Israel and Pakistan: Blessed from
East and West By Ramtanu Maitra
The not-so-sudden improvement in relations
between Israel and Pakistan - which came out in
the open in early September following the meeting
in Istanbul between Israeli Foreign Minister
Silvan Shalom and Pakistani Foreign Affairs
Minister Khursheed Kasuri - had the blessings of
their two powerful common friends, Washington and
Beijing.
According to a recent paper by
Bethany Tindall and Pramit Mitra, published by the
Washington-based think tank, the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), "The
Pakistani move was timed to follow Israel's
withdrawal from Gaza, but it was built
on
years of cautious low-level contacts ... " Tindall
and Mitra do not explain, however, what prompted
Tel Aviv to advance the relationship, almost
giving an impression that it was always
Islamabad's call, and that Tel Aviv was simply the
ever-willing groom.
As is now plain,
however, the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza has not
made Islamic nations joyous enough to befriend Tel
Aviv. To a section of Arabs, and to most of the
Islamic nations, Israel's image has not improved
dramatically following the withdrawal of Israel
from a little bit of the large territory it has
kept occupied in Palestine.
Moreover, one
may be permitted to think that the bad blood that
flows between the neighboring Muslim nations and
Israel may not center entirely around Palestine or
the religious differences between the nations, but
rather stems from considerations never emphasized
adequately, such as what Israel represents and
whom, really, Israel wants to befriend.
The recent gruesome suicide bombings in
Amman indicate that Jordan's overt exhibition of
bonhomie toward Israel has not met with approval
from all Arabs and may have now drawn the country
into the Middle East quagmire fully. It is likely
that President General Pervez Musharraf and his
Pakistani administration will be evaluating these
developments carefully before making their next
move.
The American interest The
American interest in Pakistan's development of
full diplomatic relations with Israel has many
angles. To begin with, both are allies who have
seldom broken ranks with the US and, yet, these
two nations do not have diplomatic relations with
each other.
Secondly, Pakistan, perhaps
one of the least orthodox of Islamic nations, has
no intrinsic reason to be anti-Israel. But being
part of the grouping of Islamic nations, Pakistan
chose, out of its own volition, not to recognize
Israel. If, and when, Pakistan recognizes Israel,
it would be considered a major success of the US
to breach the stone wall built against Israel by
the Islamic nations.
Egypt and Jordan -
two strong allies of the US - have already
breached the wall of Islamic hostilities toward
Israel. According to Washington, there is no
reason why Pakistan should not do the same.
In addition, a strengthening of
Israel-Pakistan relations would take away some of
the "headaches" that bother Washington from time
to time vis-a-vis the Indian subcontinent. For
instance, Israel was a virtual non-entity in the
Indian subcontinent prior to 1992 when India
finally recognized Israel as a full diplomatic
partner. Since then the flower of friendship has
bloomed all over, particularly in the area of arms
and ammunitions. Previously, India used to depend
very heavily on Russia for its weapons, but now,
thanks to India's overtly friendly relations with
Israel, the entire West, and the US in particular,
has become a source for India's weapons
procurement.
But Washington has also
worried that Israel, a friend, is providing India,
also a friend, with the latest weapons and defense
technologies, which could be used against another
friend, Pakistan. New Delhi, in particular, was
eager to give the impression to the rest of the
world that Israeli defense and technological help
to India was based partly on Israel's worries
about Pakistan, an Islamic nation working
hand-in-glove with the expressed enemies of
Israel.
In reality, however, things were
never that way. Both India and Pakistan, who for
years were openly singing hosannas for the
Palestinians, were at the same time quietly making
contacts with Israel under the watchful eyes of
Washington.
If, and when, Pakistan becomes
a "friend" of Israel, the US expects significant
benefits. To begin with, Israeli defense armaments
and technologies would then be going to Pakistan,
and the White House will not have to deal with
Congress to make sure that the arms balance in the
subcontinent remains intact.
Israel can be
expected to do Washington's bidding and keep
Pakistan pretty well-stocked. More important
perhaps will be the nuclear weapons issue. In the
past, a section in Islamabad had alleged an Indian
intent, with covert Israeli help, to take out
Pakistan's nuclear capabilities. This created an
extreme state of tension between the nations.
Again, the reality was altogether different.
Israel had no intent of destroying Pakistan's
nuclear capabilities.
In a recent news
report, former Pakistani foreign secretary, Riaz
Khokhar, revealed that as ambassador of Pakistan
to the US, he met the Israeli ambassador in
Washington when there were rumors of a preemptive
Israeli strike against Pakistan's nuclear
installations, but Israel made it clear that it
had no such plan. At the same time, Kokhar said,
the then-Israeli foreign minister was in China
where he made a similar assurance.
The
expected development of diplomatic relations
between the two also has the potential to change
bilateral equations between Islamabad and New
Delhi. According to Tindall and Mitra, Islamabad
or Washington may believe that moving on the
Pakistan-Israel relationship now will prompt
Israel to reconsider the Indo-Israeli military and
security relationship in light of the opportunity
to expand Israel's diplomatic profile in the
Muslim world.
In addition, Islamabad, or
Washington, may be thinking, as the CSIS paper
contends, that "by moving ahead now, however, the
Pakistani government may give Israel second
thoughts about deepening the Indo-Israeli military
and security relationship, in light of the
opportunity to expand Israel's diplomatic profile
in the Muslim world."
