghauri-I ballistic
missiles are believed to be derivatives of the
Chinese M-9 and North Korean Nodong missiles
But it is clear that Pakistan's bid to
induct cruise missiles as well as pile up
ballistic missiles is an attempt to balance
India's declared intentions to incorporate a
ballistic missile defense (BMD) system either from
Israel or the US. India is already examining
offers for the American Patriot-3 and Israeli
Arrow-2 anti-ballistic missile systems. The BMD
system can be effectively checked by cruise
missiles.
Apart from inducting the Agni-I
(700-800-kilometer range) and Agni-II
(2,000-kilometer-plus range) ballistic missiles,
India has its own cruise missile BrahMos, with a
300-kilometer strike range. The Indian navy is
already inducting the BrahMos, which is believed
to be similar to the American Tomahawk cruise
missiles widely used in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Curiously, Pakistan did not give any prior
warning to India of the cruise test, despite a
recent agreement between the two to notify each
other before missile tests and to set up a hotline
to prevent an accidental atomic exchange. The deal
only referred to ballistic missiles and not to
cruise missiles, for which there was no agreement,
Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Muhammad
Naeem Khan said.
The India-Israel
nexus
There is reason for Pakistan to
modernize its weapons systems, by any means. It is
estimated that India will purchase arms to the
tune of $15 billion over the next few years. This
will include fighter jets, submarines, tanks and
technological advancements.
This week,
Mukherjee put a figure to the rising defense ties
between India and Israel. The fillip to
India-Israel defense relations happened under the
previous Bharatiya Janata Party administration of
Atal Bihari Vajpayee, but the current dispensation
under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has kept up
the tempo. Israel has now overtaken France, the UK
and other countries to become the second-largest
defense supplier to India. The value of military
arsenal works out close to $1 billion each year
for the past three years.
Russia remains
India's biggest defense partner, notching over
$1.5 billion every year due to the deeply
entrenched relations between the two countries
that hark back to the Cold War era. Three-quarters
of the equipment in use by the armed forces is of
Russian origin, requiring spares and maintenance.
However, it is increasingly becoming apparent that
the breakup of the Soviet Union has had its
impact, with Russia unable to keep up with the
latest upgrades in technology.
This major
chunks of the modernization efforts of the Indian
armed forces are now being sourced from Israel.
One of the biggest deals has been the $1.1 billion
contract signed in March 2004 for three Phalcon
early warning radar and communications systems to
fulfill the air force's long-standing demand for
AWACS (airborne warning and control systems).
Israel is supplying the latest technology that
ranges from Green Pine radars and Barak
anti-missile systems to Searcher-11 and Heron UAVs
(unmanned aerial vehicles) and ship-borne
electronic warfare systems. A major project is in
place to modernize the Indian army, which includes
night-vision capabilities, Tavor-21 5.56mm
standard assault rifles, Galil 7.62mm sniper
rifles and advanced VHF radios.
The
Mukherjee-Rumsfeld agreement in June this year is
also expected to open up new vistas for India. The
deal is extremely vast in scope and envisages a
broad range of joint activities, including
engaging in multi-national operations,
strengthening the two militaries to promote
security and defeat terrorism, and deepening
capacity to take on the proliferation of weapons
of mass destruction. A new panel called the
defense procurement and production group has been
established to oversee defense trade and a joint
working group will carry out a mid-year review to
be overseen by the US-India defense policy group.
Peace may be the motto of the
Indo-Pakistani talks, but there is no letting up
on the arms race.
Siddharth
Srivastava is a New Delhi-based journalist.
(Copyright 2005 Asia Times Online Ltd.
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