Chinese
interests The Pakistani move to befriend
Israel, if one could describe the developments as
entirely a unilateral action by Islamabad, is also
being well received in China - and for good
reason. Beijing's pro-Palestine position never had
anything to do with backing the Muslims or the
alleged illegitimacy of Israel being carved out of
Palestine. China supported the Palestinians - but
only verbally - during the Cold War days because
Israel was part of the "imperialist West" and most
of Arabia was part of the developing world.
At the same time, however, this did not
prevent China from having a covert arms-related
relationship with Israel going back to the 1960s.
Nonetheless, the relationship had little
diplomatic dimension. But China has changed,
perhaps more dramatically than any other major
nation during the post-Cold War days, and is
looking to develop stronger links with the West -
diplomatic, economic, financial and military.
In this context Israel is an important
element, as China acknowledges frankly. Israeli
Foreign Minister Shalom visited China in November
2004 and this June, Chinese Foreign Minister Li
Zhaoxing visited Israel. The meeting was billed as
a chance to discuss a wide range of topics, from
the Middle East peace process to issues of global
interest. But reports from Jerusalem indicated
that it was Israel's sales of military technology
to China that was making the real news, because of
the strains it has put on ties with Israel's most
important ally, the US.
What riled
Washington stems from the sale of unmanned
aircraft technology to China by the state-owned
Israel Aircraft Industries in the early 1990s.
American officials say some of the parts were
shipped back to Israel last year for an upgrade.
Israel has said the units were simply undergoing
routine maintenance, but Israeli military
officials have, nonetheless, stopped work on the
aircraft.
According to Israeli media
reports, the US imposed a series of sanctions on
the Israeli arms industry in recent months because
of its sales to China. Washington has also
suspended cooperation on several projects, frozen
delivery of some equipment and is even refusing to
answer telephone calls from Israeli defense
officials.
Like Washington, Beijing's
interest in a developed diplomatic relationship
between Pakistan and Israel has multiple
dimensions. China views the Israeli arms and
defense technologies - most of which were salted
away from the Pentagon over the decades - as being
of great importance.
It is also likely
that China believes that it could develop a
"special relationship" with Israel centered on
Pakistan. That would also help China to make
Israel less dependant on the US, while at the same
time not creating an animus in the relationship
with Washington.
It is no secret that
China is fully committed to Pakistan's well-being.
Pakistan has always been an excellent friend of
China and, in return, China has indeed helped
Pakistan with its nuclear and defense
capabilities. In the coming years, Pakistan's
physical proximity to Arabian and Persian oil and
gas fields makes it an important transit area for
developing Beijing's thinly populated, but
strategically volatile, western China.
Like Islamabad, Beijing was also concerned
that Israel, goaded by India, might attack
Pakistan's nuclear weapons under the pretext of
taking out the "Islamic atom bomb". Under such
circumstances, Beijing believed, there was a
strong possibility that New Delhi would emerge
militarily unchallenged in the region and it would
then be extremely difficult for Beijing to court
Tel Aviv for its various arms and defense
technologies.
In case Pakistan's nuclear
capabilities were eliminated, China will be
befriending a weak Pakistan. No doubt then,
well-developed Israel-Pakistan relations would
remove some of China's long-term worries about the
South Asia region.
Potential
pitfalls Despite receiving support and
blessings from the two most-powerful nations,
however, the transformation of a covert bilateral
relationship into full diplomatic relations faces
some opposition from within Pakistan.
The
powerful Islamist party, with a strong base in the
provinces of Balochistan and North-West Frontier
Province (NWFP) - both bordering the volatile
Afghanistan, the Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) has
publicly deplored the fact, as they characterize
it, that the military rulers have been taking
decisions against the interests of the nation and
the country.
MMA leaders said the whole
world was aware of the atrocities let loose by
Israel on the Palestinians, and to consider giving
Tel Aviv recognition was tantamount to stabbing
the Palestinians in the back. The Imamia Students
Organization, Karachi chapter, staged a rally once
the Istanbul meeting became public, burned US and
Israeli flags and adopted a resolution against
Islamabad taking any further step that could lead
to the formal recognition of Israel.
The
Islamic Resistance Movement of Hamas has also
denounced the meeting and urged Pakistan not to
fall into the trap of seeing the Gaza pullout as
synonymous with the end of occupation of
Palestinian land by the Israelis.
But
beyond those initial harsh responses, critics of
Islamabad have been careful. The Musharraf
administration has swamped the print media with
arguments in favor of developing full diplomatic
relations with Israel. One of the most important
points pro-Pakistani analysts have made is that
Islamabad's policy centers around the political
and economic necessity of rapprochement with the
US. Israel and the Jewish lobby in Washington,
they pointed out, is one of the ways of reaching
the US for countries in the Muslim and Arab world.
For its part, the Palestinian Authority
says it is "worried" about Pakistan's diplomatic
contact with Israel as the Jewish state. "It is
not good to give Israel gifts before it really
implements the peace process, not only in Gaza,
but, the West Bank and Jerusalem," Palestine's
Deputy Prime Minister Nabil Shaath told reporters.
According to some observers, the real
threats against development of a healthy
Pakistan-Israel relationship are Islamic
militants, the future policies of the US vis-a-vis
Islamic nations and Israel's policy toward the
West Bank and Jerusalem. For instance, if the US
chooses to go for "regime change" in Syria and
Iran, it is almost a certainty that Israel's
shadow in the background cannot be kept hidden.
Under those circumstances, Musharraf,
notwithstanding his best interests, will find it
difficult to move forward with diplomatic
relations with Israel.
(Copyright 2005
Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved. Please
contact us for information on sales, syndication and republishing
.)